In attacking Israel directly from within its own territory last night, Iran changed the rules of the game. An effective counterstrike from Israel would need to be a successful in ways the Iranian assault was not... but that would invariably cause an escalation that could easily spiral out of control. Conversely, a promise not to respond carries the risk of a greatly emboldened Iran thinking it can now strike Israel directly with impunity.
This is a true dilemma, but ultimately no decision needs to be taken immediately because the Iranian attack was a failure and will be remembered primarily for being the greatest demonstration of coordinated air defense in the history of warfare.
At this point, Israel needs to say that it will deliver an appropriate response at a time and place of its choosing. We donโt forgo the right to respond, while retaining the element of surprise.
Itโs tempting to demand an immediate Israeli response, but Israelโs current predicament vis a vis Iran cannot be seen in isolation of other geopolitical events and trends swirling around us (just as the attack on the IRGC general was not an isolated event but related to the war against Hamas and Hebollah).
Through poor leadership and weak personal relationships, Israel has unwittingly isolated itself over the last few months. The perception of abandonment is the most severe blow to strategic deterrance of the past six months, with talk of arms emargos, conditioning military aid, UN condemnations and frustration between the US and Israel laid bare. If an Israeli counter attack deepens that isolation, Israel wonโt achieve much at all.
It will cost Israel a little in terms of deterrence but it is counterbalanced by other actions Israel has already taken including the complete destruction of Gaza and the surprise elimination of an Iranian general. Iran did the unthinkable in attacking Israel direcly, but ultimately failed. Israel did the unthinkable in attacking an Iranian general, and succeeded. Itโs the Iranians who are now paranoid and unsettled.
Israel suddenly has an opportunity to strengthen its historical alliances and expand it into the Arab world to include Saudi Arabia. This is far more threatening to Iran than a few Jericho missiles hitting their targets to prove something everyone already knows.
Israel must now leverage the political capital it gains from exercising temporary restraint to continue its battle to destroy Hamas. This would be the ultimate victory over Iran, and better position Israel to eventually confront Iran directly as part of a broader alliance.