Retired finance professional. I can't see the future and neither can you; anyone who says different has something to sell. NOTHING I SAY IS INVESTMENT ADVICE.
Joined April 2013
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The Midterms are finally only 143 days away!
Time to angrily lose money making emotional trades based on your party affiliation.
Here's how SPX has done
▪ Every month
▪ Leading up to the Midterm Elections
▪ Since 2000
Some real doozies in here.
What the fuck, September?
The midterms are approaching. What they could mean for the stock market — and the AI trade cnbc.com/2026/06/05/the-midt…
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Oooh.
Some cool work from @DoubleWideCap
The stupid stat of the week ahead. Sorry @oddstats, I'll try to make it up with some BBQ porn this weekend. "Since 1990, how many weeks have an open and close above 75% of the weekly range?" Well, there are 16 of those weeks on SPX including this week. 60% of the previous times the next week closed higher with an average (if up) of 1.3% up. 40% of the previous times the next week closed lower with an average (if down) of -1.8%. Futher to refine to match my personal bias (haha!!!!) on the times it was down only one time was the market showing balance. All other times the market was already "reaching" or was in the GFC. So, volatility/expected range/historical context all show this next week better fucking close up. haha. But, A @OddStats would say, "How the fuck would fuck would I know?" Historical stats are great but each week is an independent observation. You build the model, play the probabilities. I know if Monday, for example, we stop one time framing up on the daily, the odds of this all playing out to the upside decreases. One day at a time.
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SPX ended a 9-week win streak last week but started a new one this week with a 0.65% return.
But how has SPX done in the past after events like this?
Extremely well.
Look at the 1 week/2 week/1 month forward returns below, check your puts, and clench that furry pucker.
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Top and bottom 20 IPO day returns among current Nasdaq 100 members.
Word on the street is that SpaceX could gain 30% on its IPO day.
Here are the top and bottom 20 IPO day returns among current Nasdaq 100 members.
The best IPO day performance belongs to MSTR, which surged 29.7%. If $SPCX gains more than 30%, it would take the crown.
ALT Bar chart and table ranking the top and bottom 20 IPO day returns (open-to-close) among current Nasdaq-100 members. MSTR leads with a 29.7% gain, followed by MELI ( 28.2%) and TSLA ( 25.2%). On the downside, AMZN had the weakest IPO day at -19.7%, followed by ARM (-11.5%) and AXON (-9.5%). The chart highlights the wide range of first-day performance among today's Nasdaq-100 constituents.
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Ladies and gentlemen.
I present to you.
The Holy Grail of Bear Porn.
SPX just had:
▪ A new all time high immediately followed by
▪ 6 consecutive days of a lower daily midpoint
▪ At least a -5% intraday drop
▪ And then a 1.75% day
▪ For only the 3rd time ever
Enjoy.
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SPX and TLT have a chance to both end green today, up at least 1% each.
That has only happened 59 times in the last 5,355 trading days (about 1.1% of the time).
It has no predictive value whatsoever for SPX. You're welcome.
Jun 11
Such an interesting world when long bonds get bid up on a tweet that a war will end.
$tlt
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Here are the first 25 days of every S&P 500 (SPX) Bear Market this century the past 6 days for comparison.
This doesn't mean what you think it means. There have been 91 six-day-periods since 2000 worse than the one we're in and most of them were in raging bull markets.
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I deleted the SPX After Knicks post because, gigantic fucking surprise, Google fucked me in the ass on the dates.
You know...if you're going to roll out a product without testing it and then KEEP it out after it gets complaints about how fucking wrong it is, you cease to be a reliable company.
Fuck you Google and your shit attempt at AI.
Goddammit.
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