Paul | Bitcoin, Crypto & Equities | Macro | Charts & On-Chain | NFA | ๐จ๐ฆ
Joined November 2025
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GM and Happy Sunday!
Hope everyoneโs weekend is going well!
Yesterday had some down time from X.
Definitely needed it.
bitcoin:native continues with the slow grind.
Mondays come too fast. ๐ซถ
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SpaceX $SPCX just pulled off the largest IPO in history. Most of the cash was spoken for before it arrived.
It priced at $1.77 trillion and raised $75 billion. Around $62 billion is committed before it can be spent:
-Repaying debt to early backer Valor Equity
- Retiring xAI and X Corp loans, including a $20 billion bridge due within six months
- Paying EchoStar $17 billion for spectrum
That leaves about $13 billion in genuinely new money, on a balance sheet that already burned through $9 billion of cash in Q1 alone.
The burn is mostly capex it could throttle, but at this pace the IPO buys about a year before it has to choose to raise again, or slow the build.
Underneath sit two halves.
Starlink is a genuinely great business, $11.4 billion in revenue last year at a 63% EBITDA margin.
xAI is the opposite, the one draining the cash, losing $6.4 billion as it builds data centers.
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The bull answer is that xAI grows into the price. So look at the revenue meant to get it there.
At $1.77 trillion, SpaceX trades near 95 times last year's revenue. Once the new compute deals are fully running, closer to 40. That lower number is the one bulls lean on.
But that forward revenue is almost entirely compute rent.
xAI stopped using its Colossus 1 supercomputer for its own training and now leases it to Anthropic and Google, on contracts either side can cancel with 90 days notice after this year.
So the multiple that makes the price look reasonable rests on the most cancellable revenue in the company, paid by two of its competitors.
That much is knowable today.
The open question is whether that compute demand stays sticky for years, the way it looks now, or fades when the AI build cycle turns.
That is what the AI case rests on, and no one can answer it yet.
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Put it together and the heaviest risks here are structural, and visible right now.
The IPO is largely a refinancing, so the company will likely be back to raise again.
The revenue underpinning the valuation is rent the company doesn't fully control.
And the cash funding everything is draining fast, just as the plan leans on capital staying cheap.
They can slow the spending to protect the cash, but only by starving the growth the whole price is paying for.
The upside is real, and unknowable. Whether Starship delivers, whether the compute demand holds, whether the vision pays off.
The structure is what you can actually see today, and it is where the risk sits.
The part worth owning, Starlink, doesn't trade on its own. At $1.77 trillion you're buying everything around it too, at a price that already assumes those bets land at once.
The market thinks they will, and it might be right.
I'm being patient with SpaceX. Anyone can buy a share to say they own it. What gets you in with real size, and at what price?
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GM and Happy Friday!
SpaceX $SPCX IPO day! Iโm watching with my ๐ฟ
Anyone buying/trading it?
Also FIFA World Cup continues.
Nervous about ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ
Lock in. Grind time ladies and germs.
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PPI ran 1.1% in May, 6.5% on the year, the hottest since 2022. On the surface it looks like producer inflation is taking off.
But like the CPI headline, most of it is just energy, gasoline above all.
Strip out food, energy and margins and producer prices still rose 0.8%, the most since 2022.
The real part is goods, plastic resins and industrial chemicals made from oil and gas. That's the shock moving into the next layer of production.
The services side looks hot too, but that's a big part of that is portfolio management fees riding the market and not costs, so I set that aside.
Whether any of this reaches consumers is the harder question. Trade margins fell, so sellers are absorbing part of the cost instead of passing it all on.
That means it gets through partially and with a lag. And there's another risk, if the Strait reopens and energy backs off, the whole spike could reverse before it ever reaches households.
So it climbs if the shock holds and fades if it doesn't, with margins deciding how much actually lands either way.
Does this print make you more worried about inflation, or less?
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Lots of moving parts in this one. Ask away and Iโll go deeper in the replies.
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GM and Happy Thursday!
FIFA World Cup begins! ๐ฟโฝ๏ธ๐ฅ
We have US PPI data today and I will have a post.
But first to the gym for a push workout. ๐ช
Keep grinding. Keep posting. LFG!
And is $NVDA going under $200? ๐ BTFD
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The headlines can't agree on today's CPI. One half is leading with inflation at its highest since April 2023, the other says core came in soft and inflation is cooling, and it's all from the same report.
I don't think it's cooling.
Core came in at 0.2%, under the 0.3% expected, but the soft print was mostly shelter, which spiked to 0.6% in April and settled back to 0.3% in May, with goods and a few services lines slipping on top.
That's one category coming off a one-month jump, not pressure easing, and the energy shock still hasn't shown up in the rest of the basket.
The shock is where the story is, and it isn't fading.
Energy drove more than 60% of the 0.5% monthly rise. Gasoline rose 21.2% in March, 5.4% in April, then back up to 7% in May, so it re-accelerated instead of rolling off, and energy is now more than 23% higher on the year.
That lifted the annual rate to 4.2%, but that record is a headline number, driven by energy.
Core is at 2.9%, and while it's edged up in recent months, it's running far below the headline and nowhere near the 2022 peak.
Put it together and it's neither cooling nor surging, just a shock still sitting in energy that hasn't broken into core.
The test from here is simple. As long as energy keeps running 3 to 4% a month, a soft core is "not yet," not the all-clear. If energy rolls over and core stays soft, I'll have it wrong.
How are you reading this?
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GM and Happy Wednesday!
We have US CPI this AM and I will have a post breaking it down.
World Cup starts tomorrow! ๐ฟโฝ๏ธ๐
But time for a leg workout and my usual Costco adventure later on ๐
๐ on $MRVL
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The CLARITY Act is being treated as crypto's big win. Trillions in sidelined cash, XRP unlocked, Wall Street finally pulled in.
But the win and the prize aren't the same thing.
What crypto gets is legitimacy, the clean legal categories and rulebook that end the SEC guessing game. That clarity is what the big institutions were holding out for.
What they build with it is the bigger prize.
Tokenization, moving real assets like stocks, bonds and cash onto a blockchain, is the idea crypto spent a decade selling as the way to get around Wall Street.
And the firms building it are Wall Street.
DTCC's tokenization service pilots in July and launches in October. BlackRock runs the largest tokenized fund. JPMorgan tokenizes deposits and bonds through Kinexys. Franklin Templeton already has a tokenized money fund open to retail.
That's what the victory lap misses. Crypto won the argument and handed over the infrastructure.
The same institutions it set out to replace are now the ones running its best idea, with the legal cover this bill would give them.
CLARITY looks like the moment crypto beat Wall Street. It might be the moment Wall Street absorbed it.
How are you reading this one?
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GM everyone!
Time to rise, grind and get ready to shine! โ๏ธ
No workout today, decided on more rest ๐
Going to be a heavy โ๏ธ kind of day
LFG!
Donโt fade $MU
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The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double what was expected.
If you have a job, you're fine. If you lost one, getting back in is the hardest it's been in years, and the headline is built so you can't tell.
Labor force growth has slowed sharply, so the bar for a "good" jobs number has fallen.
It took roughly 250,000 jobs a month in 2023 just to keep unemployment from rising. Today it's a fraction of that.
The rate stays calm at 4.3%, but that calm is mechanical. Few are losing jobs, so the pool isn't growing. Few are landing new ones, so those already in it can't get out.
The headline misses this. The share out of work six months or longer has risen to 27.5% of all unemployed, up from 20% a year ago.
A market that was only cooling off would still be pulling them back in at a normal pace. This one isn't.
Payrolls were revised up 93,000 over the prior two months and openings jumped in April.
All of it goes to people who already have jobs or companies still posting roles. None of it reaches the people who've been out the longest.
That's the labor market Kevin Warsh inherits. Calm on top, quietly stuck underneath.
If you or someone you know has been trying to get back in this year, does this match what you're seeing?
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GM everyone!
Exciting week ahead of battling war headlines, CPI & PPI, and the start of the World Cup.
Iโm ready to full send like a degen. Are you?
LFG and have a great week.
bitcoin:native ๐
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GM and Happy Sunday
Anyone else excited for the World Cup to start this Thursday?
LFG ๐จ๐ฆ I think we have a decent chance to make it out of the group.
Who are you supporting?
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I mean in general who is everyone supporting!!!
Hadnโt had my coffee yet sorry eh.
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