항상 유동성을 가져라 🧸🎯
Joined August 2023
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The speculative excess on Zcash was washed out in a single day 60% crash. Now that zooko has confirmed they have Mythos access, the Ironwood update should ensure 1) the protocol is secure 2) the bug was never exploited, making the only privacy coin that is verifiably safe from this.
At the same time, spot selling has finally subsided for the first time since the hack
time to ZODL again?
Jun 12
Thanks, Anthropic, for helping protect Zcash users. At Shielded Labs’s request, they ran a security audit of Zcash with Mythos. It did not find any more serious bugs in the Zcash protocol. Shielded Labs and others are continuing security hardening work. Stay tuned for updates.
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Sold SNAP and bought $RDW
Reasoning is big bro HSC is long
Bought SNAP @ 4.88
- activist capital is coming in retail interest
- company has been very poorly ran over the last year
- stock down 50% from January b16z thesis
- friends are still heavy users of the product
- users are now forced to pay for Snapchat premium otherwise memories get deleted
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Set and forget $SPCX
XPL 2.0
30 Oct 2020
Great question.
I won’t do % bc it’s too much work:
- BTC
- ETH -
- SNX -
- AAVE -
Equities:
- RUN -
- Whenever SpaceX IPOs
- PLTR
- XLK
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hyperliquid:native underperformance is easy to underwrite
Crypto has been great at pricing growth early and monetizing it
We’ve had a large number of projects go from hundreds of millions to multiple deca billions
Yet continuation almost never happens
50b to 100b and sustained multiples very rare
Crypto is risk capital and should be treated as such
Tragedy of hypertokenomy
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playrisk retweeted
Jun 9
"A Thematic Bet for the Coming Space & Satellites Meta"
// a risky & interesting play on the coming Space & Satellites Season
recently, the markets has been telegraphing that the biggest space meta in recent times is coming.
the $spcx ipo has elon's full and undivided attention for the near future - check the unlock schedules and u'll realize that most of the current phase's unlocks happen between june-august.
in other words, market movers are incentivized to bring as much mindshare & attention to the incoming theme of Space, Satellites, Satellite Networks.
look into revenue trajectories & realize that spacex's primary growth drivers has always been its Satellites & Satellite Network businesses.
guess who is selling shovels in the upcoming 2T space & satellites meta?
a 160M mcap company in Hauppauge, New York.
the only US-based AI-RAN & SATCOM Satellite Infrastructure provider.
$AMPG.
dd findings / thesis:
1. AMPG designs, develops, and manufactures precision RF/microwave components specifically optimized for SATCOM and space systems.
2. the flagship “only U.S.” product is their ultra-low noise figure LNBs (Low Noise Block Downconverters) and related Satellite Access Point Block Downconverters (BDCs).
3. these are critical front-end components in satellite ground stations, teleports, satellite dishes, and deep-space communication systems.
4. they receive weak satellite signals (from GEO, MEO, LEO constellations, or deep-space probes), amplify them with the industry’s lowest added noise, and downconvert the frequency for further processing.
their directly available, already-positioned markets include:
1. Commercial and military SATCOM (streaming, data, broadband). Small sats, LEO/MEO/GEO satellite networks.
2. Deep-space communications.
3. Test equipment for satellite access point antennas worldwide.
in other words, the exact sectors positioned to enjoy one of, if not the highest speculative premium AND growth upside in the upcoming Space meta bullrun.
as per statements from AMPG,
1. “the only US based company that makes LNBs with the lowest noise figures in the industry, an essential component at the heart of satellite dishes, ground stations, and teleports that are used in military and commercial streaming and data platforms across the globe.”
2. “Lowest Noise Figure Block Downconverters (LNBs): Essential for satellite ground stations and deep space communications.”
not to mention, $AMPG is the only US-based homegrown infra provider for this specific SATCOM infra.
in other words - it is also aligned with the current onshoring narrative.
this positioning is part of their broader “Made in the USA” / supply-chain security narrative (alongside their claims for 5G O-RAN radios and cryogenic LNAs for quantum).
It differentiates them from foreign-dominated suppliers in the SATCOM component space.
at the current mc of writing at 160M, if market allows, it is possible for it to be rated higher and look completely normal in a market's selected sector of speculative premium in a given time.
interesting to see:
$RGTI revenue is $10M with market cap of 7B$.
$AMPG revenue is $25M with market cap of 160m$.
..and a likely space && satellites meta upcoming. perhaps the leadup to it itself alone can bring thematic shifts. after all, frontruns has been possible in previous market environments.
AMPG isn't a bet on it dominating the entire space - but it is a proxy bet that the satellite infra meta will spike as a direct product of the market pushing spacex - either on its ipo leadup or on post-ipo itself.
their SATCOM division, which is the only US-made ultra-low-noise LNBs, ULNAs & LNAs, sits squarely in the middle of the LEO ground-station & teleport supply chain that every major constellation needs.
$AMPG makes industry-leading ultra-low-noise-figure LNBs, ULNAs, and LNAs, and they market aggressively for LEO/MEO/GEO ground stations, teleports, and small-sat applications - which makes upside to ride the overall LEO growth wave well-within the table.
interesting plays in previous metas include $AXTI going from 90M mcap to $7B mcap in a few months - not saying that this will be the next $AXTI, but if/when the next meta arrives (which is likely to be Space & Satellites atm), it is obvious that the market would be hunting for the next $AXTI or $RGTI
for now, $AMPG seems to be the play well-positioned across the space / telecom sector to ride the satellite meta leadup, or hopefully the satellite meta itself - as a US-based company
you can't replicate AMPG's AI-RAN infrastructure,
you can't replicate AMPG's satellite ULNAs, LNAs infrastructure,
you can't replicate AMPG's onshoring-aligned positioning.
but most of all,
you can't replicate being at the Right Place, at the Right Time.
the bet is the leadup to the biggest Space meta bullrun in recent history
and hopefully, the biggest Space & Satellites bullrun itself.
MP
NFA DYOR - always manage risk. this is a 160m mcap stock, it is risky. only bet what you are ok with being at risk. would classify this as a high-risk thematic / narrative play as part of a broader satellite basket if possible, with any further fundamental growth additions being a nice bonus. if market allows, the hope is for a nuclear meta-like space meta. please do your own DD as well 👍
** also, the play is off a significant pump, please manage risk or even just add it on watchlist rather than blindly fomoing
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P.S. credits to the guys who found this earlier @rk8215 @chinoalemano @ChapoGrimey. i just got in yesterday at 6$ (160M mcap) from seeing them spot the new customers $NVDA $AMZN being added to ampg's newly launched website's customer list without announcement
quite reminiscent of how $DGXX went from 200m to 800m mcap just from the customer list stealth additions, leading up to the announcement - without even counting the upcoming space meta premium.
personally i am entering this play knowing that it's high-risk. rationale is that on very favorable string of sequences there is a possibility for microcaps to do very well (we have seen this with $RGTI $AXTI and more) but for every crazy play there's a hundred that doesn't play out, so please don't fomo and manage risk accordingly.
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note: i like this play and hope it does well, but if market shifts or plays shift for whatever reason, i will reduce my exposure ad-hoc. will say once again to please not over-expose yourself and manage risk accordingly 🙏 these are very high risk plays.
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playrisk retweeted
Jun 9
The shakeout before the mega IPO melt up
(bit lower on everything first though please)
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Good add from chief compliance officer Risk
Spent some time with @NoodleBobz on why the skills that made you money in crypto can actively hurt you in stocks. Here are some of them.
1. Being retail is a genuine advantage. No benchmark, no LPs, no risk committee, no forced rebalancing. Institutions are often forced to trade around positions that you can simply hold. Crypto trains you to stay active, but here the freedom to hold is the edge.
2. Understand valuation floors. In crypto, the "fair value is 0" fear is real. In equities there are actual metrics that can provide some level of support. Earnings, book value, cash flows, takeout value. Knowing even the basics helps you hold through drawdowns.
3. Zoom out from short-term price action, and let winners ride. Crypto conditions you to react to every candle. In equities, mechanical flows like EOM rebalancing, options expiry, and index rebalancing can move stocks around without changing the thesis, so it's completely normal for a stock to chop for weeks before continuing higher. The same reflex shows up on the upside: perps condition you to take profit every 10%, but momentum can persist much longer, and a stock can grind higher for months after strong earnings. Most people end up more frustrated from selling too early than holding too long. That said, always reassess after big events like earnings, guidance changes, or management shifts. Don't confuse holding through short-term PA with ignoring new information.
4. There are far fewer PvP dynamics. Your edge doesn't come from being faster than another trader. You don't need to top-tick entries or bottom-tick exits. If the thesis is right, focus on capturing the bulk of the move rather than optimizing every trade.
5. Build deep conviction on a small number of ideas. The crypto habit of chasing every rotation can be costly in equities. The trap is constantly jumping sectors because something else is moving. Build a focused watchlist and understand the thesis well enough to hold through volatility. The biggest winners are often the positions you know best.
6. Pay attention to what's actually working. Market leadership often tells you more than macro commentary. Watch where capital is flowing and which types of stocks are being rewarded. If low-quality names and retail favorites are ripping, that's useful information about the environment you're operating in.
7. Understand what's driving your position. Know how much of your thesis is idiosyncratic versus tied to sector or market beta. When macro becomes hectic, stocks with strong company-specific drivers often hold up much better than you'd expect. Not everything is tied to BTC here.
That said, don't underrate what you bring. crypto runs the same cycles as equities, just compressed into months instead of years. You have already sat through more euphoria, capitulation, and recovery than most equity traders see in a decade. You have just been trained for it at higher speed.
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playrisk retweeted
Jun 3
NAV is subject to change significantly.
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The only vertical that has more revenue to date than Hyperliquid is trading front ends on solana
Axiom etc all pulled 300m EACH
Trenchers have the highest velocity capital. With the demand coming to phantom perps it’s clear these guys want a competitive place to Hyperliquid. 1 stop shop for memes, spot perps that’s JTX
With their staking business and architecture knowledge these guys are the best positioned to capture a good market share
foundation is basically helping them ALOT
80% of the rev is going back to buybacks
I’m super bullish on JTX and JTO bought a lot of spot at 0.53 now just waiting
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$PRL is probably one of those things you don’t want to be ignoring
(advice from a top blaster)
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