Joined October 2025
- Tweets 636
- Following 834
- Followers 4,009
- Likes 1,577
26 Photos and videos
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2 Dec 2025
Fun article by Will at The Oracle @polymarketinfo from the @Polymarket folks on some of the factors that influence my predictions. When interviewed I was beat up and mentally scattered from watching news and so on but he made a solid article out of it. news.polymarket.com/p/risk-o…
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Jun 10
The Graham Platner prediction was fortuitous and resulted in a 2X in a few months. Double up for the general election or call it a day? Leaning towards keeping it on him for the general election as he seems resilient!
I just won $88,817.04 on @Polymarket!
Join me and put your money where your mouth is: polymarket.com/redeem/eyJwcm…
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Jun 10
Here's a great article by Will at the Polymarket Oracle re. the Maine Senate race going forward news.polymarket.com/p/maine-…
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Jun 3
Let's surf yo... Riding waves in California's election.... Taking some profits and diversifying risk... Profitably sold 20% of my massive 300k NO ON SPENCER PRATT for Los Angeles mayor position in the .86-.88 range last night to buy some NO on Tom Steyer for Governor around .89-.90. The Steyer bet is riskier because if he sticks around the position will lose $ on paper. But I don't think he makes it to the general election, while Pratt does but loses handily to Bass. Hopefully I get paid early on that switcharoo portion!
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Jun 1
This is interesting re Graham Platner current controversy, looks like maybe Collins is not a saint either. Should candidate personal dating and marriage lives be a part of what’s scrutinized by voters? In countries outside of the USA that subject is still often respected as private. Thoughts?
Jun 1
Susan Collins should be careful about throwing stones from glass houses when it comes to issues of infidelity. It’s been an open secret in Washington DC for decades but the WSJ & NY Times have never probed into it. Wonder why?
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May 31
This below is so on point. Just bought more Graham Platner (after selling some earlier in the .98s) in the .92-.96 range. Also, it's old news. Mills gonna restart her campaign to try to overcome the 20 point Platner advantage? I don't think so. (not financial advice, do your DD)
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May 21
Never thought of prediction in these terms but pretty cool!
May 20
他人に腹を立てる正体は、脳科学でいう「予測誤差」へのパニックなんですよね。
短気な人は、無意識に「世界は自分の思い通りに動くはず」という硬直した前提を持っているため、予測が外れた瞬間に脳がエラーを起こし、その無力さへのイラ立ちを「相手への怒り」にすり替えて暴れています。つまり、予想を外した自分にキレている状態です。
一方で、本当に心の余裕がある人は「他人が思い通りに動かないこと」なんて最初から織り込み済み。
だから想定外の理不尽が飛んできても、まともに衝突しません。脱力した状態で、まるでウェイブ坂口のごとく「ヒョイッ」と最小限の動きで受け流してしまう。
怒りを撒き散らすのは、自分の予測精度の低さとディフェンス力のなさを露呈しているようなもの。「おっと、予測誤差が出たな」と自分の前提条件をその場でアップデートできる身軽さこそが大事だと思います。
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May 19
Here is a fun little roundtable we did at the conference a few weeks back that might interest people who want to set up funds or other vehicles like vaults to manage money in prediction markets. Guys from SuperStrat and River Markets are great minds! youtube.com/watch?v=NsnVnqRR…
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May 4
Panel with @Domahhhh and Scottilicious from the Prediction Markets Conference below, with edits. Moderator Jacob Kozhipatt from Market Machines was great we would have had more of him in video were it not for a sound issue.youtube.com/watch?v=G3wxPnJx…
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Apr 30
As @wasabiboat points out, our team woke up to a pleasant surprise 100% return this morning. We originally purchased Graham Platner, in good size, around $.50 based on his charisma, broad appeal, and the weakness of his opponent who today announced she was suspending her campaign!
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Apr 28
So we did a little street side research in downtown Las Vegas when we were at the Prediction Markets Conference. Can you tell who attended and who didn't? lol More serious panel with Domer will be posted tomorrow but for now let's have fun!
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Apr 24
We just walzed into the most interesting conference in Las Vegas as special guests at @predictionconlv ... @ishmilly is a great organizer, so far we met some cool peeps and shared an expert panel with the one and only @Domahhhh. We'll post that later but for now here's a fun intro:
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Apr 10
We interviewed people familiar with the situation in Iran. Apparently the regime hires mercenaries from other countries to do their gruesome dirty work. Some clips: youtu.be/pnWfxHDMs3o. We aren't bullish on a quick regime change or the ability of outside powers to foment it.
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Apr 7
Hello! Anyone out there with political knowledge predicting the Presidential election in Peru on the 12th? You can share with our community on here or alternatively DM me and set up a consulting arrangement or tips from us. No chatgpt AI slop, only serious humans! Let's make $
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Apr 4
This was a really cool learning process for us! Here is some insight into what influenced our decisions on the giveaway: We figured out that we prefer predictions where you don't have to be constantly in front of the computer. We have to stay informed, but we don't want to be counting too much on luck or price fluctuations. Our time is better spent on research. We appear to have an edge in geopolitics, so we prioritized those ideas vs things like sports or KitKats although we appreciated those reccos and may look into them further. Time sensitive is always great, and we entered at least three positons fairly quickly! Thanks again to all for your participation!
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Apr 4
Happy Saturday. Here are the results from our contest: 1st Place $500 is split three ways $167 each between @notoscarod , @QuotientHQ , and @Dapsyxbt because they each gave a different version of a really great pick; no ceasefire. 2nd place $300 goes to @AigarShilvan for the solid take on Starmer. 3rd place $200 goes to @XxX_Niki_24_XxX for a rapid and timely take on NATO. We're also hooking up a "community contribution prize" of $100 each to @A0plus69 and @hardinpol for their nuanced ideas and many contributions. Please send your polymarket profile or wallet address and we'll disburse! Let us know in comments if we should do this once a month!
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Apr 1
We have A LOT of cash to put to work. Made over 200k this month across various accounts! Usually I give out free Alpha on discord and X. But today we're gonna try something different. We want your Alpha! I'm gonna give away $1,000 for whoever comes up with the best ideas for new predictions on Polymarket. The rules: $500 for first place, $300 for second place, and $200 for third place. There must be liquidity and return must be equivalent to at least 1% a week 4% in a month or 48% in a year. Scottilicious team will judge, and you get paid in USDC. There must be at least $10,000 of liquidity available at a price within 3% of the prediction you're sending. Don't send me stuff where there are 50 shares available lol. We prefer politics but will look at anything with a sound argument. Must not be an existing Scottilicious position, and since we now have like 40 bots trailing Scottie, note that my team may act on the reccos befor announcing results. So maybe buy your own position first. Let's all make money!
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Apr 1
Got some good submissions so far, with two that we've already acted on. Winners will be announced Saturday. Decided on 48 hours open for submissions on a whim. Lmk in comments if this feels like too short or too long a window... Maybe we do one of these once a month who knows?
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Also , because it must be said, this is not an April Fool's joke. We will pay out.
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