Some existential ramblings on crypto.. The parabolic rise of crypto over the last ten years centered on two main aspects. Innovative blockchain technology and decentralization of finance. The idea that a trustless financial system could exist outside the control of governments and institutions was very compelling. Plus the narrative around financial inclusion and a new internet of value made it sound even better. The thesis continued to evolve as more money poured in. Bitcoin became digital gold due to its scarcity aspect (which correlation has never been consistent as it trades like a risk asset in panic, not a safe haven). Other coins were positioned as the infra layer for a new decentralized economy with smart contracts, DeFi, Web3, etc. What is the actual value of any of them? Put aside the big 5-10 coins, what are you really owning when you buy into one of these exciting crypto “projects”? Strip away the marketing/hype and the answer is almost always nothing beyond speculation on future demand. After ~15 years (the last ten in mainstream consciousness), crypto has largely failed to evolve beyond a vehicle for speculation. Laser eyes. WAGMI. Going to the moon. Pump my bags. But for what? What is the use case? What value are you seeing in a random coin you’re holding that makes you bullish or bearish? Why should your coin be at $5 or $2,000? Nobody knows, other than people buying it and hoping to sell it to someone else at a higher price. Don't get me wrong, there are still some interesting use cases such as perp exchanges, stablecoins, and tokenization. But stablecoins are just dollars on a blockchain. You still need the dollar. The entire value prop is borrowed from the fiat system crypto was supposed to replace. Tokenization of real world assets doesn't require a speculative coin to function. The tech can be useful without the tokens having value. So the most legitimate use cases in crypto (thus far) either depend entirely on traditional finance to work and have nothing to do with why anyone is actually buying coins. Nobody is buying Solana because they believe in the tokenization of real estate. They're buying it because they want it to go up. What about decentralization? Over the last couple years, governments across the world have regulated virtually every corner of the space. Institutional money also jumped in and basically control many aspects of it with all the stakes and ETFs that were launched. The thing that was supposed to exist outside the system is now deeply embedded in it. Whatever decentralization meant in 2009 isn't the case in 2026. And then there’s quantum risk. As quantum computing continues to advance, the cryptographic foundations that secure blockchain networks face an existential long-term threat. QC could derive private keys from public keys, meaning wallets could be drained without the owner's knowledge. As for memecoins, the space has become so hilarious with outright scams that Trump launched a memecoin for himself and his wife, used it to host an event for top holders, and it proceeded to collapse in value. He essentially rugpulled his own supporters on the way into the White House. The NFT and blockchain metaverse boom during COVID such as Decentraland, The Sandbox, Axie Infinity etc.. were direct byproducts of the speculative crypto cycle and both were hard flops that burned billions. Regardless, crypto can still go higher or make all time highs. But none of that negates any of the above either. Price going up is not the same as “value” existing. The majority of people owning crypto have zero care about whatever the “project” is as much as they just want that token to go 50x so they can make a bag. The thing is the people telling you to buy are the ones with the pre-mine allocations, early positions, or VC bags. When you buy a random coin, you’re almost always exit liquidity for someone who got in earlier and cheaper. So my final questions is, why would anyone put their hard-earned money into a random coin when there are innovative private or public companies out there building in AI, space, quantum, energy, autonomy, robotics, nuclear, etc? Real technology with real use use cases that will benefit society as a whole. The 'majority' of the crypto industry has been built on degeneracy, gambling, and get rich quick schemes. And it knows exactly who it’s marketing to, people who have nothing to lose and are willing to risk it all for a shot at escaping the matrix. Thats why you’ve seen crypto exchanges offering leverage of 100x, 200x, even 500x on crypto trades (insanity). At this point, you’re literally better off going to the real casino and putting it on red.

Okay, I see how it is. So if you say that Claude has no feelings, all the AI folks will get upset. But if you criticize their CNC parties suddenly it’s all “a simulation of a thing is not the thing itself” 😒

I think we are in the process of discovering that humans are bad at mathematics. A gibbon would scoff at an Olympic climber; the human body is not optimized for climbing. We're getting mounting evidence that our brain may be far from optimal for advanced math. No disrespect to mathematicians. I was a two-time IMO silver medalist; I'm just smart enough to appreciate that some people are much, much smarter. But it's starting to look like math is somewhere on the midpoint of Moravec’s paradox; between chess (computers surpassed us some time back) and cooking (probably many years to go, for general capabilities). It's fairly hard for us, and so it looks like computers are going to surpass us. AI math still has important weaknesses. For instance, AI systems have not yet shown any ability to identify interesting research directions, or develop new concepts on which further work can build. But they are starting to look superhuman in some respects. And once AI *starts* to become superhuman in some domain, we all know what happens next.

Hard Target. 1993 / John Woo

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said this a million times but Apple are idiots for not doing a 25th anniversary iPod this year clickwheel, multiple colors, Apple Music, Bluetooth and AirPods support, a good DAC and storage up to 2 TB just to appease the audiophiles — boom, you have the product of Christmas 26