May trading recap. It was a volatile month, but also a good one. Amid all the chaos I regained trust in my research and I'm more comfortable in my trading. More 👇

When it comes to the Iran deal, too many people focus on the narrative vs the substance. All the reporting has the deal include a 60 day ceasefire extension to negotiate the outstanding issue and the Strait of Hormuz opening. The former is just an affirmation of the status quo. The latter can be easily broken. Especially since there is no mention of Lebanon in the proposed deal. Overall, there's little chance of any meaningful progress; at the same time, the agreement can be easily broken. That being said, a lot of @Polymarket traders will focus on the wording as it is crucial in resolving the markets. While true, it is also important to think about wider implications as they are the source of alpha.

There are a lot of things that scream "fake" in this new deal narrative. Look at Gaza peace.

Anthropic is telling you exactly how things are. The reality in which everyone could access frontier models has just ended. From now on AI is good enough to be considered a national security threat. It's a new plane of global competition.

More friendly love taps.

Reckoning day.

It’s a new missile-delivery system, developed jointly by the Pentagon and Amazon. The final draft of the deal has been delivered.

Trump’s paradox: each incremental step brings us halfway closer to a deal. Zeno would be proud.

New theory: Trump is pumping the markets ahead of the SpaceX IPO. Friday at 4:01 PM everything will fall apart.

A friend in need is a friend indeed.

After a long journey from Asia I’m in the US! Different time zone posting for a bit, but hopefully will have some good insights from the trip.

Trump seems to be setting up a “ceasefire extension” for the beginning of the World Cup.

I’m going to Manifest @ManifoldMarkets. Will be happy to meet with any of you there. Anyone going?

FIFA World Cup is not exactly my cup of tea, but maybe we'll have some Iran developments to trade on. Anyway, time to have some fun! Are you in?

Fresh strikes on Iran, while Trump is distancing America from the exchange of fire. It's a change of focus in the narrative; from the Strait of Hormuz to Lebanon. The continued blockade of the strait is problematic. With no progress in sight the weight of the facts would put enormous pressure on energy prices. Now it will be Lebanon driving the news cycle (and market manipulation). It's yet another narrative trick from America. Not only does it put the Strait of Hormuz out of the limelight, but also deflects the blame for lack of progress onto Israel.

Iran put Lebanon back into the equation. Any interim deal just became more complex.