BIGGER PICTURE: HORMUZ
Iran’s main leverage is the Strait of Hormuz, with roughly 20% of global oil flows passing through it. By flexing control, the regime is playing its strongest card.
But that move comes with MASSIVE consequences.
Since the Hormuz is weaponized, the world will now accelerate its workarounds:
•Saudi Arabia will most definitely expand its East-West pipeline capacity
•Gulf states will begin invest heavily in alternative export routes
•Israel will emerge as a potential corridor for energy transit
These shifts won’t happen overnight, but they are now inevitable.
What this means:
The more Iran leans on Hormuz, the faster global energy flows reroute around it. Over time, that erodes Tehran’s leverage and cuts into its long-term power.
Bottom line, we will see some short-term pressure as the regime plays its strongest hand. Long term, this is a massive strategic failure of historic scale that will come back to bite them very hard.