bubble chaser

Joined September 2017
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NEETs in disbelief. Working towards something is cool and worthwhile
Elon just created 4,400 millionaires in a single day. 400 of them are now worth over $100 million. These aren't VCs. They're SpaceX employees, and the list includes welders, technicians, and cafeteria staff, because for two decades the company paid every level of the workforce in stock instead of higher salaries. Juan Hernandez immigrated from Mexico and took a $28 an hour contractor welding job in 2015. He says he didn't even know what SpaceX was. The company gave him a $10,000 equity grant and let him buy more shares through payroll deductions. That stake is now worth $880,000. Trevor Hise's parents wanted him to take a stable job at General Electric. He picked SpaceX instead, stayed 12 years, and accumulated over 100,000 shares. At the $135 listing price that's $13.5 million. He's 37 and semiretired. His words: "The magnitude of this has been ridiculous." The most telling detail came before the listing. Over 100 employees quietly banded together and negotiated a group wealth management deal covering up to $5 billion, because none of them had ever needed a wealth manager before. Software IPOs have minted millionaires for 30 years. This is the first one where the money went to the factory floor.
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If you’re in crypto, pivot to cafeteria work at the next $1 trillion IPO
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Harts gonna need secret service to escort him home if the Knicks lose this one
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the best telegram channel out there. not accepting any debates
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need amc perps like i need air
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BREAKING: Iran is preparing its most powerful strike against the ZEC headquarters in Israel
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need amc perps like i need air
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This is one of those weeks that you look back on in 30 years and think about how good you had it Wc hosted in the states, ufc White House, nba finals and Stanley cup. Generational lineup
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Saylor has a massive edge rn and would expect him to milk it for as long as possible The longer the market is scared of his supply overhang, the longer he can accumulate at low prices. He has no incentive to address issues head on and will likely continue trolling everyone into full Saylor derangement syndrome Beachball underwater and he’s the one holding the ball down
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Avg ct participant thinks Saylor is a one man army and presses the buy button for strategy Surely a company worth 40b and that employs close to 2k people has at least a few smart individuals that modeled even the worst bear market scenarios and factored that into their decision making
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some charts presented without comment out of all the big weeks, this one might be the biggest
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washed retweeted
Near-term BTC price action is going to be heavily dependent on one thing: Did Saylor sell enough BTC this past week? If he sold zero, that’d be a massive mistake on his end and we’re probably cooked. If he sold $1B of BTC, that helps, but realistically I don’t think it’s enough and we probably continue lower. If he sold at least $2B, that’s where it gets interesting and sets up a bounce. The more he sold, the harder we bounce. My base case is that he sold at least $2B. I also think there’s a decent chance BTC bottoms into Monday if the market starts pricing in that he sold some. Rationale: Selling none is my lowest probability scenario. He needs the money. He already did that weird 32 BTC “test” sale and I have a hard time understanding the purpose of it. If he was planning on selling more, all the test did was give him worse execution. If he wasn't planning on selling more, then he nuked the market for no reason. The latter seems completely ridiculous, so my guess is it was indeed a test and he was planning on selling more. A tiny sale ($500m) is the worst of both worlds. It damages the “never sell” narrative without solving the liquidity problem. If you’re going to sell, sell enough to matter. That’s the key here. A material sale does two things at once. It adds real cash runway, but it also sends an important signal to STRC buyers: he is willing to sell meaningful amounts of BTC to keep funding the dividend. That signal matters a lot. Strategy has roughly $871M left in its USD reserve. Against the current preferred debt cash burden, that’s only about 6 months of runway. If he sold $1B, that takes runway from ~6 months to ~13 months. Helpful, but probably not enough. 13 months is enough to reduce near-term stress, but not enough to make STRC feel like a self-sustaining issuance product again. STRC buyers are still underwriting a shrinking cash cushion and hoping the market rallies materially within that window. I think it becomes very hard for STRC to get back to 100 in that scenario. If he sold $2B, that takes the reserve to ~$2.9B and extends runway to roughly 20 months. That is a very different setup. At ~20 months of coverage, blow-up risk gets pushed much further out, STRC buyers can believe the dividend is properly covered by cash on hand, and the product has a real chance of trading back to 100. It also changes how STRC buyers think about the balance sheet. They’re not just relying on new issuance to get paid. They’re backed by a massive BTC treasury that Saylor has now shown he is willing to selectively monetize to support the credit stack. Once STRC is back at 100, the flywheel can restart. This is the “sell to buy” point. A large BTC sale does not just create cash runway. It can increase his ability to issue STRC, which then gives him the ability to buy more BTC than he sold. So the hierarchy is simple: Selling zero is the disaster scenario. Selling too little helps, but probably does not fix the flywheel. Selling enough to matter is what gives STRC a path back to 100 and gives BTC a reason to bounce.
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Yea Hunter is goated, need to buy a Biden at some point
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On days like today, you really start to wonder what brings in the next class of crypto participants The only logical answers I can come up with are Tradfi or AI narratives. Privacy is interesting to crypto-natives as it keeps the cypherpunk dream alive, but the average Joe doesn’t care enough about it to speculate, imo. Fwiw, I remain a privacy bull One thing I’ve noticed among my IRLs is that there was zero interest in memes or vaporware. Everyone knew I was into crypto, but it never came up. Then one day, last winter, a buddy randomly asked me what I thought about Keeta and Tibbir. It caught me off guard because he’s not an online or tech guy at all. He seemed pretty excited about them, and I think he still holds them (against my advice, but what do I know) Retail wants to feel smart when they buy something. They want exposure to the next AI unicorn or something that will disrupt tradfi, something they can dream on. They want to feel like investors; they aren't going to be buying obvious grifts Retail will continue to have limited access to cheap AI opportunities. Crypto has shown some good alignment with the AI narrative thus far, so when sentiment improves, and new things come out would expect this to be the main theme to bring people in. Maybe VVV keeps trudging along and becomes a Pepe-esque leader
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zec holders are looking to this guy to save them
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computa, max short all defi protocols
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I’ve accidentally held some ETH for about 1 week and I want to kms How have ppl done this for 5 years?
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Lotta ppl trading like 10/10 never happened. I’m sure this ends well and people top blasting garbage alts win forever
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Is there a producthunt type thing for crypto protocols?
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good read on ore there's actually some good things being built on solana but they get overlooked because pumpfun has sort of plagued the entire chain. think there's assymetry in finding sol projects with proper incentive alignment between devs and holders - pretty much the opposite of pumpfun coins
1/ Excited to finally publish Cash Flow King, a deep-dive initiation report on solana:oreoU2P8bN6jkk3jbaiVxYnG1dCXcYxwhwyK9jSybcp Protocol. The ORE ecosystem has no shortage of dashboards and data. What's missing is a single resource that provides context, and connects the dots. So I wrote one. oreprotocol-research.com
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