Talking Sense on Housing | CEO Intrapac Property / Past President UDIA (National) / Director Lightning Broadband / Podcaster @TheHomeGroundAU / YPO
Joined March 2009
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Maxwell Shifman retweeted
Apr 15
Jacinta Allan is already under fire over her new-look cabinet, as prominent property industry figures accuse her of neglecting key sectors by overloading senior ministers with critical portfolios. > bit.ly/4dPuGR9
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Apr 8
๐คฏ Victoriaโs COVID Fast Track Planning program promised speed when it mattered most.
6 years later:
โข 0 of 19 projects approved in the announced timeframe
โข Only 2 of 19 have commenced construction
Read more in @theage
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Apr 8
Intrapacโs Kinley project (former Lilydale Quarry) was one of them.
Rezoning approved Jan 2022.
Yet construction still hasnโt begun due to prolonged process delays across multiple authorities.
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Apr 8
This was meant to stimulate the economy and deliver homesโfast.
Instead, itโs another reminder that headlines donโt house people.
In a housing crisis, every year counts.
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Mar 3
I was asked by @theheraldsun to opine on the policy announcements from @VictorianLabor and @LiberalVictoria.
My thoughts were slightly truncated in print, so here is what I actually said in full.
Labor Party
โ
Positives
โข Reduced appeal rights and deemed to comply standards will reduce unnecessary and vexatious delays on compliant projects
โข Improved townhouse code will help gentle densification in inner and middle rings
โNegatives
โข Activity Centres program delivers theoretical gains only. It ignores high construction costs and subdued demand relative to other types of homes.
โข "Horizon" greenfield PSP release program is substantially slower than in the past and remains behind schedule.
โข Infrastructure overspend in SRL precincts takes away from spend needed in other emerging areas
Liberal Party
โ
Positives
โข Fast tracked PSP program has potential to make a big housing supply difference - as long as infrastructure is delivered to match
โข Expanding regional growth focus will help offset growth challenges in Metro Melbourne
โNegatives
โข Expanding CBD zone does not improve apartment feasibility
โข More detail needed on infrastructure funding to match greenfield rollout
โข Need to ensure middle ring remains open to gentle densification
๐คI'm sure many more announcements to come into the lead up to 28 November.
#housingsupply #elections #policyreform #victoria #planningreform #feasibility
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23 Dec 2025
How do Israel-Palestine protests relate to antisemitism, Jew hate and Islamism? linkedin.com/pulse/how-do-isโฆ
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Maxwell Shifman retweeted
18 Dec 2025
We see @VictorianLabor announcing higher taxes and higher property price today, to build their white elephant @suburbanloop.
In 20 years from now you will have a choice - get into an autonomous car, that will pick you up from your door and drop you directly where you want for half the price of getting on a train, that you will have to walk kmโs to the station at both ends of your trip.
This isnโt just economic vandalism, itโs blatant corruption, jobs for unions to stay in power. They shouldnโt just be kicked out of parliament, those responsible should be considered for criminally prosecution for intentionally and fraudulently misappropriating taxpayers money.
#Auspol2025
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18 Dec 2025
โLet's do some quick @suburbanloop "value capture" math โ๏ธ:
- Land Tax ($5.7B) - Not value capture. It's a cynical redirection of existing state taxes, robbing funding from other things.
- 70,000 dwellings contributions ($2.9B) - quick math shows this is an average of $41,428/dwelling? #mathaintmathin. At the new Activity Centre $11,500 rate = $805 million, growing to ~$34,000 per dwelling -from 2035. Developers can't make projects #feasible now, let alone with additional cost imposts. Don't forget the actual the uplift is only 25,000 dwellings over status quo.
- Windfall Gains Tax ($450M) - astounding if it delivers this much across the precincts based on current valuations and exemptions
- Carpark Levy ($800M) - talk about disincentivising commercial investment in these areas! The current Melbourne CBD levy raises around $110m p.a., so what fraction of that would SRL precincts do? 10%?
- "State Initiated" Development ($1.6B) - Made up number, basically assuming government land has zero value as-is. I'd be amazed if $1.6B was even the completed value of developments, which is not remotely the same as creating $1.6B of (increased) value.
There is no conceivable way these value capture mechanisms will get close to delivering $11.5 billion of new value, especially once the double counting on land tax is removed (robbing Peter to pay Paul...).
#SRL #boondoggle
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11 Dec 2025
Max Shifman, said the government needed to stop treating property development like its โpersonal cheque bookโ and start clearing planning backlogs and boosting funding in growth areas.
โQuit focusing on announcements and new processes, and just get stuff done,โ he said.
โAnd roll out better infrastructure spending spread across Victoria.โ
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10 Dec 2025
This @GrattanInst and @yimbymelbourne nonsense has to cease.
The chart compares the price of all homes against all "new" units - "new" being sales of units within the last 5 years.
1. Established houses have more space/utility (bedrooms etc.) than what they have compared as "new" unit. Not a like:like comparison.
2. So-called "new" dwellings, especially in the 10km inner ring, are mostly small 1-2 bedrooms units in high rise which have for the most part lost value over their new price.
3. The replacement cost for the same units in today's market would be anywhere between 30% and 100% more than the prevailing "existing" price due to cost escalation. In many cases paying more for a new, smaller unit than an existing detached house.
4. Comparing a new like:like (i.e. 3bed home vs 3bed apartment) you would find the cost of the apartment is likely greater than the median house price.
9 Dec 2025
New apartments & townhouses are cheaper than the old detached houses they replace.
We should allow cheaper housing options to be built where people want to live.
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29 Nov 2025
๐@metrotunnelvic opens tomorrow, so let's get some facts straight
1๏ธโฃ ๐๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐น๐? ๐ข๐ฟ ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ฒ?
The original 2011 Business Case stated it would be open "by 2026" to avoid "CBD rail gridlock". It's squeaked into the end of 2025. ๐๐ต'๐ด ๐ณ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ต๐ช๐ฎ๐ฆ.
People arguing it's late are confusing Metro with the West Gate Tunnel, which is indeed years late.
2๏ธโฃ ๐๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฏ๐๐ฑ๐ด๐ฒ๐?
No. The 2016 updated Business Case forecast was $10.9B. It's ended up around $13.5B, 24% higher.
Edit: this is capital cost only. The smoke and mirrors is the true cost is around $15.5B once financing and setup costs are considered - a 42% increase.
3๏ธโฃ ๐๐ผ๐ฒ๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ผ๐บ๐ถ๐ฐ ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ฒ?
Highly unlikely. The 2016 Business Case showed a wafer-thin Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) of 1.1, lifted to 1.5 by considering "Wider Economic Benefits" (WEB) - ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ต๐ช๐ค๐ข๐ญ ๐จ๐ข๐ช๐ฏ๐ด ๐ง๐ณ๐ฐ๐ฎ ๐ข๐จ๐จ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ข๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฐ๐ฅ๐ถ๐ค๐ต๐ช๐ท๐ช๐ต๐บ ๐ค๐ญ๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ฆ๐ณ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ.
A BCR should be >1.0 to make a project worthwhile.
The cost increases alone mean the underlying BCR drops to 0.77,or 1.0 if the flaky WEB are considered.
๐๐๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ฃ๐ช๐จ๐จ๐ฆ๐ณ ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฐ๐ฃ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ฎ ๐ช๐ด ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ข๐ด๐ด๐ถ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ด ๐ข๐ณ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐ณ๐ช๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ด๐ฉ๐ช๐ฑ. Public transport usage remains 23% below pre-pandemic levels, let alone the higher level projected by 2025 in the Business Case. That kills the assumptions on the theoretical economic gains, which are being killed with current utilisation of the CBD and surrounds.
๐ค ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐๐บ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐
Metro Tunnel is definitely an engineering and architectural achievement, one that will reshape movement patterns around the city. But let's be real: the โ๐ข๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ด๐ค๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ฅ๐ถ๐ญ๐ฆโ opening and โ๐ต๐ณ๐ข๐ฏ๐ด๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ข๐ญ ๐ฃ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ง๐ช๐ต๐ดโ are definitely overstated.
๐๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฝ๐ ๐
๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐น๐
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4 Dec 2025
๐งฎTime for some #housingtarget math. ๐๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ข๐ช๐ฎ: 1.2 million new homes from 1 July 2024 to 30 June 2029.
Follow along...
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4 Dec 2025
๐คWhat is we wanted to catch up from here? Well, at the 95% CR, 1,263,158 approvals are needed over 5 years.
With 418,493 approvals to-date, ๐ฎ๐ป๐ผ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ด๐ฐ๐ฐ,๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐พ๐๐ถ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ป๐ฒ๐
๐ ๐ฏ๐ฎ ๐บ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ต๐. ๐ฎ๐ฒ,๐ฏ๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ต ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐บ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ต, ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ.
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4 Dec 2025
๐๐ช๐ฉ ๐๐ฃ๐ค๐ฉ๐๐๐ง ๐ฌ๐๐ฎ, ๐๐ฃ ๐๐ข๐ข๐๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ ๐ฒ๐ฐ.๐ฐ% ๐๐ฃ๐๐ง๐๐๐จ๐ ๐ค๐ฃ ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐ก๐๐จ๐ฉ ๐ฎ๐๐๐ง'๐จ ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐๐๐, ๐ข๐๐๐ฃ๐ฉ๐๐๐ฃ๐๐ ๐๐ฉ ๐ฉ๐๐๐ฉ ๐ฅ๐๐๐ ๐๐ค๐ง ๐ฏ๐ฎ ๐ข๐ค๐ฃ๐ฉ๐๐จ.
๐ฏDoes anyone still think the target is achievable?
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