better than rest at meaningless stats. product of the snake pit. email me at smartbackwards at gmail dot com
Joined March 2021
- Tweets 2,175
- Following 321
- Followers 5,609
- Likes 4,407
1,137 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
we're saying goodbye to PARIVISION, but hello to a project i've had on the backburner for a while - map dashboards
it features some stats ive developed: the map win probability chart, xR, EEK and, as a little treat, something new - impact rounds (name wip), number of rounds in which according to my round swing calculation a player had over a 25% impact on the round being won
it should tell you everything that happened in a given map at a glance - here we see that PARI had a big lead and despite shaky stuff from legacy, dumau and latto were enough to pull the comeback over the finish line.
looking for feedback! wont post these for every map (maybe for the playoffs), but let me know if you even like this or not
4
4
120
3,704
another 9-3 comeback! thats nuts
this win probability chart is more fun though
1
44
2,485
CHASING HISTORY - UPDATE #3
today, karrigan got 27 kills and was economically expected to get 34.5 in 69 rounds of play. his differential per 24 rounds for today was -2.61, which lowered his average for the season down two ticks to -2.26
he remains third.
Jun 12
CHASING HISTORY - UPDATE #2
today, karrigan got 18 kills and was economically expected to get 27.6 frags in 47 rounds of play. his differential per 24 rounds for today was -4.90
this means he has jumped Snappi from 2024 season 1 and is now the 3rd worst LAN firepower player since 2016
2
84
5,819
Jun 12
at Cologne we had 140 first halves, 33 ended 10-2/11-1/12-0, for a 23.6% percentage
prior to Cologne this year, only 16.5% of first halves ended this lopsidedly - a 40% increase
btrams stats bureau, confirming vibes since 2024
Jun 12
full vibes, no facts.. but it feels like there is a disproportionate amount of landslide halves at the major
3
9
321
18,016
Jun 12
thank god for best of threes, can't take anything away from 9z
1
7
399
12,876
Jun 12
CHASING HISTORY - UPDATE #2
today, karrigan got 18 kills and was economically expected to get 27.6 frags in 47 rounds of play. his differential per 24 rounds for today was -4.90
this means he has jumped Snappi from 2024 season 1 and is now the 3rd worst LAN firepower player since 2016
Jun 11
CHASING HISTORY - UPDATE #1
against G2, karrigan got 30 kills and was economically expected to get 40.2, giving him a per 24 differential of -3.35
his season total is now -2.14, still in 4th place
7
6
180
73,939
Jun 12
okay this seems impossible but last night on ancient in the second half of regulation, karrigan damaged an opponent 5 TIMES IN 12 ROUNDS
6.8 ADR
Jun 12
karrigan in rounds 13-24 this major:
0-10
0-7
2-9
2-10
4-36, for a cool 0.09 KPR and a 0.11 K/D
5
12
655
33,526
Jun 12
karrigan in rounds 13-24 this major:
0-10
0-7
2-9
2-10
4-36, for a cool 0.09 KPR and a 0.11 K/D
30
48
2,982
137,938
Jun 12
whee
the Mongolz spent almost 2/3rds of that mirage map against B8 being 75% favorites, they had 7 separate stints at 95% or above, yet in the meantime let their opponents reach 87.7% in OT
calmest MongolZ close out
1
1
32
1,800
Jun 12
parivision might just be very tired boys (xielo especially, here he is top of the table again in a 10-2)
Jun 11
parivision pound for pound worst vibes i've ever seen
this was at 5-7 down at the half btw (and with xielo going 15-8)
2
4
130
9,325
Jun 12
im also tired - because i watched this team play a best of three
1
11
935
Jun 11
CHASING HISTORY - UPDATE #1
against G2, karrigan got 30 kills and was economically expected to get 40.2, giving him a per 24 differential of -3.35
his season total is now -2.14, still in 4th place
Jun 10
in stage 3, karrigan will not only compete to get into the major playoffs - he's also looking to avoid being among the worst individual seasons of all time.
excluding the online era, his performance in the first half of 2026 ranks the fourth worst of all time when looking at the difference between economically expected kills and his actual kills - he needs to at least be serviceable to climb up the ranks
2
1
63
20,674
Jun 11
sorry for misinforming you guys, 45 of those rounds he had a better gun (presumably AWP) equipped yet i still counted it as a five-seven round
thats stupid of me, i really am sorry
calculated K-EEK only for rounds where people had five-sevens and thankfully ropz still isn't top 1, otherwise that would have been really embarassing for me.
Jun 10
BONUS FURIA FACT: molodoy is the worst Five-SeveN player this year. he should probably stop buying that weapon. he's 3-48 with it equipped and has a -19% average swing in the rounds he has it.
6
1
95
9,212
Jun 11
the 'golz are also the worst team in the major at winning anti-forces (67%) and winning forces (28%)
this cost them against BB - look at rounds that ended in 8-10, 10-11, 11-12 - all of them were anti-eco/anti-forces
Jun 10
7. MONGOLZ - HOW CAN THEY KEEP GETTING AWAY WITH THIS?
they've got bad underlying fragging numbers, yet they win rounds. why is that? i've got a theory
most of the adv. stats we use are based on an economical adjustment, and they're a team that likes to throw economy out the window - they rank 2nd best in terms of win% on eco rounds (12.5%, just behind, who else, Vitality at 16%) and 2nd worst in terms of how often they lose to ecos (87.5%, only ahead of legacy)
there's enough chaos in there to make the models confused, i think
3
1
29
2,013
Jun 10
8. PARIVISION - THEY'RE BAD NOW. ARE FUT GOOD NOW?
there was no real question posed in that segment and if you'd like to watch some roster stuff check out Narrative Mechanic with luz and thorin, so i thought i'd re-visit a chart that i posted about PARI being elite in close games, to see if that might be a reason they dropped off
everyone except for Jame got slightly worse in close games the last 3 months.
on the other side of the coin, almost everyone on FUT solved their choking issues, aside from launx (whose sample is kinda low cause he didnt play fort worth but ya know, narratives).
1
22
2,563
Jun 10
9. SPIRIT - IS JAB JABICH A FRAUD?
let me leave you with this - it turns out that even though we all praised this frog plushie for being a tactical genius, he unfortunately hindered the team in the most important stat of all.
spirit's kills on enemies flashed are back at hally levels...
57
2,260
Jun 10
6. MOUZ - -JIMPPHAT
that was a big move and there presumably had to have been some out of the server reasons for it, since my stats LOVE him as an anchor. before his benching he was:
-> the best A ancient anchor
-> a top 3 B overpass anchor (xfl0ud, esenthial before him who played lesser teams)
-> a top 2 B mirage anchor (behind teses, thank karrigan for moving him to A)
in terms of bombsite holds above average.
put that together with him being average on inferno and you've got yourself a top 5 anchor in the world!
2
2
24
2,952
Jun 10
7. MONGOLZ - HOW CAN THEY KEEP GETTING AWAY WITH THIS?
they've got bad underlying fragging numbers, yet they win rounds. why is that? i've got a theory
most of the adv. stats we use are based on an economical adjustment, and they're a team that likes to throw economy out the window - they rank 2nd best in terms of win% on eco rounds (12.5%, just behind, who else, Vitality at 16%) and 2nd worst in terms of how often they lose to ecos (87.5%, only ahead of legacy)
there's enough chaos in there to make the models confused, i think
1
1
29
4,742