Looking deep into $SIF (SIFCO Industries). It looks incredibly enticing optically with a highly relevant thematic tailwind and a great setup! Well positioned for the aerospace and defense recovery, driven by surging Boeing 737 MAX/787 production and record, stable F-35 contracts from Lockheed. The chart looks great with a low Float and Peter Abrahmson acquiring 6.4% of the float. The backlog is expanding rapidly and jumped $20 million from $119.2M at the end of Q4 2025 to $139.5M by Q1 2026. Important to note that the earnings quality is high but is currently being masked by LIFO accounting; if FIFO had been used, inventory values would have been $11.1 million higher in Q1 2026, meaning the company's true earnings power is significantly depressed on paper. Valuation appears cheap too with Enterprise Value below $100M. Given its recent return to profitability and a Q1 sales run-rate pacing near $96M annualized. Could do really well here as throughput and margins continue to inflect!

The setup for $DUOT looks good from a risk/reward prespective as several massive catalysts start to converge. The biggest immediate one is the recent FTC filing confirming Elon Musk is acquiring the parent company of APR Energy. Since DUOS holds a 5% equity stake in that entity, this buyout could act as a massive value unlock driver. Beyond the APR stake, the operational side is rapidly derisking as well. They have a $176 million contract locked in with Founders Fund-backed Hydra Host, and the $15 million prepayment is already sitting on the balance sheet. The management noted that this relationship is increasingly getting stronger. When you pair that with the news this morning that Armada just raised capital at a $2 billion valuation, the space is starting to get some eyeballs. The stock is still highly speculative but has a compelling multi-thematic exposure across GPUaaS and Edge AI with the incredibly strategic asset of secured power in Tier 3 and 4 markets. The CEO's track record is strong and he also noted having open conversations with hyperscalers for a potential strategic investment, the stock could catch a bid.

The setup for $DUOT looks good from a risk/reward prespective as several massive catalysts start to converge. The biggest immediate one is the recent FTC filing confirming Elon Musk is acquiring the parent company of APR Energy. Since DUOS holds a 5% equity stake in that entity, this buyout could act as a massive value unlock driver. Beyond the APR stake, the operational side is rapidly derisking as well. They have a $176 million contract locked in with Founders Fund-backed Hydra Host, and the $15 million prepayment is already sitting on the balance sheet. The management noted that this relationship is increasingly getting stronger. When you pair that with the news this morning that Armada just raised capital at a $2 billion valuation, the space is starting to get some eyeballs. The stock is still highly speculative but has a compelling multi-thematic exposure across GPUaaS and Edge AI with the incredibly strategic asset of secured power in Tier 3 and 4 markets. The CEO's track record is strong and he also noted having open conversations with hyperscalers for a potential strategic investment, the stock could catch a bid.

$ZVIA Investment Thesis: Asymmetric Upside Potential Amid Emerging Trends After recent analysis, I’ve shifted my stance on Zevia, due to the October Amazon data showing a significant surge in e-commerce sales. While the upcoming Q3 results may still underperform based on September data, I believe the guidance could surprise positively, creating an asymmetric risk-reward scenario. Analysis based on Amazon sales data estimates their Amazon sales for the past month around $2.5M, which annualizes to roughly $30M. Their e-commerce sales are generally around $3M/quarter. With e-commerce making up close to 9% of Zevia’s total sales, this implies total quarterly sales could approximate $75M, and on an annualized basis, reach $300M (currently @ $160M). Given this growth trajectory, an emerging company in the Stevia beverage category should conservatively trade at 2x revenue, putting the potential market cap around $600M—representing an 8x upside from current levels. There are a lot of assumptions in the calculation which are not perfect but the margin of safety looks good due to the potential upside. Management has also mentioned a $12M cost-cutting initiative and hinted at a major distribution partnership announcement. Sentiment on TikTok is starting to build, with the Stevia-based product gaining popularity among health-conscious consumers, positioning Zevia to grow alongside competitors like Olipop and Poppi. This is a speculative play due to liquidity concerns and a potentially weak quarter coming up, but I am initiating a 2% position based on the substantial upside. The stock has regained compliance, and any good news could lead to outsized rewards. Keeping an eye on Dr. Zevia (healthy version of the #2 soda - Dr. Pepper, Caramel Soda and Root beer flavours which have been driving the sales.

The setup for $DUOT looks good from a risk/reward prespective as several massive catalysts start to converge. The biggest immediate one is the recent FTC filing confirming Elon Musk is acquiring the parent company of APR Energy. Since DUOS holds a 5% equity stake in that entity, this buyout could act as a massive value unlock driver. Beyond the APR stake, the operational side is rapidly derisking as well. They have a $176 million contract locked in with Founders Fund-backed Hydra Host, and the $15 million prepayment is already sitting on the balance sheet. The management noted that this relationship is increasingly getting stronger. When you pair that with the news this morning that Armada just raised capital at a $2 billion valuation, the space is starting to get some eyeballs. The stock is still highly speculative but has a compelling multi-thematic exposure across GPUaaS and Edge AI with the incredibly strategic asset of secured power in Tier 3 and 4 markets. The CEO's track record is strong and he also noted having open conversations with hyperscalers for a potential strategic investment, the stock could catch a bid.

$PENG Needham out today raising PT from $27 to $60 Saying $NVDA has been recommending $PENG and citing the massive tailwind agentic AI will be for the 🐧

Thanks for sharing this, Jeff! I'm am getting interested in $DUOT too. The setup is starting to look a lot cleaner with the legacy rail business moving out of the picture. The APR stake could hold some solid hidden value and the Hydra Host partnership seems to be gaining momentum as well, there are a lot of interesting pieces coming together. That comment about a potential hyperscaler strategic investor was also very interesting. Appreciate the notes!

With Motorsport Games $MSGM scheduled to report their Q1 earnings on Wednesday, May 13th, I wanted to walk through my updated earnings model and share my expectations for the quarter. Overall, the underlying metrics are pointing in a highly positive direction, but I am keeping my official estimates slightly conservative to account for the timing of the ELMS Pack 3 release which happened on the last day of the quarter. Here is a breakdown of how I am modeling Q1 and the catalysts I'm watching closely. Based on recent traffic and sales data, I am projecting Q1 total revenue to land between $4.2M and $4.6M, with $4.25M being the most probable scenario. Here is the breakdown of the underlying data driving this model: 1. Game Sales: Up 15% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). 2. Average Player Count: Up an impressive 34% QoQ. 3. RaceControl Revenue: Projected at $900K for the quarter, though the model indicates we could see an upside surprise of up to $1.05M. 4. RaceControl Traffic: Up 14% QoQ. 5. The DLC Dynamic: ELMS Pack 3 was launched (last one of the European Series) which will see deferred revenue recognition hitting the books for the players who previously purchased the season pass. Also, the massive influx of new players entering the ecosystem during Q1 creates a compounding effect whereby the new cohort now has a larger catalog of DLCs to purchase to catch up to the Q4 players. Management has already noted that the DLC attach rate is very strong, meaning this larger player base directly translates to a higher revenue per new user. Why These Numbers Are Conservative You might look at the 34% jump in average players and wonder why the revenue base case is sitting at $4.25M. The main reason is that unlike previous quarters where the DLCs were released a few days before the end of the quarter, ELMS Pack 3 dropped on the final day of Q1, there is a very high probability that a significant chunk of the direct revenue from the DLC purchase itself took a few days to fully realize, meaning it will spill over into the April (Q2). My internal assessment was for the revenue to be around $4.5M for the quarter as the engagement numbers were very strong for Q1 with the game hitting the #29 spot on the Steam Top Sellers list.

Took some profits here. Again, my position is entirely in options, and if the recapitalization happens, the NAV will reduce. I will hold the remaining 10% position and sell right before earnings. If my calculation is accurate, the NAV should increase around $1.40–$1.80 driven by Schylling. If the recap happens, the NAV gets reduced. The ideal scenario would be for the stock to sell off on earnings and then rebuy if the recap actually happens but a sale doesn’t. If $GAIN announces a potential sale of Schylling, the stock could continue to go higher (scenario we covered in the deep dive), but I will be more than comfortable missing out if that actually happens.

Hey guys, sorry I'm late, it was a crazy busy day at work. I see you guys already shared some great insights on the $PENG Needham call! For me, the biggest takeaways were the following: 1. If you look at the mid-point of the 12% guide and the segment guides from the Q2 call, my calculations imply an AI factory segment revenue of $1.02B for FY'27. However, with Kash explicitly saying this is well over a $1 billion business, it makes me think they are being conservative and should easily beat that 12% guide for the year. 2. With the guidance basically achieved, there is a very good chance their backlog for next year is incredibly strong. They mentioned it takes 3-6 months to convert backlog into revenue, so that pipeline is locked in. Also, "Nobody else in the market has a product like MemoryAI, which is helping our customers and helping us win deals." That CXL product is a massive differentiator right now and their partnership with $MRVL makes this a great opportunity (they also have partnership with $DELL, $AMD, $NVDA as we know). 3. SK Hynix being a strategic investor is incredibly bullish and honestly something I didn't fully realize until they mentioned it. This completely de-risks the supply issue. Procuring demand is a massive constraint for everyone else, but them saying we've been able to access it and serve as much demand as we can and that the relationship helps with margins is quite massive. Maybe too much of a stretch but long-term, this could possibly lead to SK Hynix promoting PENG's products against competitors. It also gives PENG immense leverage with rack builders and larger enterprises because clients know PENG actually has the supply to deliver. That alone demands a huge premium and is a massive moat in my opinion.

I initiated a small position in $LEAT (Leatt Inc.), as the setup we are seeing right now is incredibly compelling. Between a pristine balance sheet and shifting industry tides, the risk/reward ratio is highly asymmetrical. Didn't know @OlivierColombo is an analyst on the stock. Last time we were on a stock together - $LSF, it ended up being a multi-bagger. The company is currently sitting on ~ $13M in cash with almost no debt implying an EV to EBIT of around 11 times with gross margins last year expanding by 3.74% and net margins turning positive with opex remaining flat on revenue growth of almost 40% exhiting tremendous operating leverage. The End of the Destocking Headwinds: The protective gear market has been battered by severe destocking over the last year, but the worst appears to be behind us. Looking at recent commentary from Mips (MIPS.ST), the massive inventory headwinds might be clearing. Alternative data is further suggesting that the artificially low stocking levels across distributors could be depleted much faster than the market anticipates. This rapid drawdown could lead to additional orders in the upcoming quarter (a lot of the sales by these companies are obviously made before the seasonal demand kicks in). Geographic Tailwinds: Europe has been a powerhouse of the industry, and Leatt has maintained remarkable strength there regardless of market conditions. However, the narrative in North America could lead to further upside as North America has trailed Europe for some time now. Mips said "north american market continues to develop well and Asian market has stabilised." Thule also indicated that the North American market is flattening. This flattening is extremely bullish indicator for Leatt. If the trends are finally heading in the right direction and the North American market begins to accelerate, it adds an entirely new layer of growth on top and with operating leverage kicking in, the stock can really catch a bid. The Moto Catalyst Moto was Mips' largest growth driver recently, posting a massive 33% growth. Management explicitly stated that "motocross remains the key driver, but also on-road category is starting to accelerate." While Mips and Leatt are competitors, this could be a leading indicator for the sector. If Leatt was able to command market share and hold their own during a period of severe material headwinds and aggressive industry-wide destocking, they are in a prime position to capitalize if the market accelerates materially. The aggregate YoY comparative traffic for the major Motorsport websites in North America is finally trending the right direction with US Amazon search trends and google trends all supporting a market on the verge of a major inflection point.

$MSGM is and should continue to benefit from this trend as the official partner of WEC, with the e-gaming events set to return this year after the 2023 event. The e-gaming segment should contribute incremental revenues to the PnL at ~50% gross margins and is expected to be bigger this time due to greater traction for both the game and the event. Additionally, GT3 continues to gain hype with Max Verstappen now driving in these events.