Macro: Fed on hold, data resilient
- The Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at its meeting this week, with communication likely to stress uncertainty rather than a clear pivot toward cuts.
- Inflation is still running well above the Fed’s target (headline near the mid‑3s), which makes near‑term cuts hard to justify despite markets starting to price in some easing later in 2026.
- U.S. data remain resilient: March retail sales surprised to the upside, helped by higher gas prices but also solid ex‑gas demand, and PMIs point to modest expansion with some pickup in price pressures.