Formerly HFT QT. Used to write at semaji.substack.com. Quant trading, prediction markets, crypto.
Joined November 2021
- Tweets 961
- Following 662
- Followers 2,266
- Likes 1,244
26 Photos and videos
Jun 12
A lot of smug remarks here about "market makers should be neutral". This is an antiquated point. When market makers don't have an opinion they stay flat, but often they do have an opinion and almost always they have exposures. One counterparty can tell you everything about a bet.
Susquehanna International Group’s prediction market desk took its biggest sports loss making markets during the Knicks’ Game 4 NBA Finals comeback Wednesday, while Kalshi reported a record day for volume.
Susquehanna’s losses, a source familiar with the situation says, were almost entirely on the game-winner market.
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Jun 12
The last 5 seconds or so of that game was probably up there with the most excruciating moments of their lives for some of the guys on the desk, particularly if they had been responsible for taking more size at the bottom than they had necessarily planned. Do feel some sympathy.
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May 22
Absolute cunt, you dox someone and then say you will "introduce" yourself and we get "a dude from an Eastern European country". Cannot even bring yourself to name the country. Happy to dox others but wouldn't dream of doxxing yourself, even though you are irrelevant.
May 22
2/ Disclaimer.
If I'm exposing someone, it's only fair to introduce myself first.
Especially since @zachxbt tends to dismiss critics by where they're from.
I'm just a dude from a small Eastern European country. This is my first post on X -
I've only ever been a reader here, including following Zach for over a year.
For the last 6 months Zach changed. The paranoia, acting like he's a god,
a lot of strange things. That's what got me here.
I've never been affiliated with anyone.
I just honestly gamble my money on futures.
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May 22
The only relevant part of the post was the on-chain activities. Why exactly it required 5 tweets about Zach's personal life solely for purposes of confirming the dox was never addressed. The dox, of course, is the point: make Zach's identity nice and public. Vermin.
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May 17
If one is being honest, there have been zero interesting prediction market primitives introduced over the last 8 months. Not one. People have tried things ranging from cross-margining to leverage to borrowing against positions but then and now, none are resilient vs gap risk.
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May 17
"Actually, we're building-" respectfully, what were your daily users in Sept 2025 vs May 2026?
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May 17
Without commenting on the post itself at all, it's just hilarious that the founder of DraftKings, who is now bagging on Kalshi, has a surname that is itself an anagram of Kalshi. Just hard to take him seriously on this when he's one letter movement away from being Matt Kalshi.
May 17
Idk what people are smoking, there’s not a single exchange product experience for normal people that is remotely close to the delivering the caliber of experience that regulated sportsbooks do. They are 2-3 years of development away (before regulatory touches the product at all)
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May 16
independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho…
An interesting article, less in the details than in the abstract lesson. The player was banned from the Hippodrome for constant hit and runs (leaving as soon as you win a little). This is technically allowed, but considered the lowest of poker etiquette.
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May 16
For the average account, they will never interact with this condition, but their experience would be drastically enhanced, as makers could show 5x the liquidity and tighter spreads (ofc this would lead to perverse incentives where the taker multi-accounts, but the point stands).
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May 16
Many market-esque configurations can be significantly enhanced for the average participant if everyone must justify their actions on a social basis. The speedbump was Hyperliquid's equivalent of nerfing short-stacking. The takers got smoked. But parasites live by the sword...
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