Official Journal of the Society for Political Methodology
Joined September 2010
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3 Dec 2024
We're back! We are excited to share lots of new and exciting research with you all here and on our new Bluesky account. Find us at polanalysis.bsky.social!
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Currently in FirstView: In “Post-Treatment Problems: What Can We Say about the Effect of a Treatment among Sub-Groups Who (Would) Respond in Some Way?,” @chadhazlett, Nina McMurry, and @TanviShinkre propose the treatment reactive average causal effect (TRACE).
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TRACE is the total effect of treatment in the group that would realize a particular value of the relevant post-treatment variable. Unlike other approaches, TRACE does not require strong and untestable assumptions. Read the paper here: cambridge.org/core/journals/…
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Currently in FirstView: In “Estimating Treatment Effects on Proportions with Synthetic Controls,” @konboga and Lukas Stoetzer examine synthetic control methods (SCMs) and make the case for jointly estimating synthetic controls across multiple compositional outcomes.
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Using a simulation and two replication studies, they demonstrate that this approach adheres to the compositional data constraints and offers a more accurate interpretation of estimated treatment effects for proportional outcomes. Read the paper here: cambridge.org/core/journals/…
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Currently in FirstView: In “Improving Small-Area Estimates of Public Opinion by Calibrating to Known Population Quantities,” @wpmarble and @joshclinton provide a framework for incorporating known population data to improve estimates of small subgroups in MRP models.
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They validate this method using pre-election polling from the 2022 Michigan midterm and find that their calibrated MRP estimates reduce error by as much as two thirds. You can read the full paper here: cambridge.org/core/journals/…
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Currently in FirstView: In “Text as Behavior,” @owasow proposes using features of open-ended tasks to study text as behavior. Stats like the number of characters can approximate effort and significantly improve estimation.
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The paper walks through three studies where text is used to quantify attitudes and actions. Ultimately, the paper argues that expression is sufficiently demanding that it should be understood as a form of action. Read the paper here: cambridge.org/core/journals/…
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Currently in FirstView: In “Democracy Manifest or Democracy Latent? A Unified Framework for Identifying Regime Types and Transitions,” @OmerFOrsun and @muhammet_a_bas develop and validate a framework to study regimes that addresses measurement uncertainty and missing data.
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Their framework, UNITAS, reduces the dependence of inferences on specific datasets, cut-offs, magnitude-of-change and time-window assumptions, while efficiently handling missingness and measurement uncertainty. You can read the paper here: cambridge.org/core/journals/…
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Currently in FirstView: In “Using Multilingual Language Technology to Classify Open-Ended Survey Responses: Conceptions of Democracy in a Cross-Cultural Survey Setting,” @StefanDahlberg, @JoakimNivre, and coauthors examine the use of LMs in analyzing survey open-ended responses.
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The authors introduce a methodology that integrates LMs and structured coding schemes to classify open-ended survey responses cost-effectively and find that LMs can capture democratic perceptions and handle data abstractions. Read the full paper here: cambridge.org/core/journals/…
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Currently in FirstView: In “Adaptive Randomization in Conjoint Survey Experiments,” @jennahgosciak, @danieljmolitor, and @IanLundberg1 develop a response-adaptive design for conjoint experiments that summarizes the range of effects of one attribute as a function of all others.
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By adaptively adjusting randomization probabilities via Thompson sampling, the method efficiently identifies the contexts in which the focal attribute has its most positive and most negative effects. You can read the paper here: cambridge.org/core/journals/…
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Currently in FirstView, in “From Faces to Politics: Vision-Language Models (Sometimes) Link Visual Demographic Characteristics to Ideological Labels,” Soyeon Jeon, Messi Lee, @Jacob_Montg, and @CalvinKLai ask how models use demographics as shortcuts for ideological attribution.
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All models consistently attributed more liberal ideologies to women while racial associations differed by model. They conclude that using these models political content analysis may unknowingly introduce model-specific confounds. Read the paper here: cambridge.org/core/journals/…
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Currently in FirstView: In “Correcting Nonignorable Nonresponse Bias in Turnout Estimation Using Callback Data,” Xinyu Li, Naiwen Ying, Kendrick Li, Xu Shi, and Wang Miao look at the role of callback data as a way of adjusting for nonresponse bias in estimating voter turnout.
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They propose an assumption to account for nonignorable missingness in the outcome. Integrating this assumption with covariate information provides an identifiable method for estimating voter turnout. You can read the full paper here: cambridge.org/core/journals/…
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Currently in FirstView: In “Inference at the Data’s Edge: Gaussian Processes for Estimation and Inference in the Face of Extrapolation Uncertainty,” Soonhong Cho, Doeun Kim, and Chad Hazlet illustrate the value of Gaussian Processes (GPs) for capturing counterfactual uncertainty.
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The authors offer a GP framework and highlight certain use cases. GPs have the ability to incorporate extrapolation uncertainty, widening intervals as predictions rely more heavily on assumptions beyond the observed support. Read the paper here: cambridge.org/core/journals/…
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