My estimates for
$EQR.AX's Q4 FY2026 financial results:
It's still almost 2 months until we will see the actual results, and Q4 FY2026 hasn't finished yet, but I do dare to make a preliminary estimate for the current quarter.
First of all, I expect Barruecopardo to produce slightly more than last quarter, so 19,000 mtu. Mt Carbine had a weak last quarter, but is rapidly improving. We know that Mt Carbine had at least 4,737 mtu in April. I expect that trend to continue as they are actively processing the higher-grade ore from the lolanthe vein. So from Mt Carbine, I expect ~17,200 mtu this quarter.
For the months March, April, May and June, I assume the average tungsten prices of $2,250/mtu, $2,800/mtu, $3,100/mtu and $3,100/mtu respectively. Note that we do not know the average tungsten price for June yet, so I assume it to be the same as May for now.
We now know that Barruecopardo works with real-time prices, and Mt Carbine with a 1-month lag. So for Barruecopardo, I take the average of April, May and June, which is $3,000/mtu. For Mt Carbine, I take the 1-month lag, meaning that I need to take the average of the months March, April and May, which is ~$2,718/mtu.
I assume a payability ratio of 75% for both and a AUD/USD exchange rate of 0.70. Net costs for Barruecopardo and Mt Carbine are assumed to be $500/mtu and $550/mtu respectively for now.
From Barruecopardo, I expect revenue to come in at: ($3,000 / 0.70) * 19000 * 0.75 = 61,071,428.57 AUD.
From Mt Carbine, I expect revenue to come in at:
($2716.67 / 0.70) * 17,237 * 0.75 = 50,171,982.14 AUD.
In total, revenue is therefore expected to be 111,243,410.71 AUD.
Net profit is expected to be 47,500,000 AUD from Barruecopardo and 36,628,625 AUD from Mt Carbine. In total, I expect net profit to be 84,128,625 AUD.
Obviously, these are rough estimates. We don't know the average tungsten price for June yet, and my average tungsten prices may be slightly off from the true values. Furthermore, the assumed net costs/mtu may differ from reality as well, and production numbers may vary significantly.
Nevertheless, these estimates should give you a decent picture of the potential blowout we can expect in Q4 FY2026. Note that
$EQR.AX's current market cap is only ~1.22bn AUD. In the picture below you can see an overview of my estimates.