PollCheck Locals Performance: National Seat Count - this was quite good, with Conservatives being the largest miss at 127 seats underestimated. I missed some Conservative incumbency strength, especially in London Greens and Labour were about equally slightly overestimated. Greens were underestimated in London and slightly over in other parts of England. I'll also review 5 of the best and worst council calls I made. I've limited these to all out councils to make comparisons easier Best: Hammersmith and Fulham Walsall Newcastle-under-Lyme Westminster Birmingham Worst: Norfolk Bradford Sandwell Suffolk Bromley 🧵 1/10

Updated Makerfield average with 5 polls: Labour: 46% Reform UK: 39% Restore Britain: 7% Green: 3% Conservative: 2% Liberal Democrats: 2% Polls: Survation x2, More in Common/UCL, Opinium for Forward Democracy, Convergent for The Times 18 May - 12 June

NEW: Makerfield by-election poll: Labour: 49% Reform: 37% Greens: 5% Restore: 5% Conseravtives: 3% LD: 1% Via: Convergent 2-12 June Size: 525

Makerfield vote firmness: Burnham (Labour): 75% definitely won't change, 25% persuadable Kenyon (Reform UK): 74% / 25% Shepherd (Restore Britain): 55% / 45% Via: Opinium 3-11 June 2026

Another way to look at this is that Reform would be gaining ~8pp, while Labour would hold their 2024 numbers What effect could Burnham have nationally on Labour polling though?

With 4 constituency polls now out for Makerfield, here are the averages: Labour: 46% (range 43-49) Reform UK: 40% (39-41) Restore Britain: 8% (7-8) Green: 3% (2-3) Conservative: 2% (1-3) Liberal Democrats: 2% (1-4) Polls included: Survation x2, More in Common / UCL Policy Lab, Opinium for Forward Democracy, published between 18 May and 12 June

NEW: Makerfield by-election poll Labour: 46% Reform UK: 41% Restore Britain: 7% Conservative: 2.5% Green: <2% Liberal Democrats: <2% Via: Opinium for Forward Democracy Published 12 June 2026 Size: 543 MoE ±4.2%

Makerfield net favourability Andy Burnham: 7 Robert Kenyon: -16 Nigel Farage: -19 Keir Starmer: -48 More in Common / UCL Policy Lab 28 May - 12 June 2026 N=515

Makerfield: 2024 vote retention Burnham keeps 82% of 2024 Labour voters, and Kenyon keeps 81% of 2024 Reform voters Restore takes 15% of 2024 Reform voters, and the same amount from Conservatives Conservatives lose 48% of 2024 voters to Reform and keep just 18% (small Con base, n=47) Via: More in Common / UCL Policy Lab 28 May - 12 June 2026

NEW: Makerfield by-election poll Labour: 45% Reform UK: 40% Restore Britain: 8% Green: 3% Conservative: 2% Liberal Democrats: 1% Via: More in Common / UCL Policy Lab 28 May - 12 June 2026 N=515 MoE ±4.3%

Westminster Voting Intention: Reform UK: 25% (-2) Conservative: 18% ( 1) Greens: 17% (=) Labour: 16% ( 1) Liberal Democrats: 12% ( 1) Others: 6% (-1) SNP: 3% (=) Plaid Cymru: 2% ( 1) Via: Find Out Now MOE: ±2.1% Field Work: 10-11 Jun changes w/ 3-4 June

Westminster Voting Intention: Reform UK: 30% ( 1) Labour: 20% (-2) Conservative: 20% (-1) Liberal Democrats: 12% (=) Greens: 11% ( 1) SNP: 3% ( 1) Others: 3% ( 1) Via: More in Common MOE: ±2.1% Field Work: 5-9 Jun changes w/ 29 May-1 Jun

NEW: Makerfield Poll This is an internal Labour poll seen by the i Paper: Labour: 35% Reform: 24% Restore: 13% Undecided: 17% Candidate Net Approval: Andy Burnham: 12 Robert Kenyon: -14 Via: @theipaper

Westminster Voting Intention: Reform UK: 25% (-2) Labour: 19% ( 1) Conservative: 19% ( 1) Greens: 14% (-1) Liberal Democrats: 12% (-1) SNP: 3% (=) Restore Britain: 3% (=) Plaid Cymru: 2% ( 1) Others: 2% ( 1) Your Party: 1% ( 1) Via: YouGov MOE: ±2.0% Field Work: 7-8 June changes w/ 31 May-1 Jun

Westminster Voting Intention: Reform UK: 28% (-1) Labour: 19% ( 1) Conservative: 19% (-1) Liberal Democrats: 14% (=) Greens: 12% (=) Others: 5% (=) SNP: 3% (=) Via: Freshwater Strategy MOE: ±2.8% Field Work: 29 - 31 May changes w/ 9 - 10 May

Approval Ratings (NET) Kemi Badenoch: -4% ( 3) Ed Davey: -4% (-2) Nigel Farage: -19% (0) Zack Polanski: -19% (0) Keir Starmer: -42% ( 1) Via: Opinium Field Work: 3-5 June changes w/ 20-22 May

Westminster Voting Intention: Reform UK: 29% ( 2) Labour: 20% (=) Conservative: 17% (-1) Greens: 14% (-1) Liberal Democrats: 11% (-1) Others: 5% ( 1) SNP: 3% (=) Plaid Cymru: 1% (=) Via: Opinium MOE: ±2.2% Field Work: 3-5 June changes w/ 20-22 May

As reported this week, Birmingham City Council has a new administration. Roger Harmer is the first Liberal Democrat Leader of the council. The Lib Dems hold 12 of 101 seats - the fewest of any group after the 2026 elections. They will govern in a minority administration with the Greens who won 19 seats, and Independents of the Better Birmingham Independent Group. Combined, Greens and Lib Dems had received 32% of the vote and 31 seats Map: every ward by the party elected, with each cabinet member's ward marked.

The Swingometer has recently had a bit of a redesign (and yes dark mode is still available) Try it out at pollcheck.co.uk/demographic-…

Latest Survation poll vs GE2024 results: Labour: 49% ( 3.8) Reform: 39% ( 7.2) Restore Britain: 8% (NEW) Conservative: 1% (-9.9) Greens: 2% (-2.2) Lib Dems: 1% (-5.8) GE2024 turnout: 52.5% Robert Kenyon (Reform) is the only GE2024 candidate who is also standing in the by-election

Interesting to note the combined results of Ashton & Golborne ward group from the local elections - with Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield North being Robert Kenyon's council seat: Reform: 49% Labour: 29% Compared with Survation's sub-sample for this ward group: Labour: 64% Reform: 28% And the GE 2024 result estimates for this ward group: Labour: 43% Reform: 34% Of course, this compares local elections dynamics to a Westminster by-election, and isn't directly comparable. Still, it'll be interesting to see if Kenyon retains any advantage in his ward