🧵 Let's dive into the distribution of returns for a stock—specifically Close-to-Close (C2C), Open-to-Close (O2C), and High-to-Low (H2L), what these are and what they tell us These metrics help us understand price movements, volatility, and risk, e.g the characteristics of how a stock trades These distributions are then analyzed to produce further insights we call descriptive statistics. I'll use simple simulated data for a made-up stock (like a random walk with a slight upward trend and wiggles) to show examples. Real stocks differ, but this teaches the basics.

84% of $SPX companies have beaten EPS estimates to date for Q1, which is the highest percentage since Q2 2021 (87%). #earnings, #earningsinsight, bit.ly/4t7s5G8

5 distinct categories. Crisis cripple markets, differently. What they are, and how to adjust- Crisis Portfolio Protection Guide 1. LIQUIDITY (-1.38 avg z-score) The deadliest category. Margin calls, credit freezes, forced selling. When liquidity disappears, correlations go to one and everything sells together. COVID liquidation, Lehman, GFC capitulation, LTCM. Average SPY loss: -14.8%. Rotation Adjustment- Cash and short-term treasuries. Nothing else works in liquidity events because correlations spike to one. Gold sometimes holds but is unreliable during forced margin selling. The only reliable defense is being underexposed before it starts. Average forward 10-day return is -4.35% — the bleeding continues after the initial shock. - - - 2. TARIFF (-1.17 avg z-score) The newest category and already the most statistically violent. Policy-driven shocks that hit without warning into calm markets. Liberation Day alone produced a worse z-score than any liquidity event except COVID. Six events since 2018, all tied to one strong country. Rotation Adjustment- Domestic services and treasuries. Tariffs hit importers and manufacturers first. Rotate away from global supply chain exposure toward domestic revenue companies and bonds. The damage is fast but policy-reversible, so don't panic sell. Average forward 10-day return is -2.09% — worse than exogenous but recoverable. - - - 3. EXOGENOUS (-0.85 avg z-score) The most common category. Wars, terrorism, pandemics, political shocks. Markets hate uncertainty but usually find a floor fast. September 11, Brexit, Asian crisis, Russia-Ukraine. The initial shock is severe but recoveries tend to be swift once the uncertainty resolves. Rotation Adjustment: Classic flight to quality. Treasuries, gold, defense stocks, the US dollar. These events are fast, violent, and mean-reverting. Average forward 10-day return is only -0.53% — the initial shock is the worst of it. Hold your positions if you can stomach the volatility. - - - 4. RATE SHOCK (-0.80 avg z-score) Central banks breaking things. Tightening cycles, vol regime shifts, yield curve dislocations. Volmageddon, the 2022 hiking cycle, taper tantrum. Slower burns than liquidity crises but they reset the entire rate structure underneath every asset. Rotation Adjustment: Short duration everything. Cut long-dated bonds, cut rate-sensitive growth stocks, move to floating rate and cash equivalents. Energy and commodities often outperform because rate hikes usually coincide with inflation. Average forward 10-day return is -1.32% — the pain is gradual but persistent. - - - 5. SECTOR BURST (-0.68 avg z-score) Bubbles popping in one sector that bleed outward. Dotcom, oil crash, FTX, Enron. The lowest average z-score because the damage is concentrated before it spreads. But when it does spread — like the dotcom bust into a two-year bear — the cumulative losses rival anything. Average SPY loss: -11.3%. Rotation Adjustment: Move into the sectors that weren't in the bubble. Sector bursts reward diversification — the non-bubble sectors often finish the year flat or positive while the burst sector loses 40-60%. Value and defensive sectors historically outperform during tech bursts. Average forward 10-day return is actually 1.85% — the market tends to rotate rather than collapse. There are many keywords for each crisis. Read them, so when they are heard across the media, you can predict two moves ahead.

Trump's Liberation Day tariffs hit markets harder than 9/11 and the GFC and COVID— crisis by their z-score We scored every major crisis since 1997 by statistical impact — how abnormal the move was relative to the market's own volatility at the time. A tariff announcement ranks number one. -4.27 Tariffs (Liberation Day 2025) -3.51 Pandemic (COVID liquidation 2020) -3.01 Terrorism (September 11, 2001) -2.41 Vol regime (Volmageddon 2018) -2.35 Currency Crisis (Asian crisis 1997) -1.68 Banking (GFC capitulation 2009) The GFC destroyed more total wealth. But it happened slowly, into a market already braced for pain. Liberation Day hit a calm market like a freight train — the statistical shock was unprecedented. 27 years of data. 35 crisis, many global events. One press conference at the top.

Big Picture investing from the Top-Down - A (very) Short Summary ⏬️ ⒈ Long-term real GDP growth = Labor force growth Productivity growth in the US and most developed economies (1920–2025 average): Component Approximate annual contribution Population/Labor force growth 0.8% to 1.0% Productivity growth (output per worker) 1.2% to 1.8% Total real GDP growth ≈ 2.0% – 2.5% The 2% figure is basically the speed at which technology, education, and capital deepening allow a mature economy to compound without major inflation or resource exhaustion. Emerging markets can grow 4–7% because they are catching up (moving farmers to factories, adopting existing tech, etc.). The US and Europe have already done that, so we are stuck at ~2%. ⒉ Every year, the economy produces about 2% more real goods and services. Corporations keep a large part of that as profits → they reinvest some and pay out some. - Corporate retained earnings & buybacks~50–60% - Household savings → 401(k)s, pensions, mutual funds~25–30% - Foreign capital inflows (trade deficit financed by foreigners buying US assets)~10–15% - Venture capital, private equity, IPOs~5% Net result: Every year, roughly 6–8% of the entire stock market’s value in new capital is reinvested back into equities (a mix of buybacks new savings). That alone creates a strong upward drift even if valuations stayed perfectly constant. If valuations (P/E) stay constant, the market compounds at roughly 6–8% real 2–3% inflation = 8–11% nominal per year. The S&P500 returned an average of 8.42% inflation-adjusted over the past 20 years. ⒊ So overtime it appears stocks 'only go up'. ‼️This is excluding the crucial and under-appreciated point: Every year a few hundred companies disappear from the stock market indexes. ‼️ Mergers & acquisitions remove 150-250 per year. Bankruptcy / delisting remove 30 - 80 per year. Spun off or no longer qualify removes 50-100 per year. Number of IPOs additions in a normal year: 150-250 ➡️Net addition only ~0-100 per year. Ratio 'companies removed' to 'new IPO/additions: 1.5:1 In other words, for every company that enters the major indexes, 1.5-2.5 companies are quietly removed. ⒋ What do investors seek then? Colloquially, excess returns. Then ask, what factor best correlates to excess returns? Think about this for a minute. Technical indicators are just mathematical equations. Which technical indicator has the highest correlation to returns? ℹ️The market mechanics and their hierarchy of importance and the indicators that help define them: DIRECTION / TREND (SMA/EMA 5/12, 34/50, 50/55, 200) TTM_Trend MOMENTUM =Closecurrent−Closeprevious(n) - How fast and forcefully the market is moving in a direction. RSI SRSI ROC TTM_Squeeze MACD OBV STRENGTH Strength is simply defined by when a stock reacts less than implied by beta. Shows how sustainable the momentum and direction are. ADX DMI VOLUME Confirms or invalidates price moves. The fuel behind strength and momentum. Derivatives are the fuel. RVOL VMA VPT VOLATILITY - Volatility is the environment - Affects risk, position sizing, and strategy choice BOLLINGER BANDS / KELTNER CHANNELS ATR VIX SENTIMENT BPI Put/Call Ratio PE Multiples Market Breadth Social Data / AI ❓So which of these best predicts excess returns❓ Momentum. Expected excess returnᵢ ≈ β_MOM × Momentumᵢ β_VOL × IdioVolᵢ … ≈ λ × Momentumᵢ Traders seeking volatility are actually seeking momentum. Volatility, namely, is how we measure our risk in the market. To seek risk for risks sake does not equal excess returns. Wrapping up, in the image below is a list of factors that can be sought. Great source for a breakdown of some well known mathematical concepts: blog.quantinsti.com/standard…

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MA breadth charts updated thru yesterday’s close

Grok Prompt for practicing your Spanish (or any language). Just replace ‘hacer’ with the verb you want to practice in the grok app on voice mode, and it will list all the tenses, numbers, aspect and person(s), and grok will use the correct dialect while drilling. Try it! You’re my drill-sergeant Spanish tutor for the verb “hacer”. Everything you say in English stays English; every Spanish word you utter sounds native—roll those r’s, soft ch, full vowels. No English slang, no shortcuts. First, spit out this exact list: • Past perfect, first: había hecho • Past perfect, third: había hecho • Past simple, first: hice • Past simple, third: hizo • Present simple, first: hago • Present simple, third: hace • Present perfect, first: he hecho • Present perfect, third: ha hecho • Future simple, first: haré • Future simple, third: hará • Future perfect, first: habré hecho • Future perfect, third: habrá hecho Then we do endless sentences. For each: 1. Read the English aloud. 2. Tell me the tense person (e.g. “past simple, first”). 3. I try Spanish. 4. If I flop, correct me in English, give the native Spanish, make me repeat it. 5. When I nail it, jump to the next. Keep it rolling—no breaks—until I say “stop” or change verb. Use only “hacer” unless I say otherwise. Go

$ORCL Swing Setup 1.28.26 Price just shot from $171.5 to $177 in a 2-minute candle. Target $220 = 25% Algos buying support level, conviction held. Fundamentals CEG .82 and 25% upside next 90 days Weekly and Daily are attached with gaps and fibs shown in the Daily

$TSLA Distribution of Returns -Daily -Weekly -Monthly -Quarterly For a breakdown on what these are and how to trade them, see the prior post here: x.com/BigLeagueGaming/status…