Senior Data Journalist @focaldataHQ. Also on 🦋. (he/him) 🏳️🌈 patrick@focaldata.com
Joined April 2020
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Pinned Tweet
7 Nov 2024
Hard to overstate just how rapid the changes in US party coalitions have been.
The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true.
On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!
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Patrick Flynn retweeted
Firstly, let's look at how views change with age.
Men's views are U-shaped: the youngest and oldest men are the most positive, dipping in middle age.
Meanwhile women's views vary little by age group. There is only a slight upwards slope in positivty from 18 to 75.
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May 16
Stats-based forecast for tonight’s Eurovision final (average overall ranks shown from 250,000 simulations)
My model got 20/20 qualifiers correct during the semi-finals — let’s see how it fares tonight!
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Patrick Flynn retweeted
May 14
The local elections in one chart. Labour has been squeezed between the Greens in young wards and Reform in older working-class wards
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May 9
Genuine question: Why can we not, at the very least, produce half of ballot papers in reverse alphabetical order?
Seems like changing one’s surname to Aarons by deed poll might actually be a better use of election resources than actually campaigning!
May 9
Now the dust has settled from the local elections, it's time to talk about vote-rigging. In particular, the way in which a sinister force has been manipulating British democracy in council after council, year after year. That force? The goddamn alphabet. (1/?)
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May 7
Data question: Has anyone produced estimates for how the wards voting tonight voted in 2024 overall?
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Apr 23
Today we've launched a new Workforce AI Tracker in partnership with the @FT, including our first white paper for the project.
🧵 Subsequent reports will focus on particular topics in depth, but here’s a quick ‘state of play’ of where we’re at...
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Apr 23
So what comes next? We outline three scenarios in the white paper, or the “ABCs”: Augmentation, Bifurcation, or Crash. The data we have collected indicates the middle option is the most likely. Find out more by reading the full white paper below.
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Apr 22
Excited to reveal the first @focaldataHQ House of Representatives MRP poll of 2026.
🔵 Democrats: 228 seats ( 13)
🔴 Republicans: 207 seats (-13)
Fieldwork conducted up to Monday this week, and the model accounts for last night's redistricting referendum in Virginia.
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