I've been visiting as many robotics companies as I can in San Francisco. And elsewhere (next week I'm heading to Abu Dhabi to meet technologists who are doing the same there).
Understanding how robots are trained is leading me to a new thesis:
Tesla will be able to do everything that
@1x_tech showed, and much much more, but completely autonomously, by the end of next year.
Why?
The 12,000 workers at Tesla's Fremont Factory (it's first factory, and where Optimus is being designed).
Remember the workers who used to drive cars from the end of the factory line to where they get loaded on carriers to be delivered to customers around the United States?
Why haven't we seen any of them say "I got laid off today?"
Or try to organize us to be anti robots or anti AI?
Because they are doing what
@1x_tech's first customers are doing: cleaning dishes, watering plants, doing laundry, but more importantly, helping teams working with others on the factory floor capture the data from workers on the factory floor, among other tasks.
Every robot company tells me they don't have enough data to "go generalized."
And this data collection doesn't need a highly skilled AI genius with a PhD from Carnegie Mellon. It just needs an organization of people who are doing the same kinds of tasks over and over, while being watched by a camera, or teleoperating a robot, or wearing sensors on their fingers as they do something more advanced than picking up a trash can.
And then that data must be tagged properly. This is a skill that requires a little bit of human intelligence, but not much. At
@1x_tech's launch party the other night I met a guy who runs a company that does that kind of tagging.
It's not work that requires a whole lot of human intelligence. You need to bring a video, captured on the factory floor, into a computer screen, and then you need to manually tag everything that's happening in the video. A multi-modal AI does most of that work, so you just need to check what it perceived carefully and maybe add some more details. Like if it says a trash can was full, but it perceived that a little wrong, you fix it to say, "actually that's 7/8ths full." Accuracy matters, not smartness on the behalf of the human doing that work.
Remember the guy I shared with you last week who is building a blackberry-picking robot at
@fdotinc in San Francisco? That's exactly what he is doing. A lot of what he is doing to build the computer vision system that sees blackberries, and understands them, is just mind-numbing repetition. He's picking up blackberries with his robot over and over and over and over. And then tagging anything his AI systems get wrong.
That's to build a robot that does ONE THING. Pick blackberries off of a bush and put them into a box.
The thing is Elon has 12,000 people who are doing the same in the factory. One guy is connecting wires under the dash in a new Tesla. He does that every 45 seconds. All day long. I watched him work at Tesla's factory. And most workers building a car are doing something similar.
Someone has to work with that guy to put a camera on his face, or sensors on his hands, to understand that task. But it is the worker who has value here in training the robot.
Tesla has the worker. Figure does too, but in a far less efficient way (it had to partner with other companies to do the same) and 1x doesn't have either, so has to get people to buy the robot, to complete the data collection.
Now 1x's approach might lead to understanding of homes that Tesla can't get. My dishwasher is slightly different than yours is. How I put plates into my cabinets is slightly different than yours is. So getting even 1,000 robots into homes will let 1x's NEO do the data collection on many homes, which will lead them to have a totally autonomous robot within three years too.
But it comes down to "can you collect the data from many different humans and their lives?"
Now, yes, we can simulate a whole lot of that. Last night I met a guy at
@jowyang's AI startup launch event who can scan a factory floor, or my kitchen, bring it into a system, and do a lot of that training in a simulator with virtual beings. I'll have that video up in a bit.
But Tesla has the best advantage here, with the best AI workflows and systems, which is why Tesla's cars are self driving in my neighborhood and no others are.
I see it as the only company that has a credible shot at competing with the Chinese head on. Oh, and Tesla has another factory in China with another 12,000 workers. And another factory in Europe with another 12,000 workers. And another factory in Austin with another 12,000 workers. And another few factories in Nevada and New York and elsewhere. The Chinese don't. And neither does anyone else in San Francisco building robots.
So, by 2030, who do you think has the robot that does the most?
My thesis is Tesla.
Do you have another thesis? Bring it on. Explain to me how you will collect all the data.
I once interviewed the innovation team at Volkswagen. I asked "when are you going to put a camera on your workers to train AI's?" They said "we can't do that due to labor laws." In Detroit I asked the same and heard "Unions are hard to deal with."
The Fremont Factory has no Union. Why not? Because the traditional automakers laid them off, so they hate the Unions. And are highly innovative, which is why they are compensated far better than any other automaker workers in the world.
They are training robots. And building robots.
And next year you will see their work. By 2030 I don't believe anyone will be able to compete with them.
Tell me why I'm wrong.