Our latest Australian Financial Review, RedBridge and Accent Research National Poll. The two-party system most Australians grew up with is gone. The real contest, unless something changes by 2028, now runs between Labor and One Nation, and the Coalition is a spectator in the stands….eating donuts. The primary vote tells the story plainly. One Nation 31. Labor 28. The Coalition a deep third on 20. Labor still winning on 2PP. The favourability numbers explain how we got here. This is an electorate sorting itself into camps that barely speak to each other. Albanese is anchored in the Labor base and underwater almost everywhere else. Hanson is the mirror image, locked in with her own bloc and toxic with the other side. Two leaders, each loved and loathed in roughly equal measure, each unable to reach across the line. But the damage is not symmetrical, and that is the part the major parties keep missing. Labor has bled support to the minor parties (others), voters drifting left and sideways. The Coalition has bled something heavier, straight into One Nation, even after the Budget!!!. Look at where Hanson is net positive: Liberal voters, LNP voters, the Coalition’s own right flank. She is not just nibbling at the edges of their base but having nice pizza slice bites at it. More details below.