As promised, I would like to share my personal exit strategy with you for the upcoming bull cycle.
This strategy has taken me from 4 figures to well into 6 figures in 2021, and it allowed me to sell most of my altcoins in time.
The most important thing to keep in mind is that Bitcoin is the leader in the entire market, so it should be a key factor in your plans for both buying and selling.
The years 2022 and 2023 are mainly for expanding long-term bags. Presumably, the years 2024 and 2025 will be for gradually scaling out, but as mentioned, Bitcoin will lead the way in this regard.
There are many indicators to determine a possible top. But to keep it simple, the first major target is to partially scale out as Bitcoin approaches its ATH. So, around the $60K Bitcoin range, I personally start scaling out some of my long-term bags. It also depends on how altcoins react by that time.
I'll probably take at least 20% of all my bags at that point. If altcoins have performed well, you'll have derisked your entire bag with that 20% and even made a solid profit. That will vary from one altcoin to another. Some altcoins may have only gone x5-10, while others may have gone x50-100. It's difficult to estimate right now. But the goal is to derisk secure first profits.
Derisked, now what?
Possibly, Bitcoin will consolidate around the ATH, giving altcoins some room for a rally. That's another moment to secure some profits, depending on how strong the rally is. During that rally, altcoins all perform differently. You need to assess them one by one and decide which altcoins to partially sell and which ones not to. It's difficult to estimate right now, but selling around 10-20% again around the Bitcoin ATH is reasonable.
In summary, when Bitcoin is at its ATH, you would have secured around 30-40%. The remaining 60-70% will be secured gradually as Bitcoin has another strong rally, reaching, for example, $100K, and then consolidates, giving altcoins room for a new rally. Then, you secure larger amounts again.
Ok derisked profits, now what?
Of course, we don't know how high Bitcoin will ultimately go, but you should be more flexible with the last half of your bag. You are already derisked, and you've already made nice profits. Now, you should gradually look for signals of a possible top and sell small amounts each time (5%-10%).
When altcoins show very large green candles for several days/weeks in a row, those are also moments to sell small quantities (like few % each time).
A good indicator for this is when you find yourself eager to take a screenshot of the price that has made several X's in just a few days or a screenshot of your PnL. That's the moment to immediately secure some profits (for example, 5% at a time).
Be cautious, just as there is a lot of FUD around the bottom, there is always a lot of bullish talk around the top. People promise you X1000 returns, do Rolex giveaways, boast, and the news claims Bitcoin is the future, and so on. These are all top signals. You don't even need a chart for that.
Moonbags
We agree that once we decide to take profits on a long-term altcoin, we won't buy it back. Profit is profit. This is where the aspect of the 'moonbag' comes into play. Regardless of how much profit you've made, you never sell your entire bag.
You have to accept that you'll never sell at the top. You can plan to keep around 5-10% as a moonbag and hold onto it for when it goes x10 from the top. With your moonbag, you sell a small portion each time and retain your new moonbag. If it goes x2 again, you sell a portion again, and so on.
The most important thing here is: once sold, don't buy back. Buying was done in 2022/2023. Enjoy your profits and change your life. You deserved it.