We’re calling it: The war in Ukraine has entered a new phase. @KatStepanenko and I have authored a new special report studying how Ukraine is actively challenging the positional character of the war that has dominated the battlefield since 2023. Data on Russia’s battlefield performance indicates that the character of the war is shifting in favor of Ukrainian forces – at least for now. Russian forces rates of advances are stagnating while Ukrainian forces are employing novel tactics and operational concepts in efforts to break out of positional warfare. Neither Russia nor Ukraine can conduct operational maneuvers yet, however. The bottom line is that the war in Ukraine is competitive and far from stalemated. Ukrainian forces are out-innovating Russian forces in both military technologies and in applying these new technologies in effective operational concepts that can help Ukrainian forces break out of positional warfare. Ukraine is employing mechanized equipment in tactical maneuvers in ways that were impossible 12 months ago. Russia’s ability to conduct infiltration missions will likely continue to degrade as Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign pushes Russia’s logistics and forward operating bases further away from the frontlines, reducing resourcing to sustain infantry tasked with infiltration missions. Ukraine may be able to scale these effects if they resourced properly by international partners. Ukraine’s advantage in intermediate range strikes is notably not permanent, and Russia will very likely eventually develop countermeasures to mitigate Ukraine’s advantages. Ukraine’s international partners thus have a rare and temporary opportunity to help Ukraine exploit favorable battlefield dynamics while Ukraine has the upper hand. Key Points of the report: • Russia’s rate of advance is plummeting during the Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive. • Russia is losing more soldiers to make fewer gains, with monthly Russian casualty rates reportedly outpacing monthly recruitment since December 2025. • Ukraine is starting to regain more ground than it is losing for the first time since 2023. • Ukraine’ recent counterattacks feature unique characteristics and deviate from key trends that defined the positional character of the war since 2023. • Ukraine is conducting a pattern of more frequent mechanized counterattacks at the tactical level for the first time since 2023. • The Ukrainian command’s operational planning is maturing. • Ukraine’s early 2026 counterattacks in the south were successful likely due to better planning and preparation of the battlefield. • Ukraine has been conducting a coherent campaign to suppress and destroy Russian air defenses since late 2025, in order to shape the battlefield as part of more sophisticated campaign planning. • Ukraine significantly intensified its intermediate-range strike campaign against dynamic targets in Spring 2026 in order to degrade Russian logistics at operational depths ahead of planned Ukrainian maneuver. • Ukrainian forces started actively disrupting Russian railway logistics in occupied Ukraine and Russian western regions in Spring 2026. • Ukrainian intermediate-range strikes are already achieving notable operational effects, including degrading Russia's ability to use the key Russian highway connecting Russia to occupied Crimea and GLOCs around Donetsk City. • Ukrainian forces decisively seized the initiative in intermediate-range strikes by fielding new technologies such as the US-made Hornet strike UAV, among other systems. • Ukrainian forces are achieving temporary tactical drone overmatch in some frontline sectors, which is slowing Russian offensive operations by degrading the effectiveness of Russian shaping operations. • Ukrainian forces likely achieved tactical drone overmatch in certain frontline sectors after degrading Russia’s drone capabilities in late 2025 to early 2026 - primarily by suppressing drone launch positions and increasingly intercepting Russian tactical UAVs. • Ukraine’s degradation of Russian forces at operational depth combined with tactical-level drone overmatch likely is creating vulnerabilities in the Russian lines. • Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign is likely far from its zenith, assuming continued support from Ukraine’s partners, and will likely intensify over 2026 as Ukraine fields new weapons capable of striking Russian’s operational rear. Link to full report: understandingwar.org/researc…

Beste @EersteKamer leden, voormalige collega’s. Wat Gijs Strijker hier zegt klopt 100%. Gijs houdt zich zelfs nog in. De schade die dit onzalige Box 3 voorstel voor ons investeringsklimaat real time aanricht is gigantisch. Stop dit kansloze gedrocht!

Trump, after having a 90 min phone call with Putin, puts out a truth social that he is considering withdrawing all troops from Germany. Something sinister is going on between them. It’s time for “concerned” Republicans to speak out

Good morning, Asia. While you were sleeping, one of our most-read stories reported that dozens of ships have managed to circumvent the blockade since it began — despite Donald Trump declaring it a ‘tremendous success’. ft.trib.al/uIGI0Yn

BREAKING: Iran says it has "forced" the US to accept its "10-point plan" which includes the following terms: 1. Commitment to non-aggression 2. Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz 3. Acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment 4. Lifting of all primary sanctions 5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions 6. Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions 7. Termination of all Board of Governors resolutions 8. Paying compensation to Iran 9. Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region 10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including in Lebanon Trump says this plan is "a workable basis."

💥What we’ve all feared is happening: Hungarian Russia expert András Rácz wrote three days ago about a potential Russia-backed false flag attack in Serbia targeting the gas pipeline to Hungary. The same information had already reached multiple journalists, including myself, weeks earlier, from sources connected to Hungarian government circles. Now Viktor Orbán has announced that Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić informed him about “explosives of devastating power” found at the gas pipeline connecting the two countries. Orbán and his propaganda machine are already amplifying the news everywhere, with the prime minister convening his security cabinet. It remains unclear what measures the government might take using this alleged false flag operation as a pretext. But if the second part of the information we received also proves true, Orbán could declare a state of emergency, significantly affecting the election campaign—which he is currently losing—and potentially disrupting the organization of the April 12 election. The opposition Tisza Party has been widening its lead to 15–20 points, if not more. Orbán accuses them of being "Ukrainian agents" for months. His propaganda would very soon link the Serbian false-flag both to Ukraine and the Tisza Party, I have no doubts about that. I encourage all foreign reporters covering the Hungarian election to pay close attention and not fall for the government’s propaganda or the narratives pushed by its pundits on the Orbán government payroll, including here on X. The situation could soon be very serious.

(Reuters) - At least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity is at a halt following Ukrainian drone attacks, a disputed attack on a major pipeline and the seizure of tankers, according to Reuters calculations based on market data. The shutdown is the most severe oil supply disruption in the modern history of Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, and has hit Moscow just as oil prices exceeded $100 a barrel due to the Iran war. Russia's oil output is one of the main sources of revenue for the national budget and is central to the $2.6 trillion economy. UKRAINE HAS INCREASED ATTACKS Ukraine intensified drone attacks on Russia's oil and fuel export infrastructure this month, hitting all three of Russia's major western oil export ports, including Novorossiysk on the Black Sea and Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea. According to Reuters calculations, about 40% of Russia's crude oil export capabilities - or around 2 million barrels per day, were shut as of Wednesday after the most recent attack. That includes Primorsk and Ust-Luga as well as the Druzhba pipeline, which runs through Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia. Kyiv has also targeted pipeline oil pumping stations and refineries. Kyiv says it aims to diminish Moscow's oil and gas revenue, which accounts for around a quarter of Russia's state budget proceeds, and weaken its military might. Russia says the Ukrainian strikes are terrorist attacks and has tightened security across its 11 time zones.

Dear President @realDonaldTrump this is what the new Dutch Prime Minister @MinPres Jetten wrote about you after you won the elections in November 2024: “Trump, a convicted criminal, becomes president of the US. A misogynist who wants to take away hard-won freedoms, such as abortion. A man who openly flirts with dictators. What lies ahead are years of chaos, division, and recklessness.” Please don’t trust him, the man is a leftish liberal politician and an enemy of the people and he hates your guts. He is now also attacking @PM_ViktorOrban who is a thousand times better leader then Jetten himself.

The Trump Administration is reported to have told the Turkish government that the war with Iran would only be a four-day special military operation. Quite a remarkable bit of reporting: "The United States government had told Turkey through official channels that the war on Iran would only take four days, Asli Aydintasbas, a Washington-based Turkey expert, said during an interview on Sunday. “Turkey and some of its allies were told, through official channels, that this operation would take days and be completed in four days,” Aydintasbas, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, said in an interview with the Serbestiyet news site. “You cannot tell a Nato ally that you have made a four-day plan and then extend the operation to 14 days. In a sense, this was also a betrayal of the regional countries.”