Our Goldman Sachs Research economists forecast one more hike in July before a full stop for the year. By November, they expect core inflation will have come in meaningfully lower for several months and the conditions needed to bring it down the rest of the way will be in place.
ALT A pause. After 10 consecutive rate hikes, the Federal Reserve finally pressed pause this month.
ALT With a hawkish surprise. But they also suggested they might need two more hikes in 2023 to get inflation down to where they want it, rather than the one additional hike many experts had expected.
ALT Inflation is coming down, but slowly. Chair Powell said one main reason for the hawkishness was the disappointingly slow decline of core inflation so far this year. We’re on our way, but not there yet.
ALT Slowing their pace. The Fed believes a slower pace of tightening is appropriate as the fed funds rate moves closer to its expected peak.