Joined October 2016
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This is me showing off, sorry guys 😀 On the left, Qullamaggie's equity curve (Rs) in 2021. On the right, my equity curve (Rs) in 2025. KQ hit rate was 28.2%, mine was 28%. His biggest drawdown was ~30% (with 0.5% risk per trade estimated), mine was ~9%. I'm getting closer to my hero 😅 and I still have room to improve.
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The market is still quite concentrated and a few sectors that could've moved are too shy. And I don't like the price action in general. And this gap up in the Qs is asking for a pullback...
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I like the idea of Quantum taking off from here... let's see if it happens...
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The 2 leading names in the autonomous driving theme: Bought $AEVA on Friday and I'm watching $OUST today (gapping up).
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My watchlist for today is up on YT: youtu.be/s8CTQZsXujg $OUST and $INOD among my favorites for today.
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It's becoming clearer by the day that you can't rely on some closed source AI model to help you run critical areas of your business. You have to be able to control those processes you automate. I think closed source AI should be used to generate the software that automates, and to create automated tasks, and anything that's research, innovation, even marketing material, or training, etc... And then using open source models for those jobs like emails, customer services and support, etc. These areas will definitely expand in the near future and beyond. In my humble opinion, using closed source AI for every day automations is too risky for a business.
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
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BTW, I just unsubscribed to @AnthropicAI. It's great having free markets. 🙂
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Watchlist for today is up on YT: youtu.be/KJlHgOyDINY $SPCX IPO today. I'm only watching it for a potential day trade (I know :D). Be careful out there, we're still in a chop zone.
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I think it'll rally for a few days and then drop and build a bottom.
Nearly 50% odds on Polymarket that SPCX rises 20% ($2.2TN market cap) on its first day of trading, and 84% odds it closes above its offering price.
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Bought some $HOOD. Not even 20% exposure. I'm taking it slow for now...
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I wonder if many people are buying $SPCE thinking they're buying $SPCX ... 🤔
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Bought some $SPCE and it took off 🫢🚀 Tight leash in all positions. Anything weak I close immediately. Got some $CRDO and some $LQDA too.
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ManuCap retweeted
The #Cybersecurity theme is trying to hold the fall. I general, I'd expect some sideways before attempting another rally, but some names are displaying relative strength and, if the market turns around, a hard bounce may happen. Let's review some of the strongest names in this sector: $CRWD - leading. It's near it's ATH. A bit slower in terms of ADR. It couldn't recapture the 20 day MA yesterday, so if it rejects it this week, it may need more time to set up. $DDOG - another leader. Had 5x average volume post-report and a very strong rally. It held the 20 day MA twice, showing relative strength. It's also very close to its ATH. $OKTA - close follower. It's one of the strongest in terms of being above the 20 day MA. Had very strong volume post-report and has the highest ADR in the leading pack. I wouldn't discard a hard bounce if the market reacts soon (which is getting a more difficult situation by the day, with these deep black candles). $NSIT - Kind of following, since it's coming from a deep bottom, but had the shallowest pullback in this theme. Lowest volume of the bunch. I like this relative strength. $TENB - Following. What I like of this name is, if it puts a nice setup, there's resistance above, which could be pierced fast, and the pullback is not that deep. On the other hand, it didn't have a strong buy volume post-report. If this theme holds, and the market turns around, any of these names could make a another move up. Let me know your comments or questions 🙂
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The #Cybersecurity theme is trying to hold the fall. I general, I'd expect some sideways before attempting another rally, but some names are displaying relative strength and, if the market turns around, a hard bounce may happen. Let's review some of the strongest names in this sector: $CRWD - leading. It's near it's ATH. A bit slower in terms of ADR. It couldn't recapture the 20 day MA yesterday, so if it rejects it this week, it may need more time to set up. $DDOG - another leader. Had 5x average volume post-report and a very strong rally. It held the 20 day MA twice, showing relative strength. It's also very close to its ATH. $OKTA - close follower. It's one of the strongest in terms of being above the 20 day MA. Had very strong volume post-report and has the highest ADR in the leading pack. I wouldn't discard a hard bounce if the market reacts soon (which is getting a more difficult situation by the day, with these deep black candles). $NSIT - Kind of following, since it's coming from a deep bottom, but had the shallowest pullback in this theme. Lowest volume of the bunch. I like this relative strength. $TENB - Following. What I like of this name is, if it puts a nice setup, there's resistance above, which could be pierced fast, and the pullback is not that deep. On the other hand, it didn't have a strong buy volume post-report. If this theme holds, and the market turns around, any of these names could make a another move up. Let me know your comments or questions 🙂
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(cont) $TENB chart.
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Entered a few small trades to test the waters, but only $RXT is working... And the Qs are hitting LOD... I'm staying put.
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Many Software/SaaS names are trying to hold the fall. These are some of the strongest: $GTLB, $SNOW, $AGYS (lower volume).
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Anthropic released a new model, 'Fable 5'. This constant updating with more capable models every few weeks smells like recursive self improvement (the AIs improve themselves automatically, AKA 'the singularity'). They said last week they're not there yet, but recognized their engineers are barely writing code themselves, now mostly prompting and reviewing. We're living through very interesting times.
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