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Joined December 2012
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1/ A thread on Sidecar Investing, or “free riding on the superior capability of others” -Richard Zeckhauser
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The ideal combination is a genius running a great business.
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Antonio is emerging as the Arthur Rock of this era Rock was a founding investor in Intel (along with many other legendary companies) but most impressively he had an active role there for 30 years @AntonioGracias sets the standard for my generation

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“Not one in a thousand seriously plans and acts as one must to make a fortune.” Thomas Phelps Investors dream of getting rich. They say the right things about being selective, disciplined and having patience. But their portfolios, and more importantly, their behavior, tell a different story. There is an inconvenient truth: most investors don’t earn big returns because they are not trying to. The problem isn’t intelligence or access to information. It is the gap between what people say and what they do. Most investors seek comfort and social validation. They over-diversify, check stock prices daily or even hourly, and panic when markets fluctuate. To earn outsized returns, you need a strategy that can capture extreme outliers. Investing confidently is a prerequisite. It means having the stomach to hold when a stock declines and 50% drawdowns are not unusual for even great companies. It requires tuning out the noise and accepting large swings in your net worth. It means accepting that you are going to look stupid. And accepting that at times, you are even going to feel stupid. Most investors want the gains but not the discomfort that makes them possible. So they own a little bit of a lot of things and trade too often. This feels rational because they are “doing something” which is usually just oversteering their portfolio or trying to fit into a market environment that is most likely temporary. If you truly want extraordinary results, you must pay the tuition which comes in the form of embracing volatility and accepting social isolation. The first step toward making life-changing money in stocks? Start acting like someone who makes life-changing money in stocks.
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This week Artem Fokin of Caro-Kann Capital wrote a great article on a very complex topic. Management Meetings: Access without Attachment microcapclub.com/management-…
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Identifying exceptional CEOs doesn't require private investigators, channel checks, or expert network calls. People tell you who they are. Listen to what they say, look at what they've accomplished, and trust your intuition.
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The largest shift over my investment career has been the market’s ability to sniff out good business models. Today, you have to be earlier than ever. By the time the strength of the business shows up in the numbers, the big gains have already been made.
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I didn’t stick to my resolution to stay positive. Back CEOs who are straight-shooters. They often surprise on the upside.
Maybe it's 20 years of investing, pattern recognition, or just getting older, but I've lost all patience for fancy language and philosopher quotes. When CEOs or investors try too hard to sound smart, it's a bright red flag.
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Maybe it's 20 years of investing, pattern recognition, or just getting older, but I've lost all patience for fancy language and philosopher quotes. When CEOs or investors try too hard to sound smart, it's a bright red flag.
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Investing is an attention game and the more time a position consumes, the less likely you are to find your next great idea.
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Ken Langone backed a fired 49-year-old without even knowing his business idea that bet returned 621,000% - outperforming Apple by 15 times the company was Home Depot - the #1 performing stock in S&P 500 history - 27% a year for 40 years "is he going to jail? no? good - you can't run a company from jail - we're starting a company" 3,000 kids who started pushing carts in the parking lot are multi-millionaires today a part-time cashier from Jamaica now runs all 1,700 US stores bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓
Jamie Dimon called Elon Musk "the Edison of our time" - then his mother stood up in front of 3,500 investors and said: "when he was 3 I told people I have a genius son - they rolled their eyes - then he wanted to build rockets - I rolled my eyes - and then he did it" Elon: "there is not a single high volume computer memory fab in America right now - zero" 650 rockets launched - 10,000 satellites in orbit - Starlink V3 will deliver 100x more bandwidth - it can only be launched on Starship - no other rocket on Earth is big enough watch the full conversation ↓
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Investing experience brings clarity to what you are looking for. Eventually, opportunities resonate almost immediately or never. And not knowing where the next idea will come from can be maddening, while looking too hard leads to unforced errors. Waiting for them to find you is best.
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“The best founders don’t signal like everyone else, they don’t think like everyone else, and they certainly don’t build like everyone else.”
After 15 years of investing, we realised that truly exceptional founders have something impossible to fake: deeply unconventional lives. We analysed 15,000 founders using five binary signals to measure this: odd hobbies, early signs of exceptionalism, extreme life choices, unusual geographies, non-linear careers. These sum to give a 0-5 score per founder. Whether someone started coding at 10, speaks five languages, climbed Everest or quit a safe job to live in Chile, the signal was deviation from the mean. Rather than focusing on IQ or EQ, we call this metric the Outlier Quotient, or “OQ”. When forecasting founder success, it turns out that OQ was the single most predictive variable in our entire classification model, trained on ~70 different factors. Our OQ score had zero correlation with having worked at a top-tier company or attending an elite university. The signals most VCs rely on aren’t just noisy, they’re blinding. The best founders don’t signal like everyone else, they don’t think like everyone else, and they certainly don’t build like everyone else. If you want to spot breakout talent before the rest of the market, stop screening for conformity. Back the founders the system was built to filter out.
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Who is the best CEO few people are talking about?
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Opportunity cost is one of the most difficult investment ideas to internalize - and one of the most valuable.
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Sidecar Investor retweeted
Why do individual investors or small funds buy mega cap stocks? Thousands of investors are looking at those companies, and you have no advantage there. Look for ‘hidden gems’ where your smaller size works in your favor.
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10.4 miles, 3300 vertical feet. Nothing clears the mind like spending time in nature.
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