SpaceX is going public on June 12 and I can't shake the feeling it marks the top.
Not because the business is bad - it has real revenue, real government contracts, real cash flows. The underlying company is probably fine.
But historically, the most celebrated private company of a generation going public tends to happen right at peak narrative saturation. It's the moment when every thematic bet of the last decade - space, Elon, AI, American technological dominance - gets packaged into a single ticker and handed to the broadest possible audience.
That's usually when the smart money has found its exit.
The thing to watch isn't the IPO price, it's the demand composition. If retail crowds out institutional allocation on day one, that tells you something about where we are in the cycle.
Could be wrong. But it feels like the kind of moment you look back on.