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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics

Two former college ballplayers modeling the next generation of MLB Talent.

Joined January 2024
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Oyster Analytics@oysteranalytics
22 Feb 2024
1/5: Here's an explanation of our prospect modeling! Our models use minor league performance, biographical, and draft data to predict prospects' likelihood of making MLB, becoming a "regular" (at least 2 fWAR total, 1 per 600 PA) and a "star" (5 fWAR total, 2.5 per 600 PA).
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Strikeouts = Efficiency! We wrote about this last year, and Miz’s elite outing should convince some of the doubters that Ks create outs, and outs create efficiency!
Rob Friedman
@PitchingNinja
Jun 13
Jacob Misiorowski. 15 STRIKEOUT MADDUX. 😳 9 innings, 0 runs, 15Ks, 1 hit. 0 BBs. 95 pitches. Most Strikeouts EVER in a Maddux!
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Full article here: downonthefarm.substack.com/p…
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We've been huge Blaze Jordan fans for the past two seasons, and his #56 preseason rank seemed a bit absurd at the time. He's been elite in AAA this year, showing off the full potential of his contact power game (.313/ 11 HR). LA and EV are up, and we're excited for his debut!
Prospect profile graphic for Blaze Jordan, St. Louis Cardinals first baseman and third baseman (1B/3B). Jordan is ranked No. 66 overall and No. 3 in the Cardinals system. The card shows a 69% probability of becoming an MLB contributor, 52% chance of becoming a regular, and 12% chance of reaching star status. Relative metrics compared to league average highlight excellent strikeout avoidance ( 1.71 SD), strong developmental speed ( 1.17), contact ability ( 1.13), gap power ( 1.11), and above-average home run power ( 0.76). Areas below average include plate discipline (-0.84) and lift ability (-0.52). A confidence meter near the bottom indicates a high degree of confidence in the projection. The listed player comparison is Gio Urshela (2013).

ALT Prospect profile graphic for Blaze Jordan, St. Louis Cardinals first baseman and third baseman (1B/3B). Jordan is ranked No. 66 overall and No. 3 in the Cardinals system. The card shows a 69% probability of becoming an MLB contributor, 52% chance of becoming a regular, and 12% chance of reaching star status. Relative metrics compared to league average highlight excellent strikeout avoidance ( 1.71 SD), strong developmental speed ( 1.17), contact ability ( 1.13), gap power ( 1.11), and above-average home run power ( 0.76). Areas below average include plate discipline (-0.84) and lift ability (-0.52). A confidence meter near the bottom indicates a high degree of confidence in the projection. The listed player comparison is Gio Urshela (2013).

St. Louis Cardinals
@Cardinals
Jun 12
Welcome to The Show, Blaze! We have selected the contract of INF Blaze Jordan from Memphis (AAA).
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Rodríguez is an Oyster model darling, as he's young for the level, has both power and contact skills, and has demonstrated improved patience in 2026. There's platoon risk here (vs. LHP), but so few hitters have the boom to complement bat-to-ball. The cycle showcases it all!
Prospect profile graphic for Hector Rodriguez, Cincinnati Reds left fielder (LF). Rodriguez is ranked No. 79 overall and No. 2 in the Reds system. The card shows a 62% probability of becoming an MLB contributor, 42% chance of becoming a regular, and 9% chance of reaching star status. Relative metrics compared to league average include plus developmental speed ( 1.52 SD), above-average strikeout avoidance ( 0.90), contact ability ( 0.86), home run power ( 0.58), and gap power ( 0.07), with below-average discipline (-0.56) and lift ability (-0.53). A confidence meter at the bottom indicates a high level of confidence in the projection. The listed player comparison is Alec Burleson (2022).

ALT Prospect profile graphic for Hector Rodriguez, Cincinnati Reds left fielder (LF). Rodriguez is ranked No. 79 overall and No. 2 in the Reds system. The card shows a 62% probability of becoming an MLB contributor, 42% chance of becoming a regular, and 9% chance of reaching star status. Relative metrics compared to league average include plus developmental speed ( 1.52 SD), above-average strikeout avoidance ( 0.90), contact ability ( 0.86), home run power ( 0.58), and gap power ( 0.07), with below-average discipline (-0.56) and lift ability (-0.53). A confidence meter at the bottom indicates a high level of confidence in the projection. The listed player comparison is Alec Burleson (2022).

Louisville Bats
@LouisvilleBats
Jun 11
THATS A CYCLE FOR HÉCTOR 🚨🚨🚨
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We thought our model was a bit crazy putting Lara as our preseason #31 overall hitting prospect, but he's been elite this season, adding enough power to complement his strong hit tool. As he adds strength, the ceiling could rise further, and his great glove gives a high floor!
Luis Lara prospect profile card for a Milwaukee center fielder ranked #23 overall and #4 in the Milwaukee system. The card highlights strong contact-oriented skills with above-average developmental speed ( 1.88 SD), strike-zone discipline ( 1.16), strikeout avoidance ( 1.35), and contact ability ( 1.05) relative to league average. Gap power grades slightly above average ( 0.16), while home run power (-0.51) and lift (-0.90) rate below average. Career outcome projections show an 89% chance to become a contributor, 89% chance to reach regular status, and a 41% chance to develop into a star. The comparison listed is Rafael Ortega (2013), with a high confidence rating indicated by the confidence meter.

ALT Luis Lara prospect profile card for a Milwaukee center fielder ranked #23 overall and #4 in the Milwaukee system. The card highlights strong contact-oriented skills with above-average developmental speed ( 1.88 SD), strike-zone discipline ( 1.16), strikeout avoidance ( 1.35), and contact ability ( 1.05) relative to league average. Gap power grades slightly above average ( 0.16), while home run power (-0.51) and lift (-0.90) rate below average. Career outcome projections show an 89% chance to become a contributor, 89% chance to reach regular status, and a 41% chance to develop into a star. The comparison listed is Rafael Ortega (2013), with a high confidence rating indicated by the confidence meter.

Prospect Savant@ProspectSavant
Jun 9
Given Lara’s floor alone from his hit tool, speed, and defensive abilities, 31 million for 7 years should be a steal for Milwaukee. Check out more on Lara here - prospectsavant.com/player/80…
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Like @TJStats, we are concerned about the low contact rates, coupled with good but not fantastic power for a 23-year-old. He would make big steps forward, though, if he elevated the ball more, as his poor FB% caps his pop. He has a decent OF floor as well!
Player card for Braden Montgomery, a center fielder in the Chicago White Sox organization. Montgomery is ranked as the No. 195 overall prospect and the No. 6 prospect in the White Sox system. The card shows a projected 22% chance of becoming an MLB contributor, 17% chance of reaching regular status, and 10% chance of developing into a star player. Relative tool grades compared to league average highlight strong gap power ( 1.24 SD), above-average contact ( 0.93), discipline ( 0.63), and development speed ( 0.60). Home run power rates slightly above average ( 0.46), while strikeout avoidance (-0.18) and lift ability (-0.09) grade below average. His closest statistical comparison is Jake Meyers' 2019 season. A confidence meter at the bottom indicates a high level of confidence in the projection.

ALT Player card for Braden Montgomery, a center fielder in the Chicago White Sox organization. Montgomery is ranked as the No. 195 overall prospect and the No. 6 prospect in the White Sox system. The card shows a projected 22% chance of becoming an MLB contributor, 17% chance of reaching regular status, and 10% chance of developing into a star player. Relative tool grades compared to league average highlight strong gap power ( 1.24 SD), above-average contact ( 0.93), discipline ( 0.63), and development speed ( 0.60). Home run power rates slightly above average ( 0.46), while strikeout avoidance (-0.18) and lift ability (-0.09) grade below average. His closest statistical comparison is Jake Meyers' 2019 season. A confidence meter at the bottom indicates a high level of confidence in the projection.

Thomas Nestico
@TJStats
Jun 9
Braden Montgomery gets the call! Montgomery (TJStats # 30 Prospect) is a switch-hitting outfielder with a loud bat, advanced approach, and strong glove. His contact woes put a damper on his profile, but he projects to be a an everyday regular for the White Sox Congratulations!
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For this week's Down on the Farm Podcast, we wanted to take question submissions for our followers! Ask about anything minor leagues, projections, our articles, or anything else, and we'll answer your questions on this week's pod!
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Emerson's high K rate in MLB was as expected, but we didn't foresee his jump in power! He has been elevating well in the bigs, upping his overall power output. He's still vastly outperforming his xwOBA, but this is a welcome change for the typically GB-happy Emerson.
Oyster Analytics prospect card for Seattle Mariners shortstop Colt Emerson. Emerson is ranked as the No. 7 overall prospect and the No. 1 prospect in Seattle's system. The card shows extremely high projected MLB outcomes, with a 99% chance of becoming a contributor, 99% chance of becoming a regular, and 93% chance of reaching star status. Relative skill metrics compared to league average highlight elite developmental speed ( 2.2 standard deviations), along with above-average discipline ( 0.32), strikeout avoidance ( 0.95), contact ability ( 0.82), and gap power ( 0.69). Home run power grades slightly above average ( 0.12), while lift is slightly below average (-0.17). A career outcome chart displays strong probabilities of achieving between 3 and 4 prime WAR per season, supported by a high confidence meter. The listed player comparison is Daniel Robertson (2015).

ALT Oyster Analytics prospect card for Seattle Mariners shortstop Colt Emerson. Emerson is ranked as the No. 7 overall prospect and the No. 1 prospect in Seattle's system. The card shows extremely high projected MLB outcomes, with a 99% chance of becoming a contributor, 99% chance of becoming a regular, and 93% chance of reaching star status. Relative skill metrics compared to league average highlight elite developmental speed ( 2.2 standard deviations), along with above-average discipline ( 0.32), strikeout avoidance ( 0.95), contact ability ( 0.82), and gap power ( 0.69). Home run power grades slightly above average ( 0.12), while lift is slightly below average (-0.17). A career outcome chart displays strong probabilities of achieving between 3 and 4 prime WAR per season, supported by a high confidence meter. The listed player comparison is Daniel Robertson (2015).
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Oyster Analytics retweeted
Down on the Farm@downonthefarm12
Jun 5
With managers often getting stick for pitching change decisions that go wrong, we set out to evaluate these managerial calls. Splitting the Napoleons (those who let pitchers ride till the end) from the quick hook McClellans and Grants, we evaluate each manager's decision-making!
Thumbnail combining famous military imagery with three baseball managers. On the left is a black-and-white portrait of General McClellan in uniform. On the right is the iconic painting of Napoleon Bonaparte crossing the Alps on horseback. Centered between the two historical figures are cutout headshots of three MLB managers stacked vertically: a Los Angeles Dodgers manager at the top, a Tampa Bay Rays manager in the middle, and a New York Yankees manager at the bottom. The graphic visually compares baseball managers to notable military commanders and strategists from history.

ALT Thumbnail combining famous military imagery with three baseball managers. On the left is a black-and-white portrait of General McClellan in uniform. On the right is the iconic painting of Napoleon Bonaparte crossing the Alps on horseback. Centered between the two historical figures are cutout headshots of three MLB managers stacked vertically: a Los Angeles Dodgers manager at the top, a Tampa Bay Rays manager in the middle, and a New York Yankees manager at the bottom. The graphic visually compares baseball managers to notable military commanders and strategists from history.

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Oyster Analytics retweeted
Down on the Farm@downonthefarm12
Jun 4
This week, for the Down on the Farm Podcast, we'd like to do a mailbag segment! Have questions on our rankings, prospects in general, in-game strategy, our past articles, or anything else? Now is the time to ask! We'll get to as many questions as we can on next Tuesday's pod!
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Dave Roberts sounds like us on the pod: it’s all about age/level and position plays a massive role in projectability!
Chuy 🏃🏽‍♂️💨🆙@LethalCashChuy
Jun 2
Dave Roberts got hit with the uno reverse card 🤣
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We were surprised when Arroyo cracked our preseason top 30, but he's torn up Triple-A this season! His power is the best it has ever been, his contact rates are stellar, and he's elevating at a high rate. His lone fear is high chase rates, but his contact helps compensate!
Prospect card for Cincinnati Reds shortstop Edwin Arroyo. Arroyo is ranked as the No. 37 overall prospect and the No. 1 prospect in the Reds system. Career outcome projections show an 84% chance of becoming a contributor, 69% chance of becoming a regular, and 49% chance of becoming a star. Relative skill grades versus league average highlight plus developmental speed ( 1.46 SD), contact ( 1.33), and strikeout avoidance ( 0.94), with average gap power ( 0.31), modest lift ( 0.52), below-average plate discipline (-0.96), and near-average home run power (-0.04). The confidence meter is high, and his statistical comparison is Kevin Newman’s 2017 season.

ALT Prospect card for Cincinnati Reds shortstop Edwin Arroyo. Arroyo is ranked as the No. 37 overall prospect and the No. 1 prospect in the Reds system. Career outcome projections show an 84% chance of becoming a contributor, 69% chance of becoming a regular, and 49% chance of becoming a star. Relative skill grades versus league average highlight plus developmental speed ( 1.46 SD), contact ( 1.33), and strikeout avoidance ( 0.94), with average gap power ( 0.31), modest lift ( 0.52), below-average plate discipline (-0.96), and near-average home run power (-0.04). The confidence meter is high, and his statistical comparison is Kevin Newman’s 2017 season.

Francys Romero
@francysromeroFR
Jun 1
The Cincinnati Reds plan to promote infielder prospect Edwin Arroyo in the coming hours, per sources. Arroyo, 22, a native of Puerto Rico, is the Reds' No. 3 prospect according to @MLBPipeline. Elly De La Cruz is expected to be placed on the injured list.
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We talked about Gonzalez in a few pieces, he’s been one of 2026’s breakout stars! He may be set to debut, and with his new power, he’s ready.
FutureSox
@FutureSox
May 30
Jacob Gonzalez called out on an inside slider. He has now been pulled from the game. He went to SS, and was called back. #Knights
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Arias has been Keith Law's guy since day one, and we concur with his aggressive projection! Very few SS show plus power without K issues, but Arias is that guy. As he's gained strength, the power has fully surfaced, and he's shot up our model. A future star!
Franklin Arias, ranked the No. 12 overall prospect and top prospect in the Red Sox system, shows an elite offensive foundation driven by bat-to-ball skills. His profile features standout development speed (1.97 SD above league average), strikeout avoidance (1.90), and contact ability (1.65), with solid emerging home run power. The model gives Arias a 99% chance to become a contributor, 98% chance to become a regular, and 68% chance to reach star status. Jackson Merrill (2023) is listed as the top statistical comparison.

ALT Franklin Arias, ranked the No. 12 overall prospect and top prospect in the Red Sox system, shows an elite offensive foundation driven by bat-to-ball skills. His profile features standout development speed (1.97 SD above league average), strikeout avoidance (1.90), and contact ability (1.65), with solid emerging home run power. The model gives Arias a 99% chance to become a contributor, 98% chance to become a regular, and 68% chance to reach star status. Jackson Merrill (2023) is listed as the top statistical comparison.

The Athletic MLB
@TheAthleticMLB
May 28
We’ve already seen a plethora of players from @keithlaw’s preseason top 100 MLB prospect rankings reach or appear in the majors this year, including the top two prospects, five of the top 10, four of the next 10 and 18 from the top 50.
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Was away during Ramírez's debut, but better late than never! Ramírez made our preseason top 100 as a young player with elite contact skills, but this year, he's added high-end power to the mix. If there's one under-the-radar 2026 debut that hits it big, we think it's him!
Pedro Ramirez prospect card for the Cubs organization. Ramirez is ranked the No. 101 overall prospect and No. 3 Cubs prospect, with positions listed as second base and third base. The card highlights strong bat-to-ball skills and speed, including plus development speed (1.44 SD above league average), contact (1.25), and strikeout avoidance (1.20), while showing below-average discipline, home run power, and lift. Career outcome probabilities project a 52% chance to become a contributor, 36% chance to become a regular, and 9% chance to become a star. The comparison player listed is Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s 2017 season profile, and the confidence meter is displayed near maximum.

ALT Pedro Ramirez prospect card for the Cubs organization. Ramirez is ranked the No. 101 overall prospect and No. 3 Cubs prospect, with positions listed as second base and third base. The card highlights strong bat-to-ball skills and speed, including plus development speed (1.44 SD above league average), contact (1.25), and strikeout avoidance (1.20), while showing below-average discipline, home run power, and lift. Career outcome probabilities project a 52% chance to become a contributor, 36% chance to become a regular, and 9% chance to become a star. The comparison player listed is Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s 2017 season profile, and the confidence meter is displayed near maximum.

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Oyster Analytics retweeted
Down on the Farm@downonthefarm12
May 22
The industry is settled on the Jesús Mades of the world, but what about guys fresh to the fold? First-full-year prospects tend to be polarizing, and we take a look at these "engmas" and others who have yo-yoed in our model to see if their surges are worth paying attention to!
A codex with Rays prospect Taitn Gray in the center.

ALT A codex with Rays prospect Taitn Gray in the center.

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If you're as obsessed with minor league baseball as we are, the Down on the Farm podcast might seem AI-targeted for your listening pleasure! Check out this week's version (and others) at the link in the comments.
The Hollywood Reporter
@THR
May 21
Spotify Introduces AI-Generated Personal Podcasts hollywoodreporter.com/busine…
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Podcast Link: downonthefarm.substack.com/p…
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Oyster Analytics retweeted
Down on the Farm@downonthefarm12
May 19
This week's podcast is out! We talk Devin Fitz-Gerald's McGonigle-esque High-A run, how teams can target underrated players in trades, and why we're okay with newly modeled talent "yo-yoing" in our rankings. Tune in on our Substack or your favorite podcast streaming outlet.
Yeremy Cabrera readies his swing.

ALT Yeremy Cabrera readies his swing.
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Oyster Analytics retweeted
Down on the Farm@downonthefarm12
May 18
Devin Fitz-Gerald headlines this week's hottest prospects with his banner 5 HR outburst! We write about him, Kane Kepley, Joshua Kuroda-Grauer, and more in this week's Weekly Pearls piece. Link in comments.
Fitz-Gerald celebrates post HR.

ALT Fitz-Gerald celebrates post HR.

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