TRANSITION FROM THE FIAT MEASURE OF VALUE TO THE PHYSICAL-ENERGY ONE / PART 2 FULL ARTICLE - mintarion.substack.com/p/tra… The first part answered the question "why" The second part answers the question "how" By the spring of 2026, the settlement layer had ceased to be unified. It physically split into two circuits that no longer reduce to one another: • the Western one: Project Agorá / the digital euro / stablecoins under the GENIUS Act. • the Eurasian one: mBridge / BRICS Pay / the digital ruble / e-CNY — settlement that does not touch the dollar at all. both systems are heading toward the same thing — tokenization and atomic settlement, and this is essentially not a technical upgrade, but the materialization of a certain changeover. the energy-computational circuit has ceased to be a metaphor / AI data centers are counted in gigawatts / the price of PJM capacity 11x over 2 years / hyperscalers are buying up nuclear power — for the first time in a century, the one who holds the kilowatt is stronger than the one who holds the machine tool (and yes, they are not yet earning paper profits and the accounting does not balance, but who knows what will come next and how they will recoup the capital expenditures) The fiat order effectively held exactly as long as value could not be counted in physical units. but the most interesting rhetorical question is — so what does $BTC have to do with any of this at all? #Bitcoin #BTC #CBDC #DigitalRuble #DigitalEuro #eCNY #Stablecoins #GENIUSAct #mBridge #BRICSPay #ProjectAgora #ProofOfWork #EnergyMoney #ThermodynamicMoney #EnergyTheoryOfValue #ETV #DeDollarization #BRICS #Tokenization #AtomicSettlement #PJM #DataCenters #AIEnergy #NuclearPower #Hyperscalers #Stargate #EROI #Exergy #Kondratiev #Hayek #Triffin #Bancor #MonetaryReform #FiatCollapse #Macro #Geoeconomics #FinTech #Blockchain #Oracle #Chainlink

Spring 2023. SVB blows up in 48H, then Signature and First Republic follow. The fiasco: the bank loaded up on Treasuries at ~1.5% / rates got hiked / the securities went underwater. On paper everything's fine (at face value) In reality - a goose egg. Such "paper" losses across the system by the end of 2025 - ~$306B. Until recently the regulator promised to count it all honestly. Now let's break down the revamped scheme for 2026. The scheme: eSLR - FREED UP $219B On November 25, 2025, the @federalreserve / OCC / @FDICgov rewrote the leverage rule for systemically important banks. Tier 1 capital requirements at their "subsidiaries" were cut by ~28% - roughly $219B that they NO LONGER have to hold as a cushion. Vote at the Fed: 5 against 2 / Barr and Cook against ("overkill"). Passed anyway - took effect April 1, 2026. **Without a single vote in the House BASEL III ENDGAME The 2023 version raised requirements on the largest banks by nearly 30%. The current version: under the new Vice Chair for Supervision, Bowman - CUTS capital across the system by ~$87.7B. They called this move "proper calibration," but in fact it's a rollback of the tightening. AOCI It was precisely the failure to count underwater securities in capital that finished off SVB. Essentially the one place where they smeared the terms across 6 years, leaving room to "maneuver": regional banks' "don't count the losses" option (opt-out) is being eliminated, meaning the portfolio drawdown is finally being forced straight into capital. The transition is stretched out to 2032. In year one you exclude 100% of the loss, and only by 2032 - the goose egg. • What's actually happening? • Capital is being freed up NOW, while the one hole (the one that killed SVB) is being smeared out over 6 years at a leisurely pace. NOW THE MAIN THING - WHERE'S CONGRESS, WHICH WAS SUPPOSED TO PUT THE BRAKES ON THIS? Senator Warren tried to repeal eSLR via a resolution (S.J.Res.110), introduced March 4, 2026. After that it went to committee and quietly died (the resolution) without a single vote. 0 cosponsors the window closed. • So what's the trick of this whole act? • Publicly - "we've learned the lessons of SVB, the system is sturdier." • In fact: 1) the cushion was cut by $219B immediately 2) the Basel tightening was turned into a loosening 3) the one honest item (counting the losses) was put on the brakes until 2032. And all of this - by a decision of 3 agencies, bypassing the House Congress didn't even get to a vote. #FED #BANKING #SLR #DEBT #US

PLATTS DEEP: The Oil and Petroleum Products Market: Prices Are Falling, but Tension Is Migrating into the Spreads CHECK IT OUT ON SUBSTACK: mintarion.substack.com/p/the… #PLATTS #OIL #HORMUS #BRENT #NYMEX #WTI #TRAFIGURA #GLENCORE #VITOL

PLATTS DEEP: May 28-29, 2026 / Crude / Refined Products / and the New Configuration of Trade Flows - CHECK IT OUT ON SUBSTACK: mintarion.substack.com/p/pla… #PLATTS #OIL #HORMUS #BRENT #NYMEX #WTI #TRAFIGURA #GLENCORE #VITOL

new post on substack about #AI: substack.com/profile/3378302… #supplychains #tech #hyperscalers #NVDA #AIBOOM

BREAD = HEAVY LUXURY 2027 HRW 2026 = 14.0 MMT / -36% YoY THE MATTRESS IS BEING SAWED OPEN Previous snapshot: global ending stocks 283.1 MMT (8Y MAX) / India 3x norm / exporter stocks 30% Current snapshot: USDA on May 13 revised down all 3 parameters - global production / trade / stocks 2026/27. Top exporters cutting outflow / North Africa Middle East sitting on reduced imports. STOCKS PHYSICALLY EXIST, BUT they're STATIC / NON-TRADABLE. KANSAS SUFFERING Yield forecast: 38.9 bu/acre (3Y LOW). 80% of state area in drought. Production 218M bushels (5.9 MMT) final harvested acreage will shrink further. HRW good/excellent nationwide: 35%. HRW good/excellent in the Gulf-export zone: 10%. SRW: -15% prod. (8.2 MMT) SW winter: -3% (6.1 MMT) HRS acreage: -6% Northern Durum: -11% The sole bright spot - SRW in Ohio/Illinois/Kentucky 67% good-excellent. The "eastern soft" is holding up thanks to decent rains. THE CURVE BENT OVER Nearby vs Previous: KCBT HRW: $6.88 (was $7.055 - market pulled back ahead of the report / longs partially closed) CBOT SRW: $6.36 MIAX HRS: $6.85 Forward: *Where the cash premium sits MAY 2027 KCBT HRW: $7.255 - premium $0.37 MAY 2027 MIAX HRS: $7.38 - $0.53 MAY 2027 CBOT SRW: $6.93 - $0.57 The steepest contango of the season - market is not pricing in a drought reversal by new crop and is trading "the deep winter 2027 positions." BASIS FUTURES DOWN / FOB UP Gulf HRW 12: $308 (prev. $294 / $14 / 4.8%) PNW HRW 12: $301 (prev. $290 / $11) Gulf HRS 14: $322 (neutral) Gulf SRW: $261 ( $4) PNW SW: $257 ( $9) Gulf HRW 12 basis is now $1.5 over futures. PNW HRW 12 basis $1.3. Gulf holds a $0.20 premium - for quality Shahed Inc. **also in the Gulf zone, good/excellent quality is just 10% / accordingly the buyer pays a risk premium for actual grain ending up in the hold, not husks and a couple of Shaheds. **in fact "seasonal factors" are secondary, what we're observing now is a physical supply/demand dislocation, visible through the basis trade. THE FEED TROUGH Corn July: $4.56 (-$0.16 / W) Soybean July: $11.77 (-$0.31) Wheat/corn ratio: 6.88/4.56 = 1.51 (prev. 1.64 - compression because wheat fell less than corn) Parity = 1.07. **Blending wheat into feed is still more expensive than corn soymeal. *The entire grain impulse goes into milling - flour - bread/pasta/lavash, without dilution through meat/eggs/dairy. THE EXPORT BOOK Outstanding sales: 24.9 MMT / 16% vs same date last year. 2026/27 marketing year: 1.9 MMT already contracted on the upcoming crop. **Production drops 36%, yet contracting is running faster than last year. Importers are afraid it'll be worse by winter. MOROCCO SHUTS IMPORTS From June through July Morocco is closing soft wheat imports - own harvest doubled to 9 MMT after normal rains. For 2026/27 USDA pencils in a material drop in Moroccan imports overall. FREIGHT / FX Baltic Dry Index: 3,151 ( 5.8% / W) / monthly high / vessel demand is robust US Dollar Index: 99.27 ( 0.32%) Currencies / year: Argentine peso: -22.1% - competitor agro-exporter dumping in a depreciated currency, locally gets paid well Brazilian real: -10.3% - competitor on soy/corn has weakened Yen: -9.0% — Japan paying 9% on top in yen at the same $ prices Euro: 4.0% - EU imports slightly cheaper / exports slightly pricier Canadian dollar: -1.6% - neutral UPPER RANGE = NEW BASELINE MINIMUM Previous base retail forecast for 2026/27: Flour: low/base/high = 6 / 10 / 14% Current base - shift toward 12-14%: Flour: 8 / 13 / 17% Bread: 3 / 7 / 11% Pasta: 6 / 12 / 18% Flatbreads/lavash: 5 / 10 / 14% JET LAG (unchanged, only the amplitude grew) - November 2026 first CPI acceleration / February 2027 confirmation / June 2027 the payoff. #Inflation #Groceries #Wheat #Bread #Yen #USD #Euro #Peso #Real

Why bother researching when you can just buy the Index? The thesis is pretty simple: why the hell do research if the money is going to be where the institutions are why waste your time when composite instruments exist? I'll start with positioning - wherever the beneficiaries of the crypto-party are, that's where the more or less "hard" money will sit too. Everyone has probably already seen $COIN50 backed by Coinbase - in my view, this is where the tokens with collateral / audits / track record will live. $COIN50 - an index from Coinbase in partnership with MarketVector Indexes, tracking the 50 largest and most liquid digital assets by market capitalization. Asset Selection Methodology Universe - all assets traded spot on Coinbase Exchange with a USD/USDC/USDT pair and covered by the CCIX price index from CCData. Then comes fundamental filtering on 3 (well, 4) criteria: a) Tokenomics - pegs are banned (stables / wrapped assets) / exchange tokens excluded / the bulk of supply must be in free float. b) Blockchain architecture - public blockchain with all attributes (transparency / immutability / permissionless consensus / peer-to-peer). c) Security - no known vulnerabilities / availability of approved custodians. d) Track record - minimum 360 days since the token's TGE. Selection procedure: top-40 by cap make it in automatically / the remaining 10 slots are filled from positions 41-60 (priority to existing index components); if that's not enough - they fill up to 50 from any next-ranked candidates. Rebalancing is quarterly - February / May / August / November. Between rebalances, the dominants can grow above 50% on market dynamics alone. The last $COIN50 rebalance was February 27, 2026 / the next is May 29, 2026. Current Structure (Extreme Concentration) BTC: 51.22% ETH: 26.71% XRP: 8.17% SOL: 4.63% DOGE: 1.76% Current weights: Top-2 = ~78% Top-5 = ~92.5% THE REMAINING 45 ASSETS SHARE LESS THAN 8% OF THE WEIGHT AMONG THEMSELVES. $COIN50 is effectively a proxy for BTC / ETH with a very thin alt tail. Long-tail ALT components have weights of 0.02–0.04% - dust used to fill the index. Sector Breakdown Smart Contract Platforms (22) / Infrastructure & Application (9) / Decentralized Finance (7) / Memecoins (4) / Payments (4) / Media & Entertainment (3) / Store of Value - $BTC. As an example, take TradFi - SPX - where 7 companies push the whole index while the rest are thin tails that basically don't move it. Same logic here. You're not going to plant your capital in low caps; you'll spread it by risk. $COIN50 is structurally heavily correlated with #BTC and #ETH. If you actually want to slam yourself into real alt-exposure, you probably want equal-weighted indexes. That said, the spread inside $COIN50 is enormous: from −57% to 49% - which tells us that the cap-weighted approach in crypto dilutes alpha inside the tail. Following $COIN50 Logic, You can build your own Indexes Some examples of how to assemble such "indexes": 1) Ex-megacap (BTC/ETH excluded) Logic: the simplest way to isolate alt-beta. Take the same universe, throw out TOP2-5, and weight whatever's left by FDV or by your own "indicators / hype / love for the project." 2) Equal-Weighted indexes Logic: every position gets the same weight (e.g. = 50 assets × 2%) / regardless of market cap, with rebalancing returning weights back to equal. 3) Sectoral indexes Logic: any sectors you want (RWA / DeFi / L1 / Infrastructure & Middleware / AI / DePIN / etc.) - betting on a narrative. 4) Smart-beta / factor indexes logic: a) Momentum - overweight tokens with the best returns over N months (@Bitwise Crypto Momentum) b) Quality - tokens with real revenue / cash flow (Token Terminal–based indexes) c) On-chain activity - weights by real usage metrics You can also use ready-made instruments: 1) @vaneck_us Crypto and Blockchain Innovators ETF ($DAPP) - equity exposure to crypto companies 2) @21shares Crypto Basket Index ETP ($HODLX) 3) @Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund ($GDLC) - top-5 / BTC-heavy 4) @hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETF ($HDX) - Brazil / EU via UCITS wrappers 5) @Bitwise ($BITW) - top-10 / market-cap weighted Moral of the Post Any newbie / amateur / hobbyist can now assemble a portfolio however their soul desires. Either one-click buy the $GDLC index, or endless Twitter-research and DIY attempts to build an "inflation-beating portfolio" (you won't). The only difference is how many hours of your life you're willing to throw at it. *Inspired by TradFi / ETFs / composite indexes. **Don't waste your time picking - it's already been picked for you. All you have to do is put money in, instead of doomscrolling Twitter / Reddit and so on. Special for Mintarion Labs.

How Standard Deviation Killed Your Portfolio on 10/10: The Taleb Lesson Nobody Learned An investigation into why every third trader confuses “volatility” with “ordinary movement,” how one cognitive error spawned the greatest financial catastrophes of our time, and why on October 10, 2025, your risk manager lied to you - without even knowing it. - CHECK IT OUT ON SUBSTACK: mintarion.substack.com/p/how… Thanks @nntaleb. STD ≠ MAD. The market keeps charging tuition for this lesson. 10/10 was just the latest invoice. #BTC #STANDARD #DEVIATION #STD #UBS #GOLDMAN #MAD #SHARPE #ERR #GOLDSTEIN

PLATTS DEEP DIVE: Anatomy of the War Market, May 7-8 / 2026 Why do the Titans do what they do, and how do they make money from it? - CHECK IT OUT ON SUBSTACK: mintarion.substack.com/p/pla… #PLATTS #OIL #HORMUS #BRENT #NYMEX #WTI #TRAFIGURA #GLENCORE #VITOL

OIL FRONT - ANATOMY OF MADNESS ACCORDING TO PLATTS DATA (3 MAY) - Why is this #MADNESS happening? - CHECK IT OUT ON SUBSTACK: mintarion.substack.com/p/oil… #PLATTS #OIL #HORMUS #BRENT #NYMEX #WTI #TRAFIGURA #GLENCORE #VITOL

PlattsWeekly Deep Dive 24.04.2026 - Why is this happening? - CHECK IT OUT ON SUBSTACK: mintarion.substack.com/p/pla… #PLATTS #OIL #HORMUS #BRENT #NYMEX #WTI

AI / INFORMATION SYMMETRY • What is risk? • Risk is a distribution with known probabilities • Uncertainty is that which cannot be described probabilistically. entrepreneurial profit = payment for accepting uncertainty. The entire banking margin historically rests on informational asymmetry: a) The bank knows the borrower's creditworthiness better than the investor - the margin between the funding rate and the placement rate. b) The broker knows the order book structure better than the client - bid-ask spread. c) The underwriter knows the placement discount better than the issuer - IPO underpricing. d) The insurer knows the risk model - premium loading. AI of the 2024-2026 level (Claude 4.7 / GPT-5.5 / DeepSeek-V3/V4/V5 / Chinese Qwen-series) symmetrizes information: A client with access to a frontier model and data analyzes credit risk at the level of a credit committee for $0.2/query. A retail investor gets a 10-K unpacking / synthetic DCF model / stress tests for free - that for which a prime broker charges 20 bps. Smart contracts AI oracles close insurance underwriting in parametric products. Marcos López de Prado in "Advances in Financial Machine Learning" back in 2018 showed that classical quantitative trading methodology (backtests / cross-validation without purging) systematically overestimates results - that is, the profit of rentier funds is largely an artifact of bad statistics. Modern open-source ML stacks reproduce this analysis on the client side. Implication: the margin collapses not because "the Central Bank prohibited it," but because the informational rent physically disappears. I'll attach a few fresh phrases as of the time of writing: *BESSENT EYES AI, SUPPLY CHAIN WORK AFTER LEAVING TREASURY: WSJ *BESSENT SAYS SENIOR MEETING HELD EVERY WEEK ON AI MODELS: WSJ *BESSENT SAYS 'GAME OVER' IF US DOESN'T WIN IN AI OVER CHINA: WSJ Bessent's phrases (the current Donald Trump administration) are literally confirming signals of the escalation of the technological "war" between West and East from which only one winner will emerge. in this case AI is the de-sovereignization of expertise / AI CBDC rails de facto destroy the old rent. the process is asymmetric in time - old institutions defend themselves politically before being displaced economically - this is what we see in the Basel Endgame in the US. notably, a political war was waged around Basel III Endgame / the FED, under pressure, lowers capital calibration in July 2025. In parallel, a consensus has also formed that no parliament votes for the formula RWA / LCR / NSFR / SA-CCR / FRTB — since this is delegated rule-making without delegation. An interesting consensus summary from BASEL III ENDGAME: a) the word RISK is mentioned 170 times b) the phrase OPERATIONAL RISK 16 times c) the word UPSIDE is mentioned 0 times d) the word GROWTH is mentioned 2 times to be continued on mintarion.substack.com/ #AI #BASEL #ENDGAME #AGI #kWh

Divergence Between Financial and Physical Markets (Data as of April 10, 2026 close) April 12, 2026 | Reading time: ~25-30 minutes. For counterparties: ARS Trading Company-AZ LLC / British Petroleum Exploration (Services) Limited / UfaOil LLC / Nord Axis LTD / Bellatrix Energy Limited LTD The energy market continues to operate in a state of pronounced schizophrenia. The temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran announced on April 7 triggered a sharp drop in oil futures (ICE Brent M1 down 0.72 cents to $95.20 per barrel), as financial traders focused on macroeconomic news and technical analysis began unwinding long positions. However, the physical market, which deals in actual barrels and tanker rates, ignored this decline. The reason is that the “paper” truce did not lead to a resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. As Ben Hoff of Societe Generale noted, there is a fundamental difference between the movement of dollars and the movement of barrels. Physical traders and refineries face the need to secure supplies “here and now,” and it is their actions during the Market on Close (MOC) window that reveal the true picture of the deficit, hidden behind the volatility of futures curves. FULL VERSION - mintarion.substack.com/p/div… TELEGRAM - t.me/mintarionlabs #OIL #PLATTS #LOGISTIC #VITOL #TRAFIGURA #PERSIAN_GULF #DIESEL

10/10: Synthetic Death How the market deflated without sellers, and how Tier-1 players got their faces washed in #SBLC. A post-mortem on recursive collateral, disabled oracles, bank letters of credit, collateral haircuts, and the resale of your stops at a discount. Chapter 1. The Calm Before the Recursion Pops October 10th. Open interest (OI) at all-time highs. Everyone’s predicting a sideways chop. Participants are stuffing the order books with partially covered straddles. Euphoria. #Ethena Labs with its synthetic dollar #USDe has reached a market cap of $14.8 billion, promising up to 27% APY - the “internet bond” of a new generation. The key vulnerability everyone chose to ignore: FULL VERSION - mintarion.substack.com/p/101… TELEGRAM - t.me/mintarionlabs #SyntheticDeath #GreySwan #CryptoLiquidation #SBLC #USDe #CrossInventory #ExitLiquidity #REKT

THE GREAT MIGRATION A country with a beautiful view but a dying population and rising taxes is a trap, not a safe haven. Where to move and where to park capital in 2026–2040. mintarion.substack.com/p/the…

BIG BEAUTIFUL ARTICLE drops April 15th - SUBSTACK subscribers only. Don't sleep on it. substack.com/@mintarion