Data Scientist at Intuit/Mailchimp. I like to share random musings on R, Stats, and College Football
Joined June 2010
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28 Jul 2016
I've uploaded some CFB Data for open source use github.com/mattmills49/CFB_A… 10 years of
Team recruit rankings
Draft Picks
Schedule and Results
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Jun 1
Very cool to find a well written statistics blog post like we used to see all the time on this app: @bruno_nicenboim giving a walkthrough of Ordinal Models with {brms} bruno.nicenboim.me/posts/pos… #rstats
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May 12
CFB/NFL Legend Ndamukong Suh going full YIMBY belongs in @TheZvi ‘s next housing roundup.
May 11
Everyone wants more housing. Until it’s time to actually build it.
The shortage isn’t supply. It’s the system that decides whether supply gets built.
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Apr 9
You can extend Gradient Boosting to fit many more models than just target predictions. My blog post from earlier this week walks through how you can fit the coefficients of smoothing splines with Gradient Boosting statmills.com/2026-04-06-gra…
Apr 7
I have a new blog post out today that I'm really excited about. I walk through how you can use Gradient Boosting to fit entire vectors of parameters for each observation, not just a single prediction.
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Apr 7
I have a new blog post out today that I'm really excited about. I walk through how you can use Gradient Boosting to fit entire vectors of parameters for each observation, not just a single prediction.
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Apr 7
The result is smooth curves that can learn high dimensional interaction effects that you can fit at scale!
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Mar 25
I've got a new blog post out about how to do proper Data Science in the age of LLMs. My thesis is that DS is a multiplicative process which separates it from more traditional software dev; if one assumption is off then the result is wrong in a way it isn't with a UI (1/3)
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Mar 25
My biggest struggle is that AI can produce code that runs but may violate an assumption about the data; observations get dropped, duplicated, or mis-aligned without you knowing (2/3)
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Mar 25
This is a very *rough* framework I know, but it was helpful for me to think about it in this way to figure out what tools and processes I needed to build to improve the generated code I use for data analysis. I hope its helpful to others as well. statmills.com/2025-05-03-dat…
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7 Sep 2025
10 of the 11 writers list FSU as making the playoff, none of them include Clemson at all, and yet at Fanduel right now Clemson is still the favorite to win the ACC at 185 sportsbook.fanduel.com/navig…
7 Sep 2025
College Football Playoff predictions: Who's most likely to make the field - via @ESPN App espn.com/college-football/st…
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7 Sep 2025
Fun wrinkle for GT this year; only 3 conference opponents are playing better than expected. Technically FPI has us favored in every game until UGA lol @FTRSJoey
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7 Sep 2025
FPI still has preseason projections built in, so even if teams play to their current ratings the changes from the preseason should get more drastic as the current season gets more weight.
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15 May 2025
I'd guess you'd find the same results in basketball as well, the game the same it just got more fierce. youtube.com/watch?v=fp4but75…
15 May 2025
NEW with @KuperSimon
The prevailing narrative around increased injuries and player workload in elite football is wrong.
Players don’t play more football than in the past. What has changed is a sharp rise in intensity of play.
Not more minutes, but each minute exerts more load.
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7 May 2025
Sharing for the morning crowd; My latest blog post covers how you can fit shape constrained models in python leveraging splines and JAX
7 May 2025
My latest blog post is a walk-through of how Shape Constrained P-splines work and how you can use them to fit a curve of any arbitrary shape like monotonically increasing or decreasing
#pydata #pystats #datascience #MachineLearning
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7 May 2025
My latest blog post is a walk-through of how Shape Constrained P-splines work and how you can use them to fit a curve of any arbitrary shape like monotonically increasing or decreasing
#pydata #pystats #datascience #MachineLearning
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7 May 2025
This means you can enforce arbitrary shapes, even convex and concave, but still leverage all the benefits of a traditional GAM. Even better they are so straightforward you can fit them using general optimization packages like {jax} and {scipy}
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