History and its meaning:
Iranโs grand strategy in the Middle East rested on two pillars.
The first was the creation and support of proxies, militias, and even regimes across the region - components of the so-called Axis of Resistance. This network served both as a deterrent against Israel and as a counterweight to Sunni Muslim states.
The second pillar was the development of a nuclear program that would position Iran as a threshold stateโpermanently on the verge of acquiring a nuclear weapon, able to sprint toward a bomb at short notice.
In the 11 months since July 2024- and as a direct consequence of October 7- both elements of this strategy have collapsed. Hezbollah has ceased to function as an independent military force. Hassan Nasrallah is dead. Yahya Sinwar and Mohammad Sinwar are dead. The Chief of Staff of the Iranian military has been killed, as has the commander of the Revolutionary Guard. The Assad regime has fallen, and Bashar al-Assad has fled Syria. And now, Iran no longer has a viable nuclear program.
Iran poured billions of dollars into these ambitions, extracted from its oppressed citizens, and now much of that investment has been squandered.
These efforts were never about improving the lives of Iranians. They were always about preserving the Islamic Republic and asserting its ideological commitments. Today, both pillarsโ
- its regional influence and its nuclear ambitionโhave crumbled, vanishing alongside the ruins of the Fordow nuclear facility.