Hey guys. After much deliberation I’ve decided I’ll be leaving X. I’ve set up a Bluesky named Tim Sumo with the same profile pic. Let’s keep the convo going over there. Just can’t stay on this platform with all the baggage that comes with it.
I’ll be interested to see how the other rikishi respond to Hoshoryu’s promotion. Will the remaining Ozekis look more motivated, will people be coming after him and each other? Will it be business as usual.
That’ll be my last kinboshi related post but when Hoshoryu loses a match or two we now have data to point to to say that yes that is a normal rate of losses.
Since Akebono the winning rate of Yokozuna’s vs Maegashira is 86% mean 14% of the time a Yokozuna fought a maegashira they gave out a kinboshi. This means given 9 matches against Maegashira in March we would expect 1-2 kinboshis from Hoshoryu to be average.
Harumafuji and Asashoryu’s numbers are a little inflated by the fact they were expelled and didn’t have an end of career decline the rest did. Kisenosato and Wakanohana’s are deflated because their decline began fairly soon after their promotion.
Will Hoshoryu give away a lot of kinboshis? How will we know?
A kinboshi happens when a Yokozuna is defeated on the dohyo by a maegashira. At Ozeki when Hoshoryu has faced Maegashira wrestlers his record is:
63 win 25 losses.
Winning 72%
Is this good?
Let’s check the stats
What we see here are the guys who probably weren’t good enough coming in under 60-65% (whether due to ability or injury) and the guys up over 70 who probably were good enough but either hit too many other high rankers or couldn’t put together the run for other reasons.
I’ve followed this stat for a while and think it’s really useful to see where an Ozeki is at. Some periods like the 2010s have tons of Ozekis and Yokozunas so it’s hard to tell how good guys are on record alone but the quality of M1-M4 is probably a lot more constant.
I think I’ll just have to be content with the fact that Takakeisho absolutely earned the title of Yokozuna twice and was denied cos he was either too short, not a belt fighter or was Takanohana’s prodigy. Nothing else really makes sense at this point.
Onosato went 10-5 this basho and I think just about everyone agrees it was a pretty disappointing performance. That is telling. 10-5, 2 off the lead is disappointing. Imagine a fired up Onosato in March, 10-5 is his floor, what is his ceiling?
It looks like Hoshoryu is going to be promoted to Yokozuna. This is a guy I’ve had high hopes for since his debut. He’s had to be compared to his uncle of all people for his whole career but he’s done things his way instead. He’s earned everything he gets. Amazing rikishi.
I’m really hoping we get a few Yokozuna. The Mongolian era feels over. Hoshoryu is one of a bunch of super talented Yokozuna level talents and the rest are all Japanese. Could we see Kotozakura and Onosato join him soon. Three young stars all doing their dohyo iri would be epic