I've stopped reading Gulf war headlines. Here's what I track instead. We run an India-focused equity fund. 85% of India's crude comes from imports. Half of that normally passes through Hormuz. So yes — this crisis is personal. But the information environment right now is garbage. Trump says the war ends tomorrow. Iran says Hormuz is shut forever. One analyst says $150 oil, another says $60. You can't build a portfolio view on this. So I've narrowed it down to 4 signals. These are priced by people with real money on the line. They don't lie. 1. Ship insurance premiums through Hormuz This is the single best signal. Lloyd's underwriters have billions at stake on every pricing call. Before the war, insuring a tanker through Hormuz cost 0.25% of the ship's value. Today it's 3.5–10% — and almost nobody is buying. A $100M tanker that cost $250K to insure now costs up to $10M. When this drops below 2%, the people with the most to lose are telling you it's getting safer. No press conference can replicate that. 2. How many ships are actually crossing Every ship carries a GPS tracker (AIS). You can count exactly how many cross Hormuz each day. Before: 100 . Now: 8. That's a 92% collapse. You can't spin a ship being somewhere it isn't. Iran is letting some Chinese and Indian ships through, but it's a trickle. When this number crosses 30–40, trade is resuming. You can track this free on the WTO Hormuz Trade Tracker. 3. Paper oil vs real oil This one most people miss entirely. Brent crude (the headline price) is at $112. But Dubai physical — what Asian buyers actually pay for delivered oil — is at $126. That's a $14 gap. It exists because Trump's comments keep pushing paper prices down. Traders call it jawboning. But the refiners buying cargo aren't getting any discount. If you're looking at Brent to assess India's oil bill, you're looking at the wrong number. 4. The mid-April cliff Multiple emergency measures expire around the same time. The 400 million barrel SPR release runs dry ~April 15. The US waiver letting India buy Russian crude expires. Formosa Plastics has declared force majeure from April 1. Right now these stopgaps are keeping the supply gap at ~5 mb/d. Without them, BCA Research estimates it doubles to 10 mb/d — the largest crude disruption ever. If Hormuz doesn't reopen by mid-April, we're in uncharted territory. Bottom line: track the insurance premium, the ship count, the paper-physical spread, and the April timeline. Everything else is noise.

I am not surprised that Ebiras were mentioned in this article as the ethnic group that is acting as the launching pad for Jihadist campaigns across Western Nigeria. The radicalisation of Ebiras, political Empowerment of the Ebiras as a political force in Kogi state and the suspicious death of Governor Audu between 2015 to 2023 are all linked. Jihadist attacks across Yorubaland might happen which is why the Yoruba race must be prepared and why the Yorubas of Kogi must be excised from Kogi state back to the Southwest Geopolitically.

U.S. company @Google is democratizing access to technology to help young people in Africa dive deeper into the innovation sweeping across the continent. Between October 7 and December 9, 2025, university students in Nigeria (aged 18 and above) can subscribe to 12 months of free access to the Google AI Pro plan. Visit gemini.google/students to create an account. Learn more: bit.ly/4pijzTe

Greatness comes from everywhere. 🇳🇬 Nigeria 🇳🇬 🧵👇 THREAD (1/14)

At the recently concluded Africa Oil Week in Ghana, our GM, Gas Business, James Makinde, spoke at the plenary session titled “From Development to Production: Navigating the Realities of Upstream Gas Success.” He emphasised our commitment to affordable and scalable pipeline gas, reinforcing our role in driving Africa’s energy independence. #SeplatEnergy #AOW2025 #AfricaOilWeek #EnergyTransition #FutureOfEnergy

Take a moment to listen to this message from Apostle Michael Orokpo. Thank you sir for sharing this powerful truth. God bless you! ---- hijack Reno Deji Level 7 Cash Flow Isheri Vincent Enyeama

Seplat Energy is driving growth in Nigeria's natural gas sector. With 850 MMscf/d processing capacity across three plants including the ANOH Gas Plant (300 MMscf/d) set for First Gas in 2025, we're advancing cleaner, more sustainable energy. We remain on track to end routine flaring for onshore assets by 2025, five years ahead of Nigeria's target, while expanding investments in LPG, CNG, and gas monetisation. #SeplatEnergy #TransformingLives #NigeriaGas #GasToPower #ANOHGasPlant #EnergyTransition #CNG #LPG #ZeroFlaring #GasMonetisation #CleanEnergy #NigeriaEnergy #NetZeroAfrica #SustainableDevelopment #AfricanEnergy #Gasinfrastructure

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June 12 1993, the first election I voted in. I didn't properly understand the core issues, but I voted based on my dad's conviction. All I knew was that I liked MKO's performance at the debate. A lot has happened since then.

Nigeria is raising the bar on upstream oil & gas reform. Today, I’m proud to share that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR has issued a landmark Presidential Order on Cost Efficiency a bold and pragmatic step to make Nigeria’s upstream sector more globally competitive, fiscally resilient, and investor aligned. At a time when oil prices are softening and capital is more selective, the Upstream Petroleum Operations Cost Efficiency Incentives Order (2025) does three powerful things: · Links tax incentives to verifiable cost savings · Establishes terrain-specific cost benchmarks (onshore, shallow water, deep offshore) · Caps credits to protect government revenue while rewarding efficient operators This Order builds on earlier reforms, including improved fiscal terms, faster contracting, and commercially-aligned local content rules. Now we are shifting from intent to execution with performance, discipline, and value at the center. Let’s work together to put every barrel to work—for our economy, for investors, and for the future of Nigeria’s energy security. The gazetted Order is available here on energyreforms.ng/publication…

Lagos State Fire Services Works!!!

NNPC/SEPLAT Joint Venture has announced the commencement of its 2025 National Undergraduate Scholarship Programme. The scholarship award is open to deserving undergraduate students of Federal and State Universities in Nigeria. Click here to find out more: seplatenergy.com/news-insigh… #SeplatEnergy #SeplatJV #NUSP #JVScholarship

Seplat Energy Plc announces its 2024 full year financial results. Click here to read full report. seplatenergy.com/media/zubcx…

In the district of Oluyole, there transpired a most magnificent carnival. When one speaks of carnivals in Ibadan, the Western G carnival is renowned for its abundance of merriment and delight. The populace, proclaim, "Oh, Western G carnival truly does” ~ Wasiu Alabi Pasuma.

Pls kindly share this job opportunity: This is the application for customs recruitment in Nigeria. To apply, please visit: recruitment.customs.gov.ng Important information: 1. Application period is 27th Dec to 2 Jan. 2. All educational qualifications are accepted with minimum being SSCE. 3. There is no limit on age. 4. State of origin is required. 5. There are different job categories. Category A, B and C. The job category will determine the education requirement. 6. You must be nigerian by birth. 7. Minimum height is 1.7m for men and 1.64m for women. 8. You must be medically fit physically and mentally, 9. Ex convicts are not allowed. 10. Cultists and members of secret societies are not allowed. Please check this attached leaflet. THIS IS NOT A PAID ADVERTISEMENT. Kindly share. You never know who it may help.

JOB ALERT Nigeria Customs Service is hiring to fill vacant positions. Eligible qualifications: SSCE NCE Diploma Degree Or related qualifications. Deadline: January 2, 2025 (One week) Click here to read and apply: recruitment.customs.gov.ng

We are delighted to announce that we have completed the acquisition of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited ("MPNU") from ExxonMobil Corporation. The transaction is transformative for Seplat Energy, more than doubling production and positioning the Company to drive growth and profitability, whilst contributing significantly to Nigeria’s future prosperity. For more information, visit our website or click here to read our corporate announcement- tools.euroland.com/tools/Pre…

McKinsey Lagos is hosting an in-person "Get To Know McKinsey" event at its Lagos office. For professionals with over 3 years experience post-graduation in any field. Deadline to apply: October 25 buff.ly/4dxeyzL

This intervention by the PENGASSAN President, Festus Osifo is a very important one. He provided a lot of clarity on the Dangote vs NNPCL crude supply saga.