We have a very active stretch of severe weather setting up this week across the Northern sections of the country. The difference this week compared to last is that our belt of favorable flow will position itself further East. This will drive better severe risk into the Midwest & surrounding areas.
Beyond this, I think as we enter the mid month timeframe, things get more active further to the South & East. I am not talking some sort of March or April type severe pattern, but I could see higher severe weather chances shifting further South compared to what we see this time of the year. Maybe areas like the Southern to Central plains, Mid Mississippi valley, Mid South, Ohio Valley into areas of the Mid Atlantic & Northeast. (which is totally unusual for this area in Mid June) We could have severe risk further South than that also.
You can see how a trough digs mid month pushing down better kinematic flow with it (Better winds aloft for severe weather). This will overlap a seasonal moist airmass to the South. This will push a cooldown into the middle of the country also. A ridge will spike ahead of this trough dig in the East driving a bit warm up in the coming days. Phase 8 is likely the driver to this.
Chatter in the tropics remain, but honestly there is a lot more to talk about across the lower 48. The signal decreased overnight for tropical activity.