West Asia stands at a pivotal historical juncture. There is a shuffling of the cards and the establishment of new rules of engagement. Any miscalculation can trigger a wider transformation dictated not by the rationale of de-escalation but by the escalation for de-escalation.
US military buildup during the ceasefire, enforcement of counter-blockade, financial onslaught on non-traditional financial channels and on-off strikes on IRGC targets has complicated IRGC strategic calculus.
IRGC calculus has changed entirely over the last two weeks; back-door channel communication with Gulf states, particularly the UAE and Qatar, has added a new dimension to the ongoing confrontation.
The targeting of Bahrain and Kuwait, rather than the UAE, differs from the pattern observed just a few weeks ago. IRGC has adopted a more assertive posture vis-à-vis strikes and low-intensity engagement.
Defining Beirut as a red line has squeezed the space for any manoeuvring. Both parties have taken public positions. Now both have to operate under new rules of engagement. This has left the table with two cards: vertical escalation or de-escalation.