Joined March 2024
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Welcome to my systematic trading journey. I run automatic trading strategies, post every trade, and share transparent performance- win or lose.
The systems so far include Eagle Ray (flow) 🌊, Moray Eel (breakouts) 🪸, and Honey Badger (reversion) 🦡.
A bit on each below:
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Weekly thematic idea: Western refining capacity is permanently shrinking
~890 kbd of crude distillation is closing across the US, Europe and Asia in 2025-26. EIA sees US distillate output falling 8% then 4%, pushing inventories toward 20-year lows.
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(MPC) Marathon Petroleum - largest US refiner by capacity (~3M bpd) and an aggressive buyback machine. A structural ~400 kbd/yr capacity-vs-demand gap and near-20-year-low distillate inventories support mid-cycle margins, funding outsized shareholder returns.
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(CRAK) VanEck Oil Refiners ETF - the pure-play way to own the refiner survivors as a basket of global complex refiners levered to crack spreads. Cleaner expression of 'crude in surplus, conversion capacity scarce' than betting on a single refinery name.
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Moray Eel 🪸 (breakouts) TRADE ALERT:
Exiting ENOR to protect capital with a stop loss.
Position return -4.0% vs. SPY 3.7% (excess -7.6%) since 5/1/26
Taking profit in SIVR.
Position return 41.9% vs. SPY 7.4% (excess 34.5%) since 10/30/25
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ENOR: Position return -4.0% vs. SPY 3.7% (excess -7.6%) since 5/1/26
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SIVR: Position return 41.9% vs. SPY 7.4% (excess 34.5%) since 10/30/25
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Weekly scorecard for Eagle Ray, Moray Eel, and Honey Badger.
Week ending Fri 06/12.
Numbers below. Strategy charts in the thread.
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Moray Eel — -0.2% this week, 12.3% YTD.
Beating SPY by 5.0% YTD.
Moray Eel: Strikes on breakouts and watches for the next opportunity.
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Honey Badger — 3.8% this week, 10.0% YTD.
Beating SPY by 2.7% YTD.
Honey Badger: Finds downbeat assets that should fight back up.
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