So basically everyone is going to perfectly time the BTC bottom because "The 4-Year Cycle™" says it’s happening between Aug-Oct 2026. Everyone goes all-in at the exact same time, and we all get filthy rich. Pack it up boys, we cracked the code. :)

This is crazy... bitcoin:native daily RSI lowest since November 2018

I think most of you guys are married to the the 4 year cycle/bottom in Q4 2026 narrative and will miss a significant summer rally.

I think a lot of you guys are vastly underestimating how fast things can move, especially from oversold levels.

Ready for Takeoff

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Guys I think I have an idea and I think I'm on to something. Crypto, but it goes up sometimes instead of only down.

On a positive note, soon there will be no longs left to liquidate which will probably be our salvation

they're now rugpulling the perioidic table

I posted this earlier in the week on @RealVision, but thought it was worth sharing here as well, just to give everyone something to think about. If you step back and look at the data, something interesting is happening in markets right now… When you line up liquidity with equities, you get this (chart 1).   And then compare that with the same liquidity measure versus Bitcoin (chart 2), a simple truth emerges: Both cannot be right...   Either equities are fundamentally mispricing liquidity despite trading near record highs, or Bitcoin is correctly signaling that the liquidity cycle has already peaked and that risk assets are about to roll over. Only one of these outcomes can ultimately be correct.   Now let’s separate data from opinion for a moment...   The data is clear: Global liquidity has not yet peaked.   Now to my subjective view…   I think Bitcoin remains the outlier here, and that the events around 10/10 temporarily distorted price discovery, for reasons I’ve discussed at length previously.    Equities, credit, and broader risk assets are behaving exactly as you would expect in a rising liquidity regime. They’re hovering near all-time highs...   Bitcoin, by contrast, is pricing a liquidity peak that the data simply does not support at this stage.   At some point you have to step back and ask: Is it more likely that one asset is right, or that every other BTC-correlated risk asset is wrong (chart 3)?   If you then layer in broader financial conditions, it stops being about opinion and becomes more about probabilities (chart 4). What really stands out to me is the sheer magnitude of the “Excess Fear Gaps” that have opened up relative to the macro and liquidity fundamentals.   Right now, the weight of the evidence suggests liquidity is still rising and, in our view, will continue to rise, and that is what risk assets are reflecting.   That means Bitcoin is the anomaly.   What I’ve done here is present the data objectively and my view subjectively.   This is the battlefield for 2026.   The bull versus bear debate comes down to one thing and one thing only: The direction of global liquidity...

Price targeting I absolutely do NOT believe in determining price targets with log scale graphs -- ONLY on linear scale The 2X target in $SI_F is $128 Warning, the higher we go now, the longer and deeper will be the correction Whatever the high is, it might not be seen for years

State of the market

The lion wonders why it deserves all of this.

The lion ist severely depressed