Since 2015, 11 space companies have gone public. Seven destroyed shareholder value. One went bankrupt. One was delisted at $0.50 per share.
The four that survived ($RKLB 553%,
$ASTS 703%,
$PL 205%,
$LUNR 135%) carry a combined $91 billion in market cap.
The seven that failed are worth less than $5 billion combined. Revenue separated the winners from the dead. Every survivor converted technology into paying contracts before the 2022 capital window closed. Every failure burned cash on milestones alone.
SpaceX just filed its S-1. At a reported $1.75 trillion valuation on roughly $16 billion in 2025 revenue, it would price at 109x sales. The median profitable public space company trades at 17x. The roadshow starts in June 2026 and includes an unusually large retail allocation. That retail capital has to come from somewhere. Investors holding
$RKLB,
$ASTS, and
$PL as SpaceX proxies may rotate into the real thing on listing day.
$PL at 36x trailing revenue and its first year of positive cash flow is the most defensible of the four survivors.
$RKLB at 64x with a $1.85 billion backlog and Neutron launching Q4 2026 has the execution story.
$ASTS at 532x requires flawless global rollout at a scale never attempted.
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