I was a technical co-founder at three startups. Went through YC, raised millions, one company exited for 9 figures, yada yada... Fable 5 is an entire product team in a box. CTO, VP of engineering, product manager, senior dev, UX expert, UI designer, even sales/marketing... It does it all. And at a much higher level than most humans. Around the clock, multiple threads running simultaneously. I see people saying that token-based billing is a sign the AI bubble is nearing a peak. I don't see an AI bubble. I see a salaried employee bubble. After using Fable 5 I can confidently say: I'd much rather spend $200K on tokens for Fable 5 than hire a single human that does one of those roles (and only on weekdays when they're feeling focused, motivated, etc.) If token billing means choosing between cutting AI usage vs. cutting employees... Every CFO knows which line item goes first. But this tool only produces value in the right hands. The wrong employee will run up a token bill with nothing to show for it. The right employee will turn tokens into bottom-line improvements. If you're an employee, focus on proving you know how to turn tokens into value for your company. OR relationship-max harder than ever. If you're an entrepreneur, you have an entire expert product, marketing, and sales team at your fingertips for a fraction of the cost of the human equivalent. Use it to help other people at scale and you will win big. As an investor... this keeps me very bullish on AI. If you have capital to allocate, you want to put it into an industry seeing exponential growth. And you want to take advantage of all the moments that people lose sight of the big picture. This genie's not going back in the bottle. In fact, it only just escaped.

Unfreezing $24B of Iran's own assets doesn't sound so dramatic when you consider a single US company is going public at a valuation 74x that amount What is a billion dollars anyway? Money isn't even real anymore

$NBIS just got included in the Nasdaq 100. 28% dip complete, time for the next rip. Frontier models are getting too expensive to run everything through. Enterprises will increasingly turn to the Nebius platform for cost-effective AI agents. Mastercard is the latest customer. Many more to follow. $500B and eventually $1T market cap company in the making. 10-20x from here. Just watch.

- Trump's 30th peace deal on Iran - SpaceX worth double every listed company in Italy combined - $39 Trillion in debt in under 250 years (world record) - Europeans in awe over Bass Pro Shop and PB&J Is America back?

Mission accomplished. Many good names back at key support levels. Leverage wiped. run it back praise be to Allah

AI just got truly useful 4-5 months ago Imagine Facebook or Google launched 4 months ago and you were like "oh I missed the internet trade"

Trump is reloading the TACO clip so he can unload it again before mid-terms run the stops on the plebs for his buddies, then resume up-only I'm going on a bike ride

Get drinks with your people, crack some jokes, enjoy a sunset. Life doesn't need to be complicated. Embrace eurosummer.

"max pain is up" no brother, max pain is spending endless hours focused on something that is entirely outside of your control and repeatedly kicks you in the nuts every four years ask me how I know absolutely critical that you guard your time and emotion one life 🫡

🚨 It's not just ZCash. Opus 4.8 also found a vulnerability in $USD that allows for unlimited issuance which could theoretically enrich insiders at the expense of all holders huge breaking

"AI is a bubble" We're never going back to writing code manually or thinking through things on our own. Invest accordingly.

I was paying for tavily for two of my projects before I knew that Nebius owns them Part of why I own Nebius is because they've made very intelligent acquisitions which makes me feel like their upside is limited only by their ambition and vision Which is to say there's no limit

The most important thing to internalize as an investor right now: Demand for intelligence is infinite. As long as there are problems to solve, there will be demand for the intelligence to solve them. The demand scales with the click of a button... But the supply is constrained by the physical world (chips, energy, grid, etc.) So demand will outstrip supply for a long time. Once you understand this, You just buy and hold the companies that will have way more demand than supply for the foreseeable future. Give your capital to the teams that understood this early and have been treating shareholders well. And benefit from a once in a lifetime transition from a human intelligence economy to a machine intelligence economy. Hoist your sails and let the generational tailwinds compound your capital. It won't be smooth sailing the whole way. But we're never going back to humans doing all the mental labor. AI will continue to proliferate. It will enter the physical world via robots, autonomous vehicles, and smart sensors. Understand this and it's easy to build long-term conviction in certain assets. For me $NBIS and $OUST have become high-conviction holds. Nebius is becoming a leading supplier of intelligence for the new economy. They're selling intelligence 2-4x cheaper than OpenAI and Anthropic. Demand is off the charts and margins are expanding. Ouster is building the vision hardware and software that helps robots, autonomous vehicles, and sensors make sense of the real world. Easy theses. And they work for me. But the most important thing is to own SOME piece of this revolution. I like a barbell approach: AI revolution bets on one side, and investing in real world maxxing on the other side. The faster my capital compounds, the more focused I become on squeezing every bit of life out of my finite time here. This is ultimately the promise of this revolution. Let the machines crunch the numbers and click the buttons. And free us up to become more human. Next post will be about real-world maxxing. Which is arguably the harder thing to nail.

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Explosive hill sprints while the suits trip over themselves to copy-trade Leopold and pump $NBIS to new highs. BBQ chicken & veg on the plancha, enjoyed al fresco Eurosummer off to a great start. Playbook below. 🫡

Yes, I think comparing Nebius with IREN is apples and oranges. They aren't just trying to build extra capacity for hyperscalers. IREN is basically: We have a ton of secured power and can plug in GPUs so Microsoft can run their software on our hardware and fulfill more of their demand. Nebius is: We are the most cost-effective source of tokens for any enterprise that needs world-class AI infrastructure but doesn't want to worry about actually plugging in GPUs, provisioning, scaling up/down, security, access control, etc. They are a full-service cloud solution, and importantly, that gives them more room for margins (which are expanding) There's a lot of engineering that goes into serving the most cost-effective tokens and making the cloud experience user friendly. And that's where they are shining. They are building user-friendly cloud services that a wide range of enterprises can use, and they are ~2-4x cheaper than OpenAI and Anthropic. So imagine you're building AI into your product. If you go with Nebius instead of OpenAI or Anthropic, your compute bill is going to be VASTLY cheaper because they are so focused on inference optimization. Iren is plugging in GPUS. Nebius is delivering the most cost-effective intelligence. Two very different value props.

So ol' Leopold made Nebius his largest position too. Very interesting. They're on a generational run to $500B and eventually >$1T market cap IMO. Potential 10-20x from here over the next 5-10 years. It's extremely rare to get such alignment between: Team Opportunity Size Vision Price Execution Team The founder was building search engines before Google was founded. This guy has been in the zone for like 30 years. He built the Google of Russia from $0 -> $30B market cap doing everything from search to ride-sharing. The team has elite technical experience building and optimizing cloud services. Opportunity size Nebius will become one of the leading suppliers of intelligence for the new economy. Read that again. Physical and digital AI use cases will be powered by Nebius' Token Factory. Token consumption is going exponential and they are focused on becoming the most cost-effective source of tokens. The opportunity size isn't just replacing all the mental labor of humans. It's orders of magnitude larger than that because machines think and scale much faster than humans. Demand for intelligence scales VERY quickly. Much faster than supply. Vision While most companies were focused purely on raw power and GPUs to enable massive model training, Nebius decided to focus on inference compute. It's now clear that inference is the much larger opportunity long-term. And after acquiring Eigen AI and Clarifai, Nebius has the most technically capable team for optimizing AI inference compute. They also have delivery bots and self-driving cars deployed in the US, running inference on Nebius infrastructure. Which means they are gaining expertise in physical AI compute before the wave arrives. They are one of the best positioned companies to benefit from the coming explosion of robots, autonomous vehicles, drones, smart sensors, etc. Price After building the "Google of Russia" (Yandex) they were forced to start fresh with Nebius when the Russia - Ukraine war broke out. That was an opportunity to buy a world class team starting nearly from scratch. Imagine if the founders of Google started over with all of their connections, knowledge, and experience. Today it's a ~$50B company with $500B - $1T potential. A 10-20x from here is reasonable if they continue to execute as they have. Execution They continually surpass expectations. Last earnings: - ARR up 674% YoY(!) - Margins on AI cloud are expanding - Contracted capacity 3.5 gigawatts (exceeding 3GW target) and targeting 4GW by year end And that was before they raised prices by 30% due to insane demand. This is an all-star team firing on all cylinders in one of the hottest growth industries we've ever seen. Bonus Nebius also owns 25% of ClickHouse, which is basically a better SnowFlake. SnowFlake is valued at $60B right now. More valuable than all of Nebius. ClickHouse will likely IPO and has a chance to go on an insane run of its own. And you get that upside for free when you buy Nebius. When I was buying in the ~$40B market cap range, the price was already near all-time-highs But I told myself - when this is a $500B company, will I care that I bought at all-time-high prices? Obviously not. Just like someone who bought Bitcoin at $21K in 2020 wasn't sad that they were buying an all-time-high. It turns out Leopold Aschenbrenner was buying at the same time. "In investing and in life... it's a lot more fun to join the winning team than to be jealous that they're winning" That was actually a tweet about Nebius.