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Puruff @puruff
Joined June 2023
  • Tweets 193
  • Following 194
  • Followers 25
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Puruff@puruff
Jun 12
1/7๐Ÿงต Update on the $CSHR thesis after digging into their SEC 6-K filing. The downside is even better protected than I thought โ€” and the upside math is compelling. Here's the refined scenario analysis. ๐Ÿ‘‡
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Puruff@puruff
Jun 12
6/7The point: at $4.30, a BTC price of $40-50K is essentially already priced in. The market is discounting the bear case. So the asymmetry is clear โ€” limited downside, leveraged upside. $CSHR
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Puruff@puruff
Jun 12
7/7And $CSHR tracks BTC closely. If BTC recovers to $70-80K, I'd expect CSHR to trade $6-7 โ€” that's 50-75% upside from here. Add Russell inclusion (Nov) H1 report (July 28) as catalysts. โš ๏ธ I hold $CSHR. Not financial advice โ€” DYOR. @CoinSharesGroup
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1/7๐Ÿงต Bitcoin just broke $62K and everyone's panicking about $CSHR. So let's actually model the earnings at different BTC levels โ€” and tie each scenario to a real price. Even the worst case isn't scary. ๐Ÿ‘‡
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7/7Add Russell inclusion (Nov) US expansion not yet priced in a potential Middle East resolution down the line. Limited downside, multiple catalysts. โš ๏ธ I hold $CSHR. Not financial advice โ€” DYOR. @CoinSharesGroup
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8/8Why I write these threads: to stay anchored to the facts instead of getting swept up in the panic. Seeing the numbers in black and white keeps me honest โ€” and gives me something to look back on and backtrack against later. Process over emotion. $CSHR @CoinSharesGroup
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1/5๐Ÿงต Bitcoin is down, AUM is down โ€” so how bad is it really for $CSHR? Let's break down the revenue model and what H1 2026 might actually look like. ๐Ÿ‘‡
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4/5Capital Markets actually benefits from volatility. Trading, staking and lending revenues don't require high AUM โ€” they need market activity. And we've had plenty of that in 2026. This segment could partially offset the AUM pressure. $CSHR
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5/5Bottom line: H1 2026 earnings will likely be lower than FY2025's $114M net profit โ€” but the two-segment model provides a natural hedge. We find out July 28. At ~$4.30 and P/E below 5x, a lot of bad news looks priced in. โš ๏ธ I hold $CSHR. Not financial advice โ€” DYOR.
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