Prediction Market Trader | $300k Profit | Kalshi Partner | Trade on Kalshi and earn $10 → kalshi.com/pmt
Joined July 2024
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Trump’s Wednesday address was our biggest mention market ever - over $60K on the line
It also turned into our biggest win ever
Full stream highlights
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World Cup Announcer Mentions have overtaken Trump significantly in volume, averaging close to $1M per game
Get ready to learn soccer buddy
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IMAGINE fading Sean Strickland at UFC 250
Sean Strickland just got SWARMED by cops and hauled away after sneaking into the UFC White House event 😳💀
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TRUMP G7 SUMMIT BILATERAL x.com/i/broadcasts/1dxYllgyV…
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TRUMP - MACRON Bilateral - 11:30AM
One day after announcing an Iran peace deal, Trump heads to France for the G7 summit
Macron is the first scheduled meeting of a stacked week ahead
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I don't know anything about handicapping UFC, but it'll be interesting to see if the outdoor conditions have any notable impacts on the fighters
UFC Freedom 250 is facing a chaotic weather setup on the White House South Lawn, with a 60% chance of thunderstorms, heavy downpours, and wind gusts up to 34 mph threatening to delay the outdoor fights. On top of the storm risk, brutal D.C. humidity is driving a triple-digit heat index alongside massive swarms of mosquitos and gnats that fighters will have to battle inside the cage. While the venue’s massive 92-foot overhang will keep the octagon dry, a single lightning strike within eight miles will trigger an automatic 30-minute freeze on the entire event.
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Started watching Love Island since the markets were getting volume and now I actually like the show, damn
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Some people watch the World Cup
Real ones listen to it
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The PMT fund also had a $20k middle if the Spurs won by exactly one point and was DEVASTATED watching the final seconds
Susquehanna International Group’s prediction market desk took its biggest sports loss making markets during the Knicks’ Game 4 NBA Finals comeback Wednesday, while Kalshi reported a record day for volume.
Susquehanna’s losses, a source familiar with the situation says, were almost entirely on the game-winner market.
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I hope we see more Trump Tele-Rally mentions
Really fun markets since everyone is on the same latency having to dial in by phone
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Before I tell you about the status of Iran negotiations, lets talk about fishing for an hour
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You may not like it, but at 0.1¢ this is EV.
Jun 11
What if we let Iran win World Cup if they agree to open Hormuz and not have a nuclear weapon? @realDonaldTrump
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Claude Fable 5 debuts #3 on LMArena with style control removed (what Kalshi uses to resolve)
Could this breathe live into Gemini?
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Absolutely brutal weave on “autopen”
Fair value had to be greater than 50% in that sequence
The White House ended their stream of Trump's signing early.
All strikes on the mention market bonded, but other streams stayed live.
Trump then said while signing, "Biden wouldn't do this. He would need a machine."
One trader lost a potential $70,000 on the Autopen weave.
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Knowing your counterparty and who's on the other side of a market can be a useful data point
But if your entire strategy is copy trading or tailing "picks", it's probably not going to end well
Follow for more lukewarm takes
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Would be cool if prediction market funds become a thing someday.
I think a lot of top traders (outside of sports) are already somewhat constrained by liquidity, to the point where managing outside capital wouldn’t necessarily be more profitable than using their own money.
I’d imagine versions of this probably exist already for sports & crypto MMs
Jun 10
Hypothetically, if I were to make an actively managed Prediction Market Fund, would you invest?
I would charge no management fee, but a decent performance fee- ~15% of profits
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Oil prices jumped over 1% after Trump announced resumed strikes during his bill signing
We are in an era where markets can move dramatically during any Trump live appearance
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TRUMP SIGNS SECURE AMERICA ACT x.com/i/broadcasts/1MJgNNypy…
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