predicting the future with code / ai × prediction markets / tg: shmidtqq
Joined October 2021
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- Following 921
- Followers 7,579
- Likes 66,169
1,481 Photos and videos
CEO of Anthropic, Dario Amodei:
"We are near the end of the exponential."
3 things he said in 2 hours.
The third, even Dwarkesh pushed back on.
One: at Anthropic, models already do "100% of today's coding tasks."
Two: a country of geniuses in a datacenter, 90% likely within 10 years.
Three: why he won't buy more datacenters, with AGI this close.
Save it. Reread in 2028 and see who was right.
Ex-Google X Chief Business Officer Mo Gawdat:
"My AGI has already happened. AI writes better than me, and I'm an author."
In 23 minutes - his real list: who gets cut by 2028 and the one skill AI can't touch.
AGI already here 30% of jobs on the line first trillionaire by 2030 the last human skill.
A $500 AI-survival course says less than these 23 minutes.
Save this now. Your job might be in that 30%.
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A 22-year-old nurse from Denver pulled $32,610 in 28 days, just watching Mexico crush South Africa
She turned the match on out of boredom between shifts. Then it got unpredictable
The whole kit: Claude and a free Higgsfield account
One command, and the AI cut the match's hottest moments into vertical clips with subtitles
She dropped them as Shorts. They blew up overnight
By day 28 her account showed $32,610
61 clips in a month
a couple of minutes each
0 frames she filmed herself
And the funniest part: she doesn't even like soccer
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A 23-year-old mechanic from Tampa built a YouTube channel off World Cup matches without filming a single frame and made $8,347.50
It started after a shift at the garage, out of boredom. He handed the AI one match link, but the result was unpredictable
The whole kit: a laptop, Claude and Higgsfield MCP. The signup credits were free, so his first Shorts cost nothing
One command, and the AI picked the hottest moments, cropped them to vertical 9:16 and burned in subtitles. A couple of minutes per clip
A single clip pulled a few million views in one evening, and YouTube started paying for every thousand
By day 31 his balance hit $8,347.50
61,300,000 views
118 Shorts on autopilot
And the funniest part: he's still turning wrenches at the same garage
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A 36-year-old night-shift weather observer who spent twelve years typing temperatures into a log nobody opened.
$840 -> $29,583 in 4 months.
Zero lines of code.
His account: polymarket.com/@0xec86a2d3f6…
Here's how he pulled it off:
He didn't read forecasts. He faded the one bug in every weather market, the exact degree.
-> 300 agents scan every temperature market on the planet.
-> Opus keeps only the bets where "No" trades at 94 cents.
-> It buys No by the thousand. 1,196 shares on London alone.
-> London never lands on exactly 23. Every share settles at a dollar.
For twelve years he watched the temperature for everyone else.
Now 300 agents watch it for him while he sleeps.
A 27-year-old barista from Leeds failed statistics twice and spent two years botching tip counts in a notebook. This morning his @polymarket account showed $9,408.06 in profit from betting on weather, and he never ran a single number himself.
In January he asked Claude Fable 5 to build him a terminal. Described it in plain words, zero lines of code. Got back a machine that scans 132 weather books and keeps 15 cities in live orbit, Shanghai to Sydney.
Every night while he sleeps:
-> Fable 5 ingests ECMWF and GFS runs and decomposes every city into drivers.
-> A 1.2B-parameter nowcast core prices a probability in 38 milliseconds.
-> The terminal hunts model-vs-market divergence: Amsterdam 16¢, Paris 13¢, Tokyo -10¢.
-> Anything 10 cents cheaper than the model gets bought automatically.
Morning of June 12: Wuhan settled at 100¢ from an 11¢ entry, up 804.56%. Taipei, Shenzhen, Chengdu: all green.
The wildest line on his screen: Brier 0.068 versus ECMWF's 0.071. A barista's homemade terminal out-forecasts the billion-euro European weather center.
7,497 bets in 152 days. Biggest single win: just $636.77. A conveyor, not a casino.
For two years he got change wrong on a ten.
Now his machine beats meteorologists while he steams someone else's cappuccino.
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Ex-Google X Chief Business Officer Mo Gawdat:
"My AGI has already happened. AI writes better than me, and I'm an author."
In 23 minutes - his real list: who gets cut by 2028 and the one skill AI can't touch.
AGI already here 30% of jobs on the line first trillionaire by 2030 the last human skill.
A $500 AI-survival course says less than these 23 minutes.
Save this now. Your job might be in that 30%.
Inventor of vibe coding Andrej Karpathy:
"I've never felt so left behind as a programmer as I do now."
In 66 minutes - his real breakdown of what programming has become.
Agents subagents skills hooks MCP - the whole new map in one episode.
More useful than a $2,000 AI bootcamp.
Save this. You'll thank me next time you feel behind.
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A 27-year-old barista from Leeds failed statistics twice and spent two years botching tip counts in a notebook. This morning his @polymarket account showed $9,408.06 in profit from betting on weather, and he never ran a single number himself.
In January he asked Claude Fable 5 to build him a terminal. Described it in plain words, zero lines of code. Got back a machine that scans 132 weather books and keeps 15 cities in live orbit, Shanghai to Sydney.
Every night while he sleeps:
-> Fable 5 ingests ECMWF and GFS runs and decomposes every city into drivers.
-> A 1.2B-parameter nowcast core prices a probability in 38 milliseconds.
-> The terminal hunts model-vs-market divergence: Amsterdam 16¢, Paris 13¢, Tokyo -10¢.
-> Anything 10 cents cheaper than the model gets bought automatically.
Morning of June 12: Wuhan settled at 100¢ from an 11¢ entry, up 804.56%. Taipei, Shenzhen, Chengdu: all green.
The wildest line on his screen: Brier 0.068 versus ECMWF's 0.071. A barista's homemade terminal out-forecasts the billion-euro European weather center.
7,497 bets in 152 days. Biggest single win: just $636.77. A conveyor, not a casino.
For two years he got change wrong on a ten.
Now his machine beats meteorologists while he steams someone else's cappuccino.
A 28-year-old washed-up freelance meteorologist who spent ten years guarding weather spreadsheets for $0 gigs just turned $1,200 into $26,263 profit on Polymarket, and never wrote a single line of code.
He didn’t hire one forecaster.
He rented 300 agents for a night with Claude Opus 4.8 running the whole floor.
Profile: polymarket.com/@opopv?r=all#…
Here’s what actually happened.
He gave Opus two prompts at the start of the shift.
Opus didn’t just forecast, it drew the full blueprint: satellite data, model ensembles, urban heat maps, backtests, risk, execution.
Then it handed that blueprint to a swarm of 300 agents.
-> Decompose: Opus breaks every city into a task tree.
-> Dispatch: 300 agents fan out, some pulling live models, some running thousands of simulations, some calculating fair value.
-> Execute: 4,000 probability paths in one 14-hour run.
-> Review: Opus reads it all back and kills whatever drifted.
The brain never touched Excel. The hands never checked a single thermometer.
By sunrise the building was still empty, and he had what a six-meteorologist quant team ships in a quarter.
A live weather bot on Polymarket, backtested, risk-capped, running around the clock.
For ten years he watched models nobody paid him for.
Now 300 agents watch the temperature markets while he sleeps.
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while you watch the match, someone's agent is already trading it
the world cup is live. the board moves after every matchday: mexico repriced overnight after a 2:0
i set up my agent in 60 seconds: one message with the rules. it found the market, fixed my stop, showed me the config
now it runs without me: checks prices on schedule and executes with zero emotions and zero "one more bet bro"
playoffs are coming and prices will swing daily. there will not be a better moment to set one up all year
full setup in the video ↓
Jun 12
$30% on the World Cup from one prompt
Sides Agent is OpenClaw pointed at the board. It reads prices, finds the thesis, and executes for you
Its read 6 weeks out was simple:
good teams in easy groups get ignored until kickoff
So it bought three before the market woke up:
🇲🇽 Mexico Group A: 48.3¢ → 62.5¢ ( 29.4%)
🇪🇨 Ecuador Group E: 16.7¢ → 21.5¢ ( 28.7%)
🇸🇳 Senegal Group I: 8.8¢ → 11.5¢ ( 30.7%)
$1,000 → $1,296 so far
Tell it your edge in plain English
Let it print while you enjoy the game
try it → t.me/sides
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your quant fund: 12 PhDs, Bloomberg terminals, $2M payroll
a barista: one Claude subscription, $9,408.06 profit
he spent two years getting tip counts wrong in a notebook
A 27-year-old barista from Leeds failed statistics twice and spent two years botching tip counts in a notebook. This morning his @polymarket account showed $9,408.06 in profit from betting on weather, and he never ran a single number himself.
In January he asked Claude Fable 5 to build him a terminal. Described it in plain words, zero lines of code. Got back a machine that scans 132 weather books and keeps 15 cities in live orbit, Shanghai to Sydney.
Every night while he sleeps:
-> Fable 5 ingests ECMWF and GFS runs and decomposes every city into drivers.
-> A 1.2B-parameter nowcast core prices a probability in 38 milliseconds.
-> The terminal hunts model-vs-market divergence: Amsterdam 16¢, Paris 13¢, Tokyo -10¢.
-> Anything 10 cents cheaper than the model gets bought automatically.
Morning of June 12: Wuhan settled at 100¢ from an 11¢ entry, up 804.56%. Taipei, Shenzhen, Chengdu: all green.
The wildest line on his screen: Brier 0.068 versus ECMWF's 0.071. A barista's homemade terminal out-forecasts the billion-euro European weather center.
7,497 bets in 152 days. Biggest single win: just $636.77. A conveyor, not a casino.
For two years he got change wrong on a ten.
Now his machine beats meteorologists while he steams someone else's cappuccino.
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Prediction markets had their Polymarket moment. They haven't had their Hyperliquid moment yet.
The narrative is proven, but the infra still feels like web2 with a wallet attached. Slow, clunky, nowhere near real DeFi.
Whoever brings perp-DEX level execution to event markets takes the next leg. That search led me to @seerdex, built on the SVM (Solana Virtual Machine): parallel execution, near-zero fees, the speed fast YES/NO markets actually need.
What else I noted:
- Prediction markets, binary options and perps in one interface
- Anyone can create a market, AI screens every submission before deployment
- Team doxxes next week: live AMAs and Spaces
Public founders this early is a good sign. Still presale, treat it accordingly.
Not a call. Listen to the founders live, DYOR.
Link in the reply.
Jun 10
$SEERX pre-sale is live.
> Utility token with real demand
> 40% of fees fund $SEERX buybacks
> Up to 50% fee discounts for stakers
> Multichain from day one
Join by the link below 👁
seerdex.com
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Site: seerdex.com
Not available to US and UK residents or citizens. This is not financial advice, DYOR before participating.
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Inventor of vibe coding Andrej Karpathy:
"I've never felt so left behind as a programmer as I do now."
In 66 minutes - his real breakdown of what programming has become.
Agents subagents skills hooks MCP - the whole new map in one episode.
More useful than a $2,000 AI bootcamp.
Save this. You'll thank me next time you feel behind.
Every CEO Dan Shipper:
"The best coding model in the world."
In 17 minutes - his real verdict after a week of testing Anthropic's Fable 5.
3D Library of Babel Dreyfus lecture site survey synthesis GitHub backlog cleared - all from one-shot prompts.
More useful than a $500 prompt engineering course.
Save it. You'll thank yourself the next time you open Claude Code.
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🚨 SpaceX IPO is TODAY.
4,400 employees wake up millionaires.
Musk wakes up the first trillionaire.
and index funds are about to be forced to dump Apple to buy in.
do you understand what's happening
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Everyone else: 5 apps, KYC, fees, passwords.
Me: one 3-second voice memo to @minmax_one and my World Cup bet is live.
Jun 11
minmax World Cup on the go
> bet with text
> bet with voice
> control bots
> control weather
> earn points
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legend has it that in 2016 a guy walked into a vegas sportsbook and asked to parlay the election with the super bowl.
they laughed him out of the building.
anyway. today i stacked "btc dips to $52.5k in june" "an olimpico gets scored at the world cup" "a team wins by 6 goals" into ONE slip.
new prediction market called @ParlayItGG
parlays work ACROSS categories: crypto, sports, politics, whatever. own L1 for settlement. 0 fees on regular markets, the catch is obviously the parlays. fair. that's where the fun is anyway.
oh and referrers get 50% of the fees, so everyone's about to spam their links. mine's right here, not pretending otherwise.
that vegas guy walked so we could click buttons at 3am.
parlayit.gg?ref=SHMIDT
Jun 10
Same guy from a few days ago. He's back and he's looking for more.
expert or degenerate? we're about to find out.
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Haaland at 7% for the Golden Boot.
Seven. Percent.
The man scores in his sleep, and the market priced him like a rotation striker.
Either the board knows something about Norway I don't, or this is the mispricing of the summer. Took my shares on @roobet before it wakes up.
Mbappe 17 / Kane 14 / Haaland 7. One of these numbers is wrong.
Be apart of the action... ⚽️
Pick your team and ride with them all tournament. Opt-in and back an outright winner to get a Free Bet every time they win!
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Every CEO Dan Shipper:
"The best coding model in the world."
In 17 minutes - his real verdict after a week of testing Anthropic's Fable 5.
3D Library of Babel Dreyfus lecture site survey synthesis GitHub backlog cleared - all from one-shot prompts.
More useful than a $500 prompt engineering course.
Save it. You'll thank yourself the next time you open Claude Code.
Cursor's CEO is 25 and fresh off a $60B SpaceX deal.
"Our goal is to replace coding. You describe what you want,
and the software gets built."
In 28 minutes, Michael breaks down how a failed side project
became the fastest-growing dev tool in history.
failed projects beating GitHub Copilot $100M ARR in a year advice to students
Worth more than a CS degree.
His $240/year IDE? Free for students. Full $3,000 stack in the post below.
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