Investor, former banker and CIO of Single Family Office
Joined February 2011
- Tweets 5,837
- Following 2,241
- Followers 1,540
- Likes 18,253
391 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
Jun 11
Goldman, the lead underwriter, is modeling explosive AI revenue growth for SpaceX.
Morningstar says the same AI unit "poses a material threat of value destruction."
Same company - it's almost as if two different businesses are being priced.
Tomorrow's $75bn IPO is not an opportunity or a trap – it's a test. The largest equity supply event in history, hitting a market that also has to absorb OpenAI and Anthropic right behind it.
What I'm watching from the first print:
1. Absorption: with a 3–4% float and Nasdaq-100 fast-track buying queued, a strong debut is the base case – and proves nothing. Watch breadth and equal-weight while $75bn is digested.
2. The cohort. SpaceX is the first wave. Each successive deal (Anthropic, OpenAI,...) arrives into a market that already absorbed the previous one.
Tomorrow's open will be loud and largely meaningless. The signal sits in the digestion, not the debut.
Full note below ⤓
nunoamadomendes.substack.com…
4
3
18
5,363
Nuno Mendes, CFA retweeted
Jun 12
So at least we can all finally agree now that @saylor isn't trustworthy. GM.
123
98
736
82,383
Jun 7
1/ Friday, the largest IPO in history lists: SpaceX at $1.75 trillion – a company losing $4.28bn a quarter, selling 3% of its shares, with the Nasdaq 100 forced to buy it 15 days later. It has company. And the biggest seller this year isn't even a tech company.
1
1
440
Jun 7
6/ The honest counter: $8tn sits in money funds, and I don't think the Fed hikes – it likely cuts still this year imho. But lower rates reprice supply; they don't absorb it. Cheap money is the wrong tool for a supply shock (be it oil price or the government's issuance, as it's well known).
1
147
Jun 7
7/ And... don't forget: 'I’m never wrong – it’s just my timing that sometimes sucks!' (Timing humility courtesy of @kevinmuir & @PatrickCeresna. Congratulations on the awesome @TheMarketHuddle, and thank you for what you’ve taught me throughout the years – I’m a big fan!!) The largest IPO in history can't tell you the top date. But it can tell you the sellers already have theirs. nunoamadomendes.substack.com…
2
118
Jun 1
1/ Years ago I sat in a room and listened to the man who now runs the Fed tell a story against himself.
A car. Bernanke on one side, Yellen on the other. "What do we do if QE fails? More. And if it works? We do more."
The room laughed. It wasn't a joke. It was a forecast.
1
3
288
Jun 1
5/ Which is why Warsh - an avowed hawk - can hold the line for a season and look right. But a dam is not a reversal. The water still runs one way, and it's rising behind the wall.
The man who told me how it ends is now paid to make sure it never comes true.
1
4
157
Jun 1
6/ The headlines will keep screaming. The market will keep printing records.
Both read the same country in two different units.
The work is learning to read the one nobody prints.
Issue Nº 5: substack.com/@nunoamadomende…
2
114
May 25
23 years of no. Then he filed.
Musk's IPO. Buffett's record cash. Bezos and Zuckerberg selling. Warsh — day one — shopping for a softer inflation metric.
Five postures, one direction. When the best-informed all move at once, you notice.
h/t @hkuppy — energy, uranium, platinum on the watchlist.
nunoamadomendes.substack.com…
3
8
123
153,643
May 22
1/ Week 10 of the largest physical oil disruption in modern history. 20% of global crude rerouted or halted. Brent at $100.
S&P 500, NASDAQ, KOSPI – all at all-time highs.
The consensus calls this complacency. I think the consensus is anchored to the wrong variable.
1
8
944
May 22
3/ Which is why earnings are accelerating, not breaking.
83% of S&P 500 beat EPS this quarter. AMD data center 57% YoY. April payrolls 115k vs 65k expected. VIX where it sat last summer.
Not how a market behaves when it believes an oil crisis will last.
1
5
659
May 22
4/ Either equities correct sharply, or the loudest energy voices are wrong. Both can't be true.
I lean strongly toward the second. (@hkuppy – would love your pushback on this)
Full piece — the framework, the evidence, and where I'd want to see it break:
nunoamadomendes.substack.com…
1
5
647