My theory is that the dot-com crash around 2000 was prolonged because investors left the stock market and ran towards real estate, which was a highly popular investment in the early 2000s until it popped around 2008. Today, real estate remains unpopular and there are no other comparable alternative investment to the stock market (except maybe commodities for now). This situation is forcing everyday investors to remain confident in the stock market no matter what. As a result, it becomes difficult for the market to stay down for long, because every dip gets bought by everyday investors who feel like they have to buy and stay invested. The alternative is bleak and people can’t have that, especially when cost of living is inflating. Until there is a viable alternative asset that rivals the stock market, maybe the stock market will remain a self-perpetuating confidence machine that investors just won’t let go.

The sentiment I have toward $ADBE and $PYPL as a customer is probably comparable to how the stock market feels about them. It’s a sentiment of respect that borders on aversion. Their products are good, but I can sense the arrogance in the way they treat their customers. I use their products, but I also scout for alternatives. This arguably parallels how the stock market feels about them. They may have good earnings, but the market sentiment toward them isn’t particularly positive. On paper, their stocks deserve respect, but there is something aversive about them. Can they turn things around? Maybe. But they probably have to change the way they treat their customers first. I suspect they’re too focused on their balance sheets, they forget about the importance of customer and market sentiments. They can be one and the same, or what goes around comes around. Something like that.

My entire portfolio as of today: - 7 broad-market ETFs (CAD) - 3 broad-market ETFs (USD) - Silver, gold, and 4 mining ETFs

New all-time highs coming soon for the S&P 500.

People who yell “tax the rich” are: 1. People who don’t understand money and what it represents 2. Politicians / Celebrities who might understand money, but choose to pander to people who do not understand it to buy more power and popularity

As someone who has been using $ADBE for many years, I’m not surprised that its stock is so resistant to bouncing up. Reasons: 1. Adobe design software requires intensive learning 2. Adobe’s current user base for its design software is likely dominated by “legacy customers” who have been using Adobe out of habit (partly because of 1), and to adhere to legacy industry standards, e.g. publications 3. Adobe for Education had been a good pipeline to churn out design students who would likely be long-term Adobe users, but these days, many end up getting pulled to using other competing software when they go out to work with businesses who do not offer Adobe subscriptions for commercial uses 4. Competition, e.g. Canva, Affinity, AI 5. High CAC / Customer Acquisition Cost for new users (because of 1–4) 6. Their questionable attempts to lock in subscriptions (likely to mitigate for 5), e.g. obscure monthly/yearly subscription terms and labyrinth cancellation policies have drawn large criticisms from its user base 7. Adobe has been increasing its subscription prices (likely to mitigate for 5 by doing less of 6) 8. High CRC / Customer Retention Cost for its current user base (because of 1–4, 6–7)

It’s always amusing to watch how the news of the day affects oil, gold, silver, VIX, and the stock market like clockwork.

About 1–2% down for the day across my accounts primarily allocated to broad-market ETFs, and about 2–3% down for the day across my accounts specifically allocated to silver/gold/miners. How did you guys do?

My current investing plan remains similar to the old plan: Continue letting my daily auto-DCA buy into broad-market ETFs, silver, and a bit of miners. If the S&P 500 or silver dips by >2% or so in a day, I increase my daily DCA amount. If VIX hits 30, I’ll back up the truck.

Schrödinger’s Hormuz est. 2026

“The S&P 500 is too dominated by tech companies and the Mag 7.” Ok, but would you have built your own portfolio differently without the index?

Is it just me, or is X now truncating and displaying “Show more” on some posts that are under 280 characters?

I guess speculators are checking out of the market today. I keep seeing this market behaviour since the start of 2026. Speculators rush in for the short term, drive up prices of different assets, and then they check out, typically on Fridays for some reason.

One of those days!

Reasons why I think the stock market will go up: 1. Fourth of July (America250) 2. We just had a mini-crash in March 3. Upcoming US midterm elections 4. No comparable assets for investors to move their $ to (e.g. real estate in the early 2000s) 5. Upcoming IPOs Reasons why I think the stock market will go down: 6. Too many speculators 7. Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position 8. The stock market is at its most expensive valuation 9. The S&P 500 Shiller PE (CAPE) ratio is at its second highest level on record 10. Upcoming IPOs

Miners are a good gauge of market sentiment for gold & silver. If miners & metals go down together, there is still room for metals to go down. If miners hold or go up, but metals go down, the bottom for metals appears to be in and prices will stabilize or make a reversal soon.