crypto hft - usually wrong about everything
Joined November 2017
- Tweets 1,831
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- Followers 11,736
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138 Photos and videos
Jun 9
Anthropic is low-key the friend your mother warned you about that would give you drugs away for free to hook you into them.
Jun 9
NEW: Claude Fable 5 is only included in paid plans through June 22, after which access will move to usage credits.
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Jun 9
NEW: Claude Fable 5 is only included in paid plans through June 22, after which access will move to usage credits.
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Jun 9
My only empirical argument against AI taking all the jobs is that I’ve spent years automating things that used to consume most of my workday.
North of ~80% of what used to keep me busy through the day is now handled automatically.
And somehow I keep finding more work to do.
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Jun 6
After 8 years of dealing with crypto exchange account managers, with a few notable exceptions, I’ve learned that “having a good relationship” with them mostly gives you a false sense of usefulness.
When things are fine, they’re always around, pitching products and telling you they’re there whenever you need anything.
When you actually need them, good luck getting a reply.
Most will be at a different exchange in a few months anyway.
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Jun 6
Your best trades will come from being the counterparty to people willing to pay whatever price it takes to get in, get out, or stay in a position. Now is a good time to remember that.
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Jun 4
Saylor is discovering from first principles what convexity looks like when you’re naked long an inverse BTC contract.
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Jun 3
I don’t think I’ve seen Bitcoin’s sentiment this bad in months (likely over a year even). I might actually be a buyer here.
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Jun 3
Do people really think that when an asset is bought, there’s no one on the other side selling it?
Jun 2
Bitcoin was 69k in 2021 before Saylor and ETF’s bought $160 billion
can someone explain?
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May 24
Not a trader: You can’t beat the market. EMH.
1 year as a quant trader: EMH is the dumbest thing academia ever came up with. Markets are obviously inefficient.
3 years as a quant trader: JFC. Every edge is crowded, every signal decays, and the market is basically efficient the moment I try to trade it.
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May 23
What 7 months at one of the world’s top trading firms does to a mf
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May 20
What's the Codex equivalent of Claude's --dangerously-skip-permissions?
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May 13
I honestly don’t think there’s any market where “Main St.” has an edge over “Wall St.”
There may be markets where some retail participants have edge over other retail participants, but on the long run the big boys always win.
May 13
Kalshi is the only financial market where Main St. has an edge over Wall St.
Gigi, Nicholas, Brandon, Joel, Heather, Paul, and Stephanie have all found their edge and mastered their own niche on Kalshi.
Prediction markets are the people’s markets.
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May 6
Battle with Claude Code on Opus 4.7 for an hour over an issue that feels trivial but it just can’t get right.
Ask Claude to write me a handoff so I can take the same issue to Codex.
Codex on GPT-5.5 gets it right on the first try.
This has basically been my workflow lately.
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Apr 30
It feels like everyone in my TL has had a Jane Street interview.
At the same time, they have over 3k employees, and they likely interview at least a dozen for each hire, so it checks out. Also, my account likely has a massive selection bias too from the X algo.
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Apr 25
One mistake I’ve made more than once as a quant: underestimating how much bad scenarios correlate.
You over-leverage thinking you can rebalance fast, then the moment you need to move funds, withdrawals are slow or frozen, liquidity dries up, and everything is moving against you.
Things going wrong correlate with other things going wrong. They’re rarely independent, even if they look unrelated on paper.
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Apr 24
"Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome."
— Charlie Munger.
Apr 23
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 DOJ arrests US special forces soldier involved in Venezuelan President Maduro's capture for making over $400,000 betting on his removal from office.
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Apr 21
Most of crypto is starting to look exactly like what critics said it was: glorified, unnecessarily complex distributed databases with centralized control. Bullish on the industry consolidating into just a handful of assets.
The Arbitrum Security Council has taken emergency action to freeze the 30,766 ETH being held in the address on Arbitrum One that is connected to the KelpDAO exploit. The Security Council acted with input from law enforcement as to the exploiter’s identity, and, at all times, weighed its commitment to the security and integrity of the Arbitrum community without impacting any Arbitrum users or applications.
After significant technical diligence and deliberation, the Security Council identified and executed a technical approach to move funds to safety without affecting any other chain state or Arbitrum users.
As of April 20 11:26pm ET the funds have been successfully transferred to an intermediary frozen wallet. They are no longer accessible to the address that originally held the funds, and can only be moved by further action by Arbitrum governance, which will be coordinated with relevant parties.
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Apr 15
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Apr 13
Countries that treat healthcare as a right show this is not about forcing anyone to work. It is about priorities and system design.
It still amazes me how bad the US healthcare system is. Only someone who doesn’t know any better could defend it.
And yes, I am saying that as a die-hard capitalist.
Apr 13
i see, so you will force doctors nurses and scientists to work. i'm with you, comrade!
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