The Choice is Yours and Yours Alone
The tariffs debate is just a symptom of a larger issue. Tariffs aim to reindustrialize America? So why is this important, and what are the options?
Artificial intelligence is changing the game. By 2030, 30%-40% of U.S. service jobs will be gone – lawyers, creatives, analysts.
Why is this important? There is a 50-60% probability of social unrest if unemployment in America hits 15% (compared to 3.9% today).
So, what's the answer? Does America revive its factories or pay its people to survive? Simply put, does America reindustrialize or implement a Universal Basic Income (UBI)?
Factories could absorb 10-15 million workers, preventing this crisis. Here's what it would take:
• Weaken the dollar by 30-40% (like the 1985 Plaza Accord) to make American goods affordable globally
• Accept a 20% drop in living standards – cheaper iPhones - but pricier gas and meds
• Overcome the challenge of getting younger generations in America to work in factories, when 78% prioritize work-life balance
On the other hand, there's UBI – sending monthly checks ($1,000 /adult) funded by taxes on Big Tech/AI profits. Here are the pros and cons:
• 50% chance of stabilizing inequality in America
• Creates inflation risks and a debt doom loop
• Would cost at least USD 3.5 trillion/year, doubling America's deficit
The biggest risk is that UBI becomes a "band-aid" without retraining, creating a lost generation in America.
Neither path is easy – reviving factories demands societal sacrifice, while implementing UBI needs political miracles. But doing nothing? That's a 100% guaranteed crisis.
"The choice is yours, and yours alone." - Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (2005)