🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING SpaceX will go public tomorrow at a $1.75T valuation. The biggest IPO in market history. And Wall Street just changed the rules right before it happens. I've been trading for more than 15 years and have never seen them rewrite the rules so urgently: IPO access now lowered from $500,000 to $2,000 (-99.6% cut). That means millions of investors can suddenly enter a deal and buy shares tomorrow. One day before the most expensive IPO in history. And suddenly... SpaceX reserved up to 30% of the deal for regular investors. Three times the normal share. Why? Because retail investors need to buy what insiders sell. And here is the part most people are missing: SpaceX does not just create demand for SpaceX. It pulls liquidity out of everything else: - Retail sells stocks to chase the IPO. - Funds sell stocks to prepare for forced buying. - Brokers open access to generate demand. - Everyone needs cash at the same time. That is why the market is selling now. First, insiders create the hype. Then brokers open the gates. Then regular investors rush in. And by the time the crowd realizes what happened, the exit door is already closed. We’ve seen this before. 2000: Dotcom IPOs became the symbol of the bubble. Then Nasdaq collapsed 80%. 2021: SPACs, Coinbase, Robinhood, Rivian. Retail thought they were buying the future. They were buying the exit. Now the same playbook is back. Only this time, it is much bigger. When Wall Street cuts the entry ticket from $500K to $2K right before a $1.75T IPO, they are not giving retail a gift. They are creating buyers. Remember: Insiders need liquidity. Funds need allocation. The market needs a dream. And Wall Street needs someone to hold the bag. That is what tomorrow is really about. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Top crypto companies send joint letter urging Congress to include legal protections for developers in crypto Clarity Act. • a16z • Aave • 1inch • Block • BitGo • Aptos • Zcash • Solana • Galaxy • Ledger • Kraken • Uniswap • Coinbase • Hyperliquid • Many others

Near-term BTC price action is going to be heavily dependent on one thing: Did Saylor sell enough BTC this past week? If he sold zero, that’d be a massive mistake on his end and we’re probably cooked. If he sold $1B of BTC, that helps, but realistically I don’t think it’s enough and we probably continue lower. If he sold at least $2B, that’s where it gets interesting and sets up a bounce. The more he sold, the harder we bounce. My base case is that he sold at least $2B. I also think there’s a decent chance BTC bottoms into Monday if the market starts pricing in that he sold some. Rationale: Selling none is my lowest probability scenario. He needs the money. He already did that weird 32 BTC “test” sale and I have a hard time understanding the purpose of it. If he was planning on selling more, all the test did was give him worse execution. If he wasn't planning on selling more, then he nuked the market for no reason. The latter seems completely ridiculous, so my guess is it was indeed a test and he was planning on selling more. A tiny sale ($500m) is the worst of both worlds. It damages the “never sell” narrative without solving the liquidity problem. If you’re going to sell, sell enough to matter. That’s the key here. A material sale does two things at once. It adds real cash runway, but it also sends an important signal to STRC buyers: he is willing to sell meaningful amounts of BTC to keep funding the dividend. That signal matters a lot. Strategy has roughly $871M left in its USD reserve. Against the current preferred debt cash burden, that’s only about 6 months of runway. If he sold $1B, that takes runway from ~6 months to ~13 months. Helpful, but probably not enough. 13 months is enough to reduce near-term stress, but not enough to make STRC feel like a self-sustaining issuance product again. STRC buyers are still underwriting a shrinking cash cushion and hoping the market rallies materially within that window. I think it becomes very hard for STRC to get back to 100 in that scenario. If he sold $2B, that takes the reserve to ~$2.9B and extends runway to roughly 20 months. That is a very different setup. At ~20 months of coverage, blow-up risk gets pushed much further out, STRC buyers can believe the dividend is properly covered by cash on hand, and the product has a real chance of trading back to 100. It also changes how STRC buyers think about the balance sheet. They’re not just relying on new issuance to get paid. They’re backed by a massive BTC treasury that Saylor has now shown he is willing to selectively monetize to support the credit stack. Once STRC is back at 100, the flywheel can restart. This is the “sell to buy” point. A large BTC sale does not just create cash runway. It can increase his ability to issue STRC, which then gives him the ability to buy more BTC than he sold. So the hierarchy is simple: Selling zero is the disaster scenario. Selling too little helps, but probably does not fix the flywheel. Selling enough to matter is what gives STRC a path back to 100 and gives BTC a reason to bounce.

🇺🇸 CFTC Approves First US-Regulated Bitcoin Perpetual Futures 👉 The agency approved @Kalshi 's BTCPERP contract, the first bitcoin perpetual on a registered U.S. exchange. 👉 In a separate action, it cleared @coinbase to route customers to its offshore Deribit affiliate. 🧠 Together, the moves open an onshore path for a product long pushed abroad and raise the competitive stakes for dominant venues such as @HyperliquidX. Read more here: thedefiant.io/news/regulatio…

BREAKING: Odds of a recession this year plummet to 16% — an all-time low.