There is a widespread misconception, actively promoted by the Kremlin & its proxies, that a ceasefire between Russia & Ukraine will lead to a so-called ‘return to normal’ — a resumption of Eurasian energy trade, a return of Russia to capital markets & an end to Moscow’s political isolation. Nothing could be further from the truth. Even if Russia stops shooting prisoners on the frontlines or bombing Ukrainian civilians in their beds, it will still be illegally occupying 20% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. It will still be holding tens of thiusands of kidnapped children hostage, as it seeks to brainwash & militarize them. It will still be engaged in hostile corruption, influence & sabotage operations against democracies. Its leadership will still be liable to face accountability for the crime of aggression & genocide, as well as many other war crimes & atrocities. Russia has no intention of giving up on this national programme of unmitigated genocidal savagery.
Instead of clinging to impossible dreams, our free societies should continue to re-evaluate what Moscow was doing before 2022, before 2014 & even before 2008, when it invaded Georgia. The Kremlin was never interested in having ‘normal commercial relations’ with anyone. They wanted cash in order to rebuild their economy so they could start invading neighbours again. Even after 1991, post-Soviet Russia never stopped occupying parts of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Moldova & Ukraine. After their many defeats & failures in Chechnya, they knew they needed larger armed forces & more sophisticated active measures fully to subjugate any of these neighbouring countries. By its valour & military prowess, Ukraine has almost shattered this agenda of neo-colonial fascist military expansion. As a result, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Moldova & Syria have moved steadily away from Moscow’s orbit. Mali may do the same. Iran is also weaker. The upshot is clear: Russia now has fewer vassals in Europe, the Middle East & North Africa, although Belarus & Georgia remain under Russian control & occupation, & Russian mercenaries & spies retain influence in Burkina Faso, Burma, CAR, Venezuela & elsewhere.
The fact that so many democratic leaders were deceived with regard to Moscow’s intentions in 1991-93 & again in 2000-02 need not blind people today to the reality of Russian treachery, manipulation & hostile intent. Even if the guns fall silent in Donbas & elsewhere, as still remains most unlikely, Russia will not be a normal country. It will remain a neo-imperialist genocidal occupier with an unbroken history of aggression over centuries against neighbours & states further afield. Even if one theatre of operations becomes less active, democracies will still need to deter & defeat this Kremlin war machine. We will need a workable strategy for victory to liberate occupied areas of Ukraine, as well as Belarus, Georgia & occupied Moldovan Transnistria. Russian coercive control must end in the Caucasus & Central Asia, as well in remaining parts of Asia, Africa, Latin America & the Caribbean, where it lingers. The new normal should be a world free of Russian aggression, invasion, occupation & repression. That remains a goal well worth fighting for.