Joined March 2021
- Tweets 865
- Following 2,670
- Followers 519
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239 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
May 2
Tweet 1/8
The QatarEnergy LNG Polymarket dispute is a case study in how UMA's optimistic oracle can get hijacked by narrative over rules.
Market: "QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production by April 30?"Traded at 3¢ NO right before the deadline. Then this happened 👇
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Jun 1
To those who say this market is a scam: you haven’t seen a real scam market. This market is completely legitimate because it has clear time frames, and that’s part of the rules. If you want to see a real scam market, here it is: x.com/sonicalcoholic/status/…
Jun 1
UMA whales are currently trying to resolve the May 31st market as NO on the basis that the sale wasn't announced until today, June 1st
When the rules clearly state the market will be resolved based on information from MSTR & on-chain data:
- Saylor announced 32 BTC were sold in the period ending 4pm on May 31st
- Sale price of $77,135 indicates a sale no later than May 26th
- There are even onchain transfers of $30M BTC from Strategy to Coinbase Prime on May 29th
What more evidence do you want?
HIP-4 fixes this.
Hyperliquid.
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Jun 1
everyone could make money, it was an obvious bet with very good prices
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May 23
challenge is closed.
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May 20
Result for 2 days, mainly trade sports and eSports markets
polymarket.com/?r=bigass
May 17
I traded $10k from $100 in 3 weeks on the polymarket and successfully lost it all on the Qatar Energy market scam.
I'm going to start my challenge again, without the murky political and low-liquidity markets
Subscribe if you want updates, I won't post anything if no one is interested in it
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May 17
I traded $10k from $100 in 3 weeks on the polymarket and successfully lost it all on the Qatar Energy market scam.
I'm going to start my challenge again, without the murky political and low-liquidity markets
Subscribe if you want updates, I won't post anything if no one is interested in it
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May 17
Where did those $100k in the $POLY checker come from? I saw most people with the same amount in tier-based allocation and linear allocation.
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May 9
You people who are unhappy about the market situation regarding the ceasefire Russia and Ukraine, yet who claimed the rules don’t apply to the market regarding the resumption of gas production by QatarEnergy—you fucking hypocrites!
If you think markets should follow their own rules, then that should apply to all markets or to none at all
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May 9
It’s exactly the same thing I wrote about the QatarEnergy market! they just kept harping on an article that didn’t work at all in April, so why did it work when the market was already closing on NO? This is surreal; I don’t believe Polymarket missed this. Apparently, this market just had low participation from a large number of people. I hope something changes, and that it will also affect the QatarEnergy market, where I lost $10k
x.com/sonicalcoholic/status/…
So what prevented them from resolving it as YES at the same time last May? The situation was the same.
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sonic retweeted
May 2
Tweet 1/8
The QatarEnergy LNG Polymarket dispute is a case study in how UMA's optimistic oracle can get hijacked by narrative over rules.
Market: "QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production by April 30?"Traded at 3¢ NO right before the deadline. Then this happened 👇
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May 5
2 recent scandalous markets on the Polymarket clearly ended with an outcome that was obvious to many. You can look at the history of disputes; they all ended the same way.
But in the case of QatarEnergy, you're saying that the obvious outcome will be resolved because the whales decided they could rely to the Kalshi, which ended on April 8? Why, then, didn’t the market on Polymarket close on April 8 along with Kalshi, but instead dropped to 98c?
Until someone decided again on May 1 that the articles from April 8 were still relevant?
Anyone who reads the rules of this market will understand the outcome, but when you go up against the big players, it’s not the rules that matter, it’s the risk of loss for the whales, and consequently, the risk of lost revenue for the bookmaker.
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May 3
I believed in the honesty of the @Polymarket before that, I was guided solely by the rules and nothing else, but today I realized that it is simply a community of whales who can move the price and determine the fate of each individual market
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May 2
Tweet 1/8
The QatarEnergy LNG Polymarket dispute is a case study in how UMA's optimistic oracle can get hijacked by narrative over rules.
Market: "QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production by April 30?"Traded at 3¢ NO right before the deadline. Then this happened 👇
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May 2
A: Source Credibility
Evaluated: Reuters (Apr 8) anonymous sources mistook repairs for production. Liable CEOs (TTE, Exxon) confirmed May 1 that trains need cool down; zero production by Apr 30.
Triple Lock: Operational (Exxon: offline), Financial (Conoco: zeroed Q2 Qatar guidance), Strategic (TTE: awaiting stability).
Apr satellite hotspots = misinterpreted (fires/repairs). Partners cannot hide revenue.
B: Consensus
Corroboration: 100% JV partner alignment:Apr 29 (TTE): Production shut down.
Apr 30 (Conoco): Qatar removed from guidance.
May 1 (Exxon): Trains not operational; 3-5yr repair timeline.
Challenge: YES failed on misinterpretation: Journalists saw ships (stored offtake) and flares (repairs). Operator wins over observer.
Wide Consensus: As of May 2, consensus is No. Apr rumors were deceptive snapshots; official disclosures confirm zero LNG production before deadline.
Links TotalEnergies: investing.com/news/transcrip… seekingalpha.com/article/489… zawya.com/en/projects/oil-an… finance.yahoo.com/sectors/en… ExxonMobil: theguardian.com/business/202… finance.yahoo.com/sectors/en… tikr.com/blog/exxonmobil-q1-…
ConocoPhillips: qz.com/conocophillips-produc… reuters.com/business/energy/…
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May 2
another credible source, dated 01-May-2026 | 16:01 EDT spglobal.com/ratings/en/regu… another one from naturalgasintel (known credible and specialized source for energy sector) naturalgasintel.com/news/gol… agbi.com/oil-and-gas/2026/05… By Valentina Pasquali | May 1, 2026, 1:32 PM for other analyst/research sources x.com/PipelineFlows/status/2… splash247.com/qatar-lng-face… Edit: Added more links. AS PER THE RULES: The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from QatarEnergy (qatarenergy.qa/en/Pages/vHom…); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Consensus of Credible Reporting all point to P1. Rules did not state Kalshi as a resolution source (runs different rules).
Apr 29
QatarEnergy has not yet restarted production, but it has reportedly begun the process to restart. Several Qatari-laden ships have approached the strait in recent weeks and turned back. A single transit does not signal a reopening, and no other LNG tankers have followed yet. criterionrsch.com #NatGas #LNG
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May 2
Tweet 4/8
Then on April 29, TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné on Q1 earnings call:
"At this stage, production is shut down in Qatar."
"There is no production, no revenue, and very logically, QatarEnergy has immediately declared force majeure to its customers."
investing.com/news/transcrip……
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