israel-iran tensions:
· trigger $7m crypto bets on polymarket across 20 markets.
major bets:
· $1m on iran retaliation by june 13 midnight (47% chance)
· $661k on iran strike before june end (89% chance)
· $1.48m on us military action before july (25% chance)
· $2m on us-iran nuclear deal before july (<10% chance)
market insight:
· traders use blockchain to speculate on geopolitical crises.
criticism:
· concerns over trivializing human suffering for profit.